Chapter 115: China, the United States, and Russia (Part II)

PS: Seven more!!

China's attitude toward Somalia has made Russia see a strategic shift and expand China's strategic living space. At the same time, Russia is well aware that the value of Somalia's existence is not only in the energy sector and its influence in the northeast corner of Africa.

It can touch the nerves of the United States, bordering the Gulf of Aden, close to Saudi Arabia, close to the Middle East, and curbing the Suez Canal. The value of these existences is worth paying for a country that has a great strategic need.

Although, China did not send a note to Russia in this regard, and the leaders of the two countries did not speak secretly. However, according to the tacit understanding of cooperation in international affairs over the years, Putin also asked the Ministry of Defense to express Russia's views on this matter.

The seemingly peaceful words actually show Russia's attitude on this matter, and in addition, over the years, Russia's economy and military industry have made great recovery and progress, and Putin is deeply trusted by the Russians with a tough attitude. The United States can ignore China's statement, but it cannot ignore the attitude of the two countries standing together.

And for Russia, Russia drags an India with its left hand and a China with its right. Almost the two largest developing countries are cooperating with Russia. And the economic engagement between the United States and Europe and Russia is not as close as China's. After Putin came to power, he vigorously developed the country's economy. And the blow to the extreme inflatability of individual privatization. The financial oligarchs, the financial predators, have been hit. And in the national economy, Russia trades oil and arms with China. have gone a lot of progress. However, for Russia, China still holds an annual trade surplus of about $30 billion to $40 billion, while for India, India is a huge "money-making" market for Russia.

Africa is the most important financial and emerging human resource region for two countries and even Shijie countries. The same is true for the United States. If you want to compete with the United States, currency is the most important thing.

The history of the rise and fall of Shijie currency condenses the experience and lessons of the financial rise and fall of such a large country: economic growth needs a strong currency to guarantee. Economic volatility requires strong money to stabilize, and recessions need strong money to contain it. The rise of a strong currency is often accompanied by the brutal suppression of a hegemonic currency, and the more oppressive it is, the greater the strength of its rise and the corresponding scale of expansion.

Since World War II, the Shijie currency pattern has been dominated by the US dollar, and before that, the US dollar was able to defeat the British pound to become the Shijie currency, not only because of opportunity and strength, but also because of the flexible and reliable strategic management system adopted by the United States in different periods such as the Bretton Woods system and the Jamaican system.

Although the United States is currently facing serious debt problems and repeated crises, it does not mean that this shijie currency can be replaced. In fact, the core competitiveness of the US dollar has never been shaken in essence, and it is still the main means of international payment in international settlements and international payments, and most commodities, especially bulk products such as oil, grain, and heavy metals, are still denominated in US dollars, and the proportion of US dollars in international reserves has also reached more than 60%. (The modern wars launched by the United States are all aimed at the dollar!) In the future, if we talk about the means of US global strategy, I will talk about it. )

For the euro can only be united, not replaced. First of all, the birth and rise of the euro took Europe 50 years to achieve, as an important event in the twentieth century that shaped the Shijie map. Imbued with the efforts of many EU politicians and thinkers, the European people have enjoyed enormous political and economic benefits since the establishment of the eurozone, although economic integration is currently hampered by the European debt crisis, and the eurozone does not have a basis for a giant sovereign bond market with a high degree of internationalization like US Treasuries. It is impossible to replace the dollar, but the establishment of the euro has made the international monetary system stable and resilient, and the eurozone may shrink in an orderly manner in the future. But it will not suffer the most fundamental challenge of disintegration, and it will eventually become a strong currency.

Secondly. The vast majority of the BRICS banking systems have become a chain in the global arbitrage trading system, and a collapse of the euro will trigger a huge amount of arbitrage trading capital to unwind and return home. It will have a serious impact on the monetary system of the BRICS countries.

If China can stabilize the euro, it is equivalent to controlling the rise of the US dollar, and indirectly stabilizing the price of China's financial assets, which can not only reduce the probability of financial instability, but also reduce the severity of future financial turmoil and resist the destructiveness of asset bubbles.

The combined GDP of Europe and the United States accounts for 40% of shijie, and there is no doubt that the euro and the dollar are the two poles of the future multipolar shijie monetary system. Others, such as the yen, after a lost decade, are no longer able to gain significant pricing power in international trade, and have to defend the city. Shadow currencies such as the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc have a small economic aggregate, poor military strength, and strong political dependence. Despite its ambitions and strong military strength, the Russian ruble has serious problems with its integrity mechanism, and none of these currencies can handle the role of a regionalized currency.

