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Shi Bufan quickly returned home with Dugu Daxue, and they reached a tacit agreement with Li Shimin, and then Li Shimin helped Dugu Daxue's younger brother to take up the position of a thousand cows, and then went to fight for Dugu Kaiyuan's help. And in this way, Li Shimin's Xuanwumen change will have a great probability of success, which makes Li Shimin very happy. Even Li Shimin's staff members were very happy, because with this condition, the probability of their success would be much greater.

However, when Shi Bufan returned home, he kept thinking in his heart, as if there were still some problems here.

"Why are you still like this? Is there any problem here? Dugu Daxue asked.

Shi Bufan still said: "I always feel that we have overlooked an important place, in this battle for succession, it seems that the participants are far more than the crown prince and the king of Qin, I always feel that something is wrong." I feel like we've all overlooked an issue, a very important one. ”

"What a problem!" Dugu Daxue asked.

Shi Bufan said: "Go and help me get a bunch of papers, I'm going to try modeling!" ”

"Modeling?" Dugu Daxue obviously didn't understand the meaning of the word.

Shi Bufan began to write and draw on the paper, and then he drew out the relationship network between Li Jiancheng and Li Shimin, and then went through a series of statistics and analysis. Shi Bufan used the game theory he learned in economics to carry out a modeling, using a certain amount of mathematical knowledge and game theory. This modeling is actually a scientific inference method in later generations, and there are many aspects of this modeling application, which can be used in science and engineering, and even many liberal arts can also be used, and modeling is one of the necessary knowledge in theoretical economics. Although modeling requires mathematical knowledge, the requirements for mathematics are not as high as those of science and engineering. Even a lot of political stuff has to be deduced through modeling, and then the theoretical data is determined.

However, if it's a big model, it has to be done by a team. At present, he is the only one, and the pressure of this modeling is definitely not small. Shi Bufan tried to use the knowledge of game theory to deduce, and then he followed the principle of the one who benefited the most politically, and then he found that he couldn't deduce it anymore.

"No, no, there's a problem here! Seems like this is too much of a coincidence, right? No, there is a problem here, and we are ignoring an important issue on either side. Shi Bufan thought.

Dugu Daxue hurriedly asked, "What is the problem?" ”

"We are just trying to position the participants in this battle for the succession as the crown prince and the king of Qin, but in this battle for the succession, are the participants really only the prince and the king of Qin? I'd like to find another participant, and the other participant was actually involved in this succession, but his role seems to be something special. Shi Bufan said.

Dugu Daxue hurriedly asked, "Who?" Who else is involved in this succession? Is there anyone else here who wants to reap the benefits of a fisherman? ”

"It's the emperor!" Shi Bufan replied.

"Your Majesty? Impossible! Only the prince participates in the succession, where is the monarch involved in the succession? Dugu Daxue said in surprise.

However, Shi Bufan built the model on the drawings, and then asked Dugu Daxue: "Can you understand this model?" ”

"I don't understand, what's the use of this?" Dugu Daxue asked.

"Forget it, you can't read it. But I saw a lot of things on these drawings that seemed to be inexplicable. Shi Bufan replied.

Dugu Daxue asked, "What's the matter?" ”

"Daxue, what do you say is the difference between King Qin and Yang Guang back then?" Shi Bufan asked.

Dugu Daxue shook his head immediately after thinking about it, and then obviously didn't quite understand what Shi Bufan meant.

"Daxue, don't you think King Qin is very similar to Yang Guang back then? Yang Guang at that time, when he was young, led the troops to the southern expedition, and he was the nominal commander of the southern expedition to Southern Chen. And he originally had no power, but after the Southern Expedition, he served as the governor of Yangzhou, and successfully used the scholars of Nanchen to accumulate a group of power. And the King of Qin is not like this, he used the time of the conquest of Shandong and Hebei to accumulate the team, and then he has the capital to fight for the heir now. But now I analyze the emperor's mentality, if we want to help King Qin win the throne, then we must analyze what the emperor's mentality is! Shi Bufan explained.

