Ten days later, Tan Renhao handed over a report on possible exercises against Japan's four main fleets to Colonel Ji Xiaobin. At the same time, he received two messages, one good and one bad. The good news is that the visiting fleet will be Japan's Southwest Fleet, which also includes the aircraft carrier Akagi, which has just completed its third phase of refit. The bad thing is that it will not be the Fifth Fleet that will conduct friendly exercises with the Japanese Southwestern Fleet, but the 1st Fleet, which will arrive soon.

"This time it was Marshal Satieting who personally made the decision, and General Pei Yuming personally led the First Fleet to conduct a friendly exercise with the Japanese Southwest Combined Fleet." Ji Xiaobin handed a copy of the internal staff to Tan Renhao, "This is the order we just received, and in five days, the First Fleet will arrive." I know how you feel, General Liao Hanxiang also went to the Zhoushan Naval Headquarters yesterday, but this time we will definitely not be on the stage. ”

Tan Renhao seemed very calm, but his heart was not a taste. The First Fleet is the oldest and most powerful fleet of the Empire, and for hundreds of years, it has been the vanguard of the Imperial Navy and the main force in defending the Imperial Seas. It can be said that the current Imperial Navy was developed from the First Fleet, and without the First Fleet, there would be no Imperial Navy. However, Tan Renhao felt that someone had robbed him of something, Naha was the home port of the Fifth Fleet, and the First Fleet came from afar and took away the role of the Fifth Fleet. Given the position of the First Fleet in the Imperial Navy, even if Admiral Liao Hanxiang found the theory of Marshal Satieting, which he would probably do with his temper, it probably wouldn't have come to fruition.

"There's no way around it. Half a year ago, the First Fleet suffered a great humiliation, Marshal Satietin was even openly ridiculed, and even the Prime Minister summoned Marshal Saditin alone after the exercise. Arranging for the First Fleet to conduct confrontation exercises with Japan's Southwestern Combined Fleet was a decision made by Marshal Sajetin himself. Ji Xiaobin sighed, "However, General Liao Hanxiang arranged a new task before leaving, and now, I hope that you will complete this task." ”

Tan Renhao nodded, forcing himself to calm down.

Ji Xiaobin put a folder in front of Tan Renhao. "Let's take a closer look when I go back, give me an answer as soon as possible, and if I need more manpower, I will try to arrange it."

"Yes!" Tan Renhao immediately stood up, Ji Xiaobin had already sent a signal to see off the guest, "Colonel, if there is nothing else, then I will leave first!" ”

After finding Hao Dongjue and Chang Jianxin, Tan Renhao first told the two of them about the new arrangement.

"How can this be, the First Fleet is too domineering!" Hao Dongjue still has that temper, "Isn't this fishing from ********?" It's just too much of a deception, isn't Commander Liao doing nothing? ”

Chang Jianxin just smiled bitterly, he came out of the First Fleet, and he had a deep understanding of the domineering of the First Fleet.

"General Liao Hanxiang has gone to Zhoushan, but we can't get our hopes up!" Tan Renhao was very annoyed, this time he lit a cigarette without hesitation, and then put the folder in front of the two of them, "This is a new task given to us by the colonel, to make a general assessment of the results of the confrontational exercises between the First Fleet and the Japanese Southwest Combined Fleet, and to conduct two simulation exercises, one is the confrontation exercise between the Fifth Fleet and the First Fleet, and the other is the confrontation exercise between the Fifth Fleet and the Japanese Southwest Fleet. ”

Hao Dongjue and Chang Jianxin immediately surrounded him, and at the same time looked at Tan Renhao in disbelief. Simulated confrontation exercises are called "wargames", which use a variety of data to replace the actual drill actions, and finally deduce the results of the exercise. Under normal circumstances, this kind of large-scale simulation exercise requires dozens of staff officers to complete, so as to ensure the correctness of various data and the results of the deduction as close to the actual situation as possible.

"Colonel Ji Xiaobin only wants a rough assessment result, of course, if necessary, we can apply for more manpower assistance, but I think that if we only need to make a final judgment on the winner, the three of us will be enough." Tan Renhao divided the document between the two, "This is the first time we have done wargame deduction, so we need to familiarize ourselves with the relevant knowledge first, and then we will start to do the actual deduction, is there a problem?" ”

"How much time will it take us?" Chang Jianxin frowned slightly, even if it is just a deduction on paper, what is needed is only the simplest prediction result, which also requires a lot of work, and time is the most important.

The colonel did not give a specific explanation, but the First Fleet will arrive in five days, and Admiral Liao Hanxiang will probably return to the fleet in these days. Therefore, it is better for us to act quickly and hand over the results of the pre-deduction of the First Fleet and the Japanese Southwest Combined Fleet to Admiral Liao Hanxiang. Tan Renhao spoke quickly, as if he was rushing for time, "Perhaps, General Liao Hanxiang is waiting for our report!" ”

Hao Dongjue and Chang Jianxin both nodded, since this was the task left by General Liao Hanxiang before going to the Navy Headquarters, it must be very important.

Over the next three days, the three of them used the information they had gathered to conduct more than 10 repeated rehearsals about the confrontational exercises between the First Fleet and Japan's Southwest Combined Fleet. The three of them were not surprised by the results, but Tan Renhao was not in a hurry to submit the report. He spent two days repeatedly deliberating whether the results of each step of the deduction would be biased, and how large the specific deviation was, and then made a summary of the deviation of all steps, that is, the reliability rate, and then obtained a deviation range, that is, the probability range of the final result of the deduction and the actual situation.

It's a lot of work. Although Tan Renhao's math scores, especially calculus, were the best in the school when he was studying at the Naval Academy, this kind of large-scale operation still gave him a headache and felt that he had learned too little knowledge. It took him two days to verify all the steps of the deduction one by one, and recorded the detailed process of the deduction in the form of a report, and finally completed an overall probability report.

This report is by no means superfluous. How credible the results of any wargame deduction report are, and how much reference value can be provided to superiors, such a report on the overall compliance rate is extremely important. The possible coincidence rate with the actual situation will become the most important reference information for superior leaders.