At present, the road of economic integration between China and Europe and the United States has come to an end, and Chinese financial institutions are also facing a severe strategic choice in the future of international business expansion.

Therefore, the primary goal of the internationalization of China's financial industry and the internationalization of the renminbi should be to become an international currency in the Asian and African regions. First of all, the region is positioned to complement each other in the traditional economic structure, with the rapid development of modern trade and investment, and the large demand for RMB, and the urgent need to establish a stable international or regional payment and settlement system that will help China's economy integrate with these emerging economies.

Of course, the birth of the new pattern of the renminbi requires a strong liliang to resist hegemony and establish a shijie system suitable for its own development.

Otherwise, once the European debt crisis subsides and the dollar reverses, the renminbi or Hong Kong dollar will soon become the next target of speculative capital attacks. The rise of hegemony in regional conservatism, decline in shijie expansion, the dollar as the international benchmark currency is the only bottom-line bargaining chip for the United States to bear the current high debt, whoever shakes the status of the dollar, is to rob the hegemon's debt resources, will be targeted attacks and wars, in this regard the United States has never done anything to do so.

Since the Lehman Brothers crisis and the financial tsunami, the international role of the US dollar and the local economic development of the United States have long been separated, the US dollar will continue to repeat the great crisis and recession, objectively China's exchange rate mechanism pegged to the US dollar has lost its advantage, and may become the fuse of disaster at any time, the key to solving this problem is to quickly change from a passive defender to an offensive side, use a regionalized international currency model, accelerate the internationalization of the RMB, and promote the reconstruction of the international monetary system, rather than waiting for the completion of the US dollar's sheep shearing strategy. That will face an even more serious crisis and internal and external difficulties.

In China's high-level understanding, Africa should become one of the bases of the RMB internationalization center, and the structure and development of the African RMB market is the key to the success or failure of RMB internationalization.

The reason is that Africa is a new growth point for the future of Shijie's economy, which has become the basic consensus of international capital, Africa is a huge resource center, and its infrastructure is basically still in a primitive state, the demand is very huge, and it is the region with the most potential for RMB demand.

Over the past 60 years, China's total foreign aid has reached US$39.26 billion, of which aid to Africa accounts for more than half, and China-Africa trade volume reached US$226.9 billion in 2012, making it Africa's largest trading partner. The resources and markets of China and Africa are very complementary, Africa's superior resources are scarce in China, and China's products and products have comparative advantages in Africa, which are very suitable for Africa's local needs, which is a solid foundation for China-Africa cooperation.

The biggest risk in the African market is social rather than political, and unemployment and wealth disparity in the regions where investment projects are located are of the greatest concern.

The major powers are vying for Africa, and the geopolitical struggle is fierce. Africa is the only remaining market, resource, and political virgin land on Shijie, and it is a veritable strategic location.

Africa, for example, is one of the three fulcrums of the U.S. global strategy, as evidenced by the Africa Strategic Command. The war in Libya has opened a strategic breakthrough for the United States to return to the African continent, and the dispatch of characteristic troops directly into Uganda to fight extremist groups, the deployment of special forces and unmanned fighter jets along the golden waterway of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, from Somalia to Kenya and Ethiopia, and the strategic passage extending to Sudan, Chad and other oil-producing countries in the Central African region, all demonstrate the ambition of the United States.

Now, a great opportunity is in front of China, can China not seize it? Russia's intervention is also intended to unite with China and enjoy Africa's great interests in the future. Of course, the twists and turns of interests here require closer talks between the senior leaders of both sides.

In Russia's eyes, China has taken the lead in this matter, and in order to cooperate more deeply with China in Africa, Putin has directly cooperated with China. If China is willing to unite with Russia, the two countries will inevitably have many means to work together in East Africa in the future.

In fact, there is no if, Africa is an emerging market, shijie countries are staring, in order to counter the United States, the probability of Sino-Russian cooperation is very high. Moreover, China also needs another powerful helper to break the US strategy and strive for its own strategic space.

This method can not only divert the attention of the United States, but also make the United States' strategic eastward shift appear to be incompatible. Imagine how much of an impact it would have on the United States if there was a pro-Chinese and pro-Russian government in Somalia. (To be continued......)