Dugu Daxue frowned, and then obviously didn't quite understand Shi Bufan's words, and Shi Bufan looked at the modeling drawing, and then he obviously saw that there seemed to be something wrong with this drawing. Obviously, there seems to be a force secretly influencing these things, and perhaps Li Shimin, the king of Qin, and the crown prince are not fully aware of it. At that time, Shi Bufan had not been specifically analyzed in later generations, but now after a series of modeling, he obviously found that there were several key points in the known changes of the Xuanwu Gate, which did not conform to common sense.

And these key points do not make sense and may be explained by coincidence. But if there is only one point that is problematic, it may still be called a coincidence. But there are several strange things happening, so is this still a complete coincidence?

"There are accidents in history, but there are too many accidents, right?" Shi Bufan muttered quietly.

Dugu Daxue immediately asked: "What historical accident?" ”

"Daxue, you are also an experienced person in the court, so what do you think of a strong founding king's attitude towards the crown prince?" Shi Bufan asked.

Dugu Daxue thought for a while and said, "If it is a strong monarch, then the attitude towards the crown prince is very complicated. Because they themselves are very good, they also want their heirs to be good. However, they are also afraid that the heir will be too good, and this kind of thinking is very complicated. ”

"Yes, I think so. Because the monarch and the crown prince, whether it is a father-son relationship, but also a monarch-minister relationship. Once it comes to the power struggle, the father and son often have to turn their faces. The crown prince of a strong king is not easy to be, it seems that many princes of male lords are not good at death! Shi Bufan said.

Shi Bufan carefully analyzed the crown princes of those excellent kings in previous dynasties, and he found that the princes of these excellent kings often did not die well. During the Han Dynasty, Liu Rong, the crown prince of Emperor Liu Qi of the Han Dynasty, was unlucky in the end, and Emperor Jing of the Han Dynasty was an important founder of the rule of Wenjing, so it is not impossible to say that he was a British lord, and as a result, the crown prince Liu Rong was deposed, and there was the later Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty Liu Che. The later crown prince of Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty, Liu Ju, also failed to get a good death. Not to mention the far, even the close Yang Yong, the crown prince of Emperor Wen of Sui, did not die well. Li Yuan's crown prince Li Jiancheng did not have a good death, and Li Shimin's crown prince Li Chengqian did not have a good death. Later, Zhu Yuanzhang of the Ming Dynasty died early when Zhu Biao, the crown prince, but his son Emperor Jianwen was not able to die well, and the crown prince of Emperor Kangxi of the Qing Dynasty did not die well.

After the analysis of so much data, it can be found that the first crown prince of those excellent kings often cannot die well. This actually originated from the relationship between the father and son of the emperor and the prince in ancient times, and the emperor and the prince were not only father and son, but also monarchs and ministers. As a father, he hopes that his son can be excellent, but he doesn't want him to be too good. Because he is an excellent person and his vision is very high, he naturally hopes that his sons can also be excellent. But if he is too good, then his side as a king will have worries, worrying that the power of his courtiers will exceed his own.

Therefore, an excellent king is often in a state of suppression for the crown prince, and will not easily let him hold important power.

"I suspect that the emperor actually deliberately indulged King Qin to become big!" Shi Bufan said suddenly.

"What? The emperor intends to indulge King Qin to become bigger? Dugu Daxue was quite surprised, she didn't expect that Shi Bufan would come up with such an analysis and dismissal.

Shi Bufan said with certainty: "That's right, as a king, the first thing they have to consider is balance, the balance between strengths. And if there is only one crown prince, the prince may have nothing to fear, and the important ministers of the court will also think that he is the only heir, which can easily threaten the emperor's power. So at this time, the emperor may support another person to balance it. This deliberately instigates them to compete, and then he can act as a referee, and then maintain his position through this method. ”

Dugu Daxue thought about it, and obviously nodded in agreement with Shi Bufan's statement. Because as a monarch, he naturally wants the strength of his courtiers to be balanced, otherwise once it is out of balance, it will threaten his position. However, at present, it is not impossible for Li Yuan to let Li Shimin become bigger, especially threatening the crown prince Li Jiancheng.

