Chapter 28: The Big Short (15)
Livermore only shrugged his shoulders at the announcement of Standard and Moody's, and did not show any unusual color - unspoken rules are just unspoken rules, what is there to make a fuss about, only small shareholders who don't understand anything think that it is fair and fair and open - who believes who is stupid! The United States is quite good, the major consortia check and balance each other, small companies do not dare to move, large conglomerates must also take into account the social impact and cannot act too recklessly, the credibility of some countries is much lower, the official cutting leeks are eager to uproot them, and in the name of protecting the interests of small and medium-sized investors......
At 3:38, the stock index stubbornly regained 400 points, and it seemed to be the same as before, to have a V-shaped flip in one day, but Livermore found an unusual situation: that is, with the rebound of the stock index, the buy orders did not rise synchronously, but some sell orders were pouring out one after another, which shows that today's round of decline has hit the market hard, and he understood the reason after a little pondering.
Union Bank withdrew nearly 500 million from the stock market, and these 500 million shares must be taken over to maintain the pattern of continued circulation, and at today's moment when the highest decline is as high as 14-15%, not to mention 10 times, 8 times, or 6 times the leverage will be liquidated, so the 500 million needs to consume at least nearly 100 million US dollars in additional margin. In the morning, those investors who sold stocks have automatically settled the previous financing purchase agreement, and then re-buy is a new position and structure, in other words, the decline in leverage ratio and the rise in interest rates have been greatly adjusted - in the Fed's favorite phrase, it is "deleveraging and risk reduction", which is nothing more than a forced reduction.
And even if the points rebound, the illiquid tickets are not the same as the blue chips with good liquidity, the blue chips have rebounded a lot, and the small tickets, especially the theme and concept speculation stocks, have rebounded less, after figuring out this, Livermore informed the traders: "Adjust the rhythm, close the small ticket positions more, and wait for them to rebound tomorrow before emptying!" Before closing, the focus is still on empty blue chips! ”
At the end of the day, the stock market points are still slowly rising, and the overall book floating profit of the United Trust has shrunk to less than 400 million, but if you add the 90 million that has been pocketed, today's floating profit is nearly 500 million, although it is slightly less than the floating profit of more than 700 million in the heyday, but now the position structure is very reasonable, and the initiative is mastered.
The closing bell rang, and the Dow Jones closed at 406 points - which not only means that the day's decline is more than 7%, but also means that the entire August and September a month and a half of rally has been wiped out in one day today.
The news of the decline in the stock market alarmed Hoover, who in the afternoon made a press release to the public at the White House, saying: "...... The United States has a good commercial foundation, production and distribution have not lost their previous balance, and even if there are some problems, they will not cause fatal damage to the national economy, and our finances, industry, trade, and finance as a whole are relatively healthy......
This speech was delivered at the moment when Livermore closed one-eighth of his position, so the final display to investors was an illustration with a lower shadow with a gap low. After his speech, Mellon told him about the run on Union Bank today, and Hoover had to continue to call Contini again to ask how the situation was and if he needed other support.
Contini's reply was very interesting: "Thank you for your concern, we don't need support for the time being, but there is one thing that must be taken seriously, whether it can withstand it and whether to apply for external assistance needs to be kept confidential, and if the information leaks out, I dare not guarantee that there will be no cascading effect......"
Hoover nodded: "This is natural, we must strictly adhere to the bottom line of no systemic risk......"
"In fact, the gas in the stock market has begun to leak, we are ventilating, and now we only hope that the Federal Reserve will not be so stupid, knowing that the leak and daring to take candles in, it will really blow people to pieces!"
Hoover was speechless, and after a moment said, "At least a little down today, in line with their expectations, these boring bankers should be satisfied, right?" Aren't they clamoring every day to reduce leverage and de-risk? A lot of risk has been unleashed today. ”
At 7 o'clock in the evening, countless reporters crowded into the press conference on time to hear what Contini and the United Group had to say, but as usual, there was some news.
“…… From the opening of the bank today to 6 o'clock in the afternoon, except for two 20-minute working meal breaks, all outlets and all counters have been running at full speed to meet the withdrawal requirements of the majority of depositors, and so far, nearly 65 million yuan has been withdrawn from the bank, which is in line with expectations; We will keep operating 24 hours a day until all customers are able to get their deposits back. Alessandro glanced at the venue, "In order to ensure that Union Bank survives the difficulties, the Bank has taken the following measures today: First, it has completely sold off more than $500 million of shares held by the Bank, and has now completed all ...... reductions."
