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As a person who studies economics, Shi Bufan is not the kind of person who is very careless. When he analyzes economic data, he is very rigorous and meticulous, and he will never let go of a suspicious situation and data easily. Because often these economic data represent a lot of things, if you miss a piece of data, the final result is often very different. According to the current record of the so-called Xuanwumen Mutiny, there are obviously some problems, and there are some points that are difficult to explain clearly. Therefore, Shi Bufan thinks that there is probably a third force behind this, and this third force Shi Bufan thinks that it is very likely that it is Li Yuan, the emperor, especially those doubts before the Xuanwumen coup, if the third force is Li Yuan, then this can also explain the problem of these doubts very well.

"Daxue, do you think the emperor will have some other investigation and intelligence organizations in addition to the news transmission of your palace. Well, that is, the group of people who secretly helped the emperor find out the news? This kind of person is not open to the public, but you are in the palace, do you feel something? Shi Bufan asked.

Dugu Daxue replied: "I don't dare to ask more about this kind of thing, and I don't know very well." But I dare guess that most of these people exist! ”

Shi Bufan also thinks that there should be this kind of private intelligence organization responsible for helping the emperor, maybe this is also the dirty side of politics, as a leader, he often has to ensure his greatness, brightness and justice, but there must be someone behind him to help him do the dirty work. For example, assassination, as well as finding out some information, and doing some unsightly things. Almost every leader has this kind of similar person around him, but the nature of the name and the size of the organization vary according to the leader's strength and identity or some reasons, but there will be such a person in the end.

Shi Bufan didn't think that Li Yuan would have this kind of person by his side, this is Li Yuan's eyes and ears, representing his eyes and ears. If there were no them, I am afraid that in the end, Li Yuan would be deaf and blind, unable to move.

"Even if Dugu Heavy Snow blocks the news exchange between Xuanwu Gate and the palace, then Li Yuan only has such a news channel? It is certain that in the palace, it is unlikely that there is only this set of news communication channels mastered by Dugu Daxue, if there is only such a channel, then Li Yuan will not know how to die. Li Yuan must have his own private investigation organization, and this investigation organization must have its own power in the palace. If Li Yuan didn't even deploy any investigation organization in his own court, then I'm afraid he, the emperor, would be too much of a bucket, right? Li Yuan is not a rice bucket, which means that he must have deployed people from the investigation organization in the palace, so if something happens to the Xuanwu Gate, even if Dugu Heavy Snow blocks this passage, will Li Yuan not know to go through another set of passages? ”

"Also, Li Yuan heard the news of the coup d'état in this Xuanwu Gate, and he could run away. The Xuanwu Gate is just a gate, he can completely walk away from the three gates of the Green Dragon and White Tiger Vermilion Bird, once he leaves the palace, he can transfer troops at any time. It is very difficult for Li Shimin to stop it, and there is enough time to act as a contingency. So Li Shimin launched a mutiny, then Li Yuan had enough time to retreat, so why didn't Li Yuan retreat? ”

"There are still many questions, Li Shimin deployed the army in the Xuanwu Gate in the second half of the night, so how was the Xuanwu Gate opened? According to the date of the mutiny, it was the fourth day of the sixth month, and this day was not the time of the so-called Shuowang pilgrimage, and the civil and military officials did not need too many people to conduct the early pilgrimage. That means that the gate of the palace will not be opened so early, especially the north gate Xuanwu Gate is the back door of the royal private family, and it is impossible to open the door so early. How was Li Shimin able to send the army in so easily? ”

According to historical records, Li Shimin persuaded Chang He, the guard of Xuanwu Gate, to let his soldiers enter, but Chang He is just a gatekeeper, and the gatekeeper may not have a key! According to the current rules of the Tang Dynasty, the Shang Palace Bureau was responsible for each gate of the palace, so the military attache responsible for guarding each gate did not actually have the key to the palace gate. ”

In fact, the gatekeeper does not have a key, and the one who has a key does not guard the door, which is actually the management experience of many important places. Just like many places where important items are stored in later generations, those who have the key are not responsible for guarding the door, but those who are responsible for guarding the door often do not have the key. Sometimes there are multiple locks on the same door, and multiple people need to open the door together. This management method makes it safer, and the palace management of the Tang Dynasty also illustrates this, the Shang Palace Bureau is responsible for managing the key, and even the Xuanwu Gate guard Chang He can't open the door without the key.

