And judging by the current situation, the Japanese fleet is the least afraid of a decisive battle at sea! The firepower of the last 4 quasi-dreadnoughts is already a footnote to the decisive battle. Pen "Fun" Pavilion www.biquge.info13 or 14 capital ships fight 8 capital ships from afar, as long as you can catch it, it is almost impossible to lose! With such a low-risk, easy-to-operate battle, it is impossible for the Japanese not to consider it!

Therefore, Ruprecht **** judged that if the Japanese were going to launch a surprise attack on the Russian fleet, then they would choose to attack the Russian fleet as it went to the Far East. As for whether it will be in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, or any other place, it is difficult to say, as long as Japan can inflict heavy damage on the Baltic Fleet that Russia has come from afar, then the overall situation at sea is almost decided, as long as it can be optimistic about Vladivostok.

So the way to start the war has been determined, and the other thing that needs to be determined is the question of time, when will Japan choose to go to war? Judging from the current situation, the last two battleships ordered by the Japanese Navy will return to Japan in March next year, and after arriving in Japan, after a period of rest and adaptation, they will be able to form combat effectiveness in June. In other words, if you look at it purely from the Japanese point of view, they can launch an offensive in June.

The prince then considered a scenario, if the Japanese army moved first, landed on the Liaodong Peninsula under the cover of the navy, and then took Port Arthur in a relatively short time, in this case, even if the Baltic Fleet came, it would only have to go to Vladivostok, and Vladivostok had a freezing period, and the Russian fleet could not leave the port in winter. The advantage of this was that even if the Japanese navy did not intercept its opponents, Japanese sea transportation would be safe until the end of the Vladivostok freeze period in 1904. But the problem is that at the same time it is tantamount to leaving a respite for the Russians.

8 battleships of the Baltic Fleet plus 4 battleships in Vladivostok, this is 12 ships, and if it drags on for a long time, what if the Americans provide Russia with a few more warships in 1904? In the case of equal strength, the odds of victory between the Japanese fleet and the Russian fleet were half to half, and Russia could afford the defeat of the fleet. But Japan absolutely cannot afford it.

From a strategic point of view, at the beginning of the game, the Russian fleet was divided into three parts, the Japanese fleet was concentrated together, and had the strategic initiative, if the second way of play was chosen, the Russian fleet was strengthened to the extent that it was equal to the Japanese fleet, then the two sides were tied. Japan has lost its strategic superiority invisibly, and defeating the battle of Arthur cannot smooth out the loss of the initiative, because the key to the navy lies in the fleet's actions at sea. The loss of a base is not too fatal.

If we consider the army, the cost of doing so will be even greater, and although Russia is fighting thousands of miles away, Japan is obviously still inferior to Russia in terms of resilience, and they do not want to drag the war on too long. If the Russian fleet had always existed, then Russia would have a chance of victory, and Nicholas II would have fought firmly.

In fact, on the other plane, even if Russia failed in the Battle of Mukden, after being pushed to the Tieling line, the main force of the Russian troops was still there, and there was a steady stream of troops transferred from Europe, although Russia fell into the political crisis and national contradictions after the defeat, but the foundation was still there, which is also the reason why Count Witte was tough enough in the face of the Japanese! Money won't lose a penny, if you don't agree, then keep fighting!

If the war drags on any longer, Japan, which is weak in blood and blood, will probably have to switch from offensive to defensive, and then consume a lot of money and manpower in the trench confrontation. This is definitely not the result that Japan wants to see, so he must cleanly defeat all Russian hopes of a comeback in the shortest possible time!

After some deliberation, Ruprecht **** began to write a reply to the Kaiser: "After next June, Japan will complete its final preparations for war, they may start war at any time, the army will enter Korea in large numbers, and will hoard a large amount of ammunition and supplies, in which case the Russians will soon smell the coming war." So there is the Baltic Fleet, led by Vice Admiral Makanov, which will immediately go to the Far East. ”

"And this voyage is destined to have some warships that will not reach their destination, and they will be greeted not by friendly forces, but by the merciless artillery of the Japanese fleet! When Japan will start the war against Russia depends entirely on when the Russian fleet will come to the Far East. The first shot of the Russo-Japanese War will be fired at sea, possibly in the South China Sea, possibly in the Taiwan Strait, or in the East China Sea! ”

"Does the Russian fleet have a chance to avoid this catastrophe?" The Kaiser's reply to the prince was very simple.

"It's hard, unless the Russians choose to go through the Atlantic, then go around South America into the Pacific Ocean, and then go down the Pacific Ocean into Vladivostok. And this is only a possibility, even if the Japanese cannot find the traces of the Russian fleet by scouting in the Pacific, they can still wait for the arrival of the Russian fleet outside the port of Vladivostok, and the end result is nothing more than to make the whole process a little more troublesome. The Japanese fleet could face a flanking attack, but the Russians still had little chance of winning. The prince's reply was also simple.

"Let's give Nicky (William II's name to Nicholas II.) Pray, may his poor fleet escape defeat under the guidance of God's glory. Looking at Wilhelm II's reply, the prince could hardly imagine what Wilhelm II's mood was when he said this, was he gloating, or did he really hope that the Russian fleet would successfully converge? Maybe it's both, right? Anyway, there is no conflict, Wilhelm II hopes that this war will last as long as possible!

"May God bless General Makanov." His Royal Highness also had a funny spirit to send a message to Wilhelm II. "If we could, we could actually remind the Russians and the Americans, do you think it's necessary?"

"Do what you think is right without worrying about other consequences or interference." Wilhelm II's reply was very simple.

"Let Count Schelling arrange for him to tell Lieutenant General Essen that I can meet him at any time." The prince said, closing the document in his hand. "Makanov, I've tried my best to help you find a glimmer of life, although your fleet may still suffer heavy losses, but at least you can run away, don't live up to my expectations and efforts." His Highness was touched by his ...... internationalist spirit.

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