"Buzzing", the venue suddenly turned to each other, and everyone was excited: the source of today's plunge seems to have been found, and it turned out to be a big sell-off by Union Bank! However, selling is also the right of people, when the market was rescued, it was said that there is no reduction below 350 points, how many points now? 450 points have passed!
"Second, the United Group will find a way to make payments to the United Bank; Thirdly, a strictly limited withdrawal process is adopted, and each customer can only withdraw a maximum of $1,000 per queue to show fairness. Alright, now for the free question time. ”
"Your Excellency, is today's stock market plunge caused by the sell-off of Union Bank?"
"I don't think so, what is the volume of the stock market today? 17.9 billion! How much was the sell-off at Union Bank? But it's only 500 million. Influencing 17.9 billion with 500 million? I don't think I'm so capable. Contini smiled and said, "The stock market adjustment is an internal law, not something I can push alone, if I can, then it will be too simple to make a fortune, I want the stock market to rise, and I want to fall - then I am God......"
The crowd burst into laughter.
"Do you think the stock market will rebound tomorrow? We have heard that several large banks, represented by Citibank, are announcing the establishment of stock market stability maintenance funds......"
"I just said, I can't! Since the president of the United Group, which is larger than Citibank, said no, I believe that no one dares to pat his chest and say that I can! Perhaps you could go to Mr. Rockefeller and Mr. Morgan and ask if they have what it takes to hold it down. "Mr. Mitchell's words just show his confidence and attitude, if he could, I wouldn't mind doing a deal with him - the United Group has nearly 1.7 billion shares in his hands, if he wants, I'll give him 1.6 billion now, anyone?" I made it clear at last week's summit that if you think U.S. stocks are in short supply, it's easy to do, I have a 30 billion Italian heavy industry asset package, and I can take it all to list, someone or? ”
Many reporters exchanged heads, and it seems that the president's attitude is still very clear, and he is not optimistic about the market outlook.
"Will you continue to reduce your stock holdings?"
"There is no need for this for the time being, it depends on the situation of the bank run, I just reduced my holdings by 500 million US dollars, which can be used for bank support for several days." Contini smiled, "But this sentence does not apply to ordinary investors, my leverage is very low, the highest is not more than 3 times, many of them have a leverage as high as 5-6 times, I think everyone needs a determination to actively reduce leverage - active reduction is much better than passive reduction!" ”
The reporters immediately calculated: 65 million were killed in one day, 130 million in 24 hours, and 500 million seemed to only last for 4 days? Someone immediately brought up the question.
"That's a good question, but there's a premise – there will be such a large amount of withdrawals in the next 4 days! As far as I know, many New Yorkers have already drained their deposits, and there is no chance of another round tomorrow. Of course, I need the press to spread the confidence, as you did to Mr. Mitchell – to tell the people that there is nothing wrong with Union Bank, otherwise all the banks will be affected. ”
"Will you move back the positions that were transferred to Europe?"
Francisco took the microphone: "We will strictly fulfill the contract, respect every customer, do not collect loans in advance, and open withdrawals - this is the only way to rebuild confidence, there is no second way!" ”
"If your bank's cash flow can't support ......"
Contini emphasized: "It will not be untenable, Union Bank is the core asset of the Union Group, it is the corporate image of the company, and for me, a person who regards credibility as his life, I will protect it at all costs - the Union Group will use up the last dollar for the defense of Union Bank!" ”
Everyone applauded: this was the president's strongest statement on a run to date.
"Mr. President, we got the news that another investor has just jumped off the building, it is said that he has always been famous, this is the seventh investor to jump off the building today, what is your comment on this?"
"I mourn their unfortunate deaths, and I am saddened to hear this news......," Contini paused, then his face was full of anger, "It must be clear to everyone what is the root cause of the loss of these investors, because some institutions have repeatedly talked about deleveraging and reducing risk, so that today's tragedy has been caused, and if they had taken my advice, relaxed the monetary policy, and slowly and gradually increased the margin requirements, all this could have been avoided......"
"Excuse me, are some institutions ......?"
Contini interrupted a reporter's question: "I promised the president not to blame other people for the time being, to reflect more on myself, to say more things that are conducive to the overall situation and the market, and less to say things that are not conducive to unity and stability...... Well, and, don't say curses! - At least not during the time in the United States. ”
"Hah!" The whole room burst into laughter, and everyone was amused by Contini's black humor - the president obviously said everything, and finally said "talk more and talk less about nothing", which was really interesting. No, such an interesting launch will come tomorrow! Don't miss out! With the president here, there is no news.