As for opening the door early, this is unlikely. You must know that the Tang Dynasty will only carry out the early dynasty on the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, and the day of the Xuanwumen Mutiny is not the time of the early dynasty, so there is no need to open the door so early. Where did Chang He get the palace door key, this is simply abnormal!

"Heavy snow, can you find an excuse to ask your subordinates for the palace key at night?" Shi Bufan asked again.

Dugu Daxue shook his head and said, "Impossible! At night, if there is no major military event, the door will never be opened. And if you want to open the door at night, you must get the emperor's consent, otherwise it is impossible to open the door. ”

"Yes! Herein lies the problem, the emperor must agree to open the door at night, otherwise it is impossible to open the door. If Li Yuan agreed, would he sit back and watch Li Shimin enter the palace gate with hundreds of armed men? Isn't this a contradiction? It's hard to explain! Shi Bufan thought again.

Even Shi Bufan thought of a situation, Li Shimin used Li Jiancheng and Li Yuanji to fornicate with Li Yuan's concubines Zhang Jieyu and Concubine Yin as an excuse, and then asked Li Yuan to call Li Jiancheng and Li Yuanji the next day, and then the Xuanwumen coup took place. But then there was another situation, that is, Zhang Jieyu didn't know what channel to go through, and she heard that Xuanwumen was not safe, and notified Li Jiancheng through some methods. But Li Jiancheng didn't care, indicating that Li Jiancheng got some news in advance, but he didn't care about it, which caused the tragedy later.

However, how did that Zhang Jieyu learn the news? Where did he get this news from, she is so powerful? If Li Yuan was kept in the dark, then how could she know. But if Li Yuan knew about this situation and then revealed it to her intentionally or unintentionally, would this make sense?

Zhang Jieyu, even if he wanted to inform Li Jiancheng, he would have to send someone. But when it was dark, how did she send someone to inform Li Jiancheng? This kind of private matter can't just go out of the palace in the dark night, what excuse can he find to let his people go out of the palace to ventilate and report the news? Could it be that the female officials who manage the keys in the Shanggong Bureau will take the initiative to cooperate?

There are too many problems and loopholes. How the Xuanwumen Mutiny went on back then is simply incredible. Maybe Li Shimin and others are in the status of "parties", so they can't see these effectively. But now, through post-mortem analysis, he found that Li Shimin's Xuanwumen mutiny had many loopholes, but they were inexplicably filled. None of those unreasonable doubts seem to have played a role, and even if one of these doubts fails, it will definitely cause the collapse of the Xuanwumen Mutiny.

And these doubts, it is certain that everything points to the emperor Li Yuan, is this emperor a fool? It can't be a fool, so does that mean that Li Yuan is the real behind-the-scenes operator? Shi Bufan suddenly thought of a possibility, could it be that Li Yuan wanted to take this opportunity to make Li Jiancheng and Li Shimin kill each other?

Li Yuan deliberately pretended not to know that Li Shimin had brought the army to Xuanwumen, but on the other hand, he intentionally or unintentionally revealed the news of Li Shimin's deployment of weapons in Xuanwumen through Zhang Jieyu, and then let Li Jiancheng know. If Li Jiancheng is prepared, and then let him and Li Shimin fight each other, so that Li Shimin and Li Jiancheng will definitely kill each other in Xuanwumen, and finally Li Yuan, as the emperor, will come out at this time to clean up the mess, wouldn't it be great?

When the time comes, Li Yuan can take this opportunity to directly abolish Li Jiancheng and Li Shimin together, which is equivalent to killing two birds with one stone to cut off the power of his two sons who can't be killed, and abolish them.

"It's terrible, if Li Yuan deliberately indulges these two sons to fight here, then such a time to cut off the power of the two sons and maintain his power as a father and king. Then he can abolish Li Jