Chapter 553: Planning for the Future (3)
Wu Guangliang's suggestion was affirmed and supported by Wei Minsheng.
However, for the Chinese people who have not experienced that demographic crisis, they always feel that Wu Guangliang's words are a bit alarmist and incredible.
In view of this situation, Wei Minsheng drew a map of the population age structure of Huaxia in the next 20 years in the form of a line chart based on the optimal population age structure model proposed by Wu Guangliang and the population target of Huaxia in the next 20 years.
Wei Minsheng pointed to this structural diagram and said: "I will not repeat what kind of benefits such a form of population age structure has.
Before the pace of China's development has not stopped, there are two ways for our population growth to come from.
The first is the increase in the number of newborns through childbirth, who are the future of the Chinese country.
The second is increased by absorbing the surrounding people, who are the present of the Huaxia Kingdom.
In order to avoid large fluctuations in social demand, we must do our best to adjust the demographic structure of our country into such a form, which is the basis for the formation of a stable society.
Since our total population has not yet reached the upper limit, we still have a lot of room for adjustment.
Until the population and territory of Huaxia reach stability, I suggest that the age group with the highest population structure in Huaxia be used as the standard, and the population of other age groups will gradually move closer to this highest value.
For example, the largest number of people in our current age group is 23 years old, and according to statistics, the number of people in this age group has reached nearly 50,000.
Although the current average age of our country in Huaxia has not exceeded 50 years old, due to the improvement of medical standards, our average age will inevitably increase year by year.
Most of the registered people who have died in Huaxia in recent years have been because they have overdrawn their lives in the past years.
Living on the brink of life and death for decades, struggling to survive, he became ill and caused permanent damage to some organs.
Even the best doctors in our Huaxia Kingdom at present are powerless in the face of such a situation, so they can only try to make them walk more peacefully and less painfully.
Judging from the statistical situation, in fact, the current death curve of our Huaxia Kingdom starts at the age of forty-six, and the oldest is seventy-six years old.
This situation may continue for at least another 30 years, because the living conditions of the surrounding people in the past were limited, and we have no way to change their vitality in the past.
In the 46 years before the death curve, the lowest number of people was in the age group of five, with less than 10,000 births, except for this year, when there were still a large number of unborn people who were not registered.
The number of people in other age groups is at least between 10,000 and 20,000, and the highest fluctuations between different age groups have even reached five or six times, far exceeding the controllable fluctuation range of 10 percent.
Therefore, on the surface, our Huaxia country seems to have a very rapid development momentum, but in fact, there has been a serious imbalance in the age structure, which may have a great impact on the demand fluctuations of the whole society in a certain period in the future.
In order to compensate for this imbalance, I think it is necessary to properly control the entry threshold for the 23-year-old population. ”
Li Yan thought for a while and said: "This kind of population structure is indeed not very stable, but the population of the age group of twenty-three is a very young and energetic age group, and it is also the group that has contributed the most to our Huaxia country at present.
If we restrict the participation of this age group, I don't think it is appropriate for the rapid development of Huaxia. ”
Wu Guangliang said: "We are not completely restricting the participation of this age group, but raising the entry threshold for this group.
For example, under normal circumstances, if you want to become a full member of Huaxia Kingdom, you only need to pass the basic assessment of Huaxia Kingdom.
However, due to the fact that the population in the age group of 23 is already too large, it may seriously affect social stability at some point in the future.
Therefore, we can raise the criteria for the basic assessment of the population in this age group, such as the number of literate words must reach 1,000 words, master the basic four mixed operations, or have unique achievements in a specific field.
In this way, we did not close the door to becoming a full member of the Huaxia Kingdom, but only used rules to force them to learn more knowledge and master more skills.
It should be clear to everyone that the labor force with different levels of education represents different production efficiency in the specific environment of Huaxia.
A workforce with advanced knowledge and skills can even be equivalent to five to ten ordinary laborers.
If the new population in this age group has such a quality, although the number of people who join is not large, due to the improvement of the quality of the population, it can produce several times the production efficiency.
In such a situation, raising the entry threshold will not have an impact on the development of Huaxia, but will increase some outstanding talents.
Moreover, as the number of people in other age groups continues to increase, when the range of population fluctuations in each age group is narrowed to a certain range, or when the population of a certain age group has exceeded this age group, we can relax the restrictions or change the age group that needs to be controlled. ”
Wei Minsheng compared the current line chart of Huaxia's population age structure with the plan for the next 20 years, and said: "In addition to using the growth rate to control the population growth rate of a specific age group, I think it can also be controlled according to the proportion of growth space.
If we set the total population at 50 million for the next 20 years, assuming that by that time the start of the death curve is pushed back to 55 years old due to the improvement of medical technology, then our upper limit for each age group is about 750,000.
We can subtract the number of people of all ages from 750,000 and divide it by twenty to get the maximum average increase per year.
For example, if you take the 23-year-old, who has the largest population in this age group, 750,000 minus 50,000, and divide it by 20, the annual population growth space is about 35,000.
In other words, if our population plan starts to be implemented next year, then the population in the 24-year-old age group does not increase by 35,000 people in the year, and the entry threshold can be raised.
As long as the age structure of our country has not reached the optimal state, and the net increase in the population of any age group exceeds this average annual growth number, it is necessary to intervene in policies to raise the entry threshold of the population of that age group to control its growth rate and reduce fluctuations. 2k reading network