"But in fact, Li Jiancheng has no descendants, if you carefully analyze the people around the prince, in fact, many of him were sent by the emperor to serve in the East Palace. In fact, the prince's East Palace bureaucrats communicated very frequently with the imperial court, and the East Palace was just a transfer official, not all the time. The emperor would not allow the crown prince to accumulate his own power and then threaten his position. So the crown prince doesn't actually have many descendants at present. ”

"But let's imagine what the emperor thinks. What is his thinking, the crown prince and the king of Qin are fighting, so there is not much threat to him, but they have to rely on him, as the father of the emperor, to adjudicate when they fight! ”

Dugu Daxue shook his head and said, "Impossible, right?" The emperor is not afraid of chaos in the court? He is not afraid that Datang will be divided because of this? ”

"No, the former Sui Yang Guang and Yang Yong fought, did they split? No! The essence of the coup d'état is nothing more than an abnormal transfer of power within the ruling class. In fact, no matter how much they fight, where can they mess up? They had no military power in their hands, and the number of troops that the prince could use was less than 2,000. The number of troops that King Qin could use was only less than 800 people. But if you look at the number of troops around Chang'an who take turns to guard Chang'an, there are no less than 80,000 troops, and the soldiers of the prince and the king of Qin are not even enough to plug their teeth. So where can they mess around, the fact that there is no threat at all. ”

However, Shi Bufan then said: "Let me say something heart-wrenching, in fact, anyway, whether the crown prince wins or the king of Qin wins, in fact, the emperor is the winner!" ”

"This ......" Dugu Daxue didn't know what Shi Bufan was talking about, obviously this was too surprising, whether Li Jiancheng won or Li Shimin won, then Li Yuan was the winner?

Shi Bufan pointed to this Li Yuan's relationship network, and then said: "As the founding lord of the country, the emperor's mentality is different from that of the crown prince King Qin. As a British lord, his thinking is that he is the founder of the country, and he will not be a threat. He doesn't have to compete with his brothers, and his place is reserved for his descendants anyway. Whether it is the traditional inheritance of the eldest son, or the inheritance of other princes in the non-tradition, this is actually his son. As long as it is his son, that is, his descendants, what is he to worry about? ”

"But as the crown prince and the king of Qin, their thinking is different. They can only have to compete, they have to compete for their own lives and for the survival of their descendants. So being in a different position, naturally thinking is different. In different situations, they think differently. The emperor is currently the founding lord of the country, so he naturally sits firmly in Diaoyutai, no matter whether the crown prince or the king of Qin wins, it is also his son, what does he have to worry about? Anyway, the meat is rotten in the pot, what does he have to worry about? He doesn't care whether he is the eldest son, the second son, or even other sons. ”

"The crown prince and the king of Qin, the conflict between them is actually controllable. They have no military power, and without military power, they naturally cannot make the Tang Dynasty chaotic. As long as they can't mess up, whether the crown prince kills the king of Qin, or the king of Qin kills the prince, the last person who is alive is the new king of the Tang Dynasty! ”

Dugu Daxue immediately asked, "What about the emperor?" What should the emperor do? Won't he come out to stop it? Isn't he afraid of chaos? ”

"Your Majesty, at that time, I'm afraid he was thinking about the flood after my death, and let them go. Anyway, as long as the throne is in the hands of his descendants, then what else does he have to worry about? Shi Bufan replied.

Dugu Daxue was also shocked for a while, if Li Yuan really thought so, then maybe it was really possible! Because no matter what the outcome of the battle is, Li Yuan is actually the "winner", and he is the enemy who sits firmly in Diaoyutai!

"So, I suspect that all this is the emperor's last real operator in the queen mother, the crown prince and the king of Qin, are just two pawns he uses to fight. Hmph, this is like a casino, the emperor sits in the bank, and then let the two gamblers gamble here, and then whether they win or lose, the dealer can profit from it. Of course, as a banker, he may not mind playing two in person. Therefore, I suspect that this emperor is the real operator in the end. Shi Bufan explained.

[It's about to be 515, I hope to continue to hit the 515 red envelope list, and the red envelope rain will be able to give back to readers and promotional works on May 15. A piece is also love, and it must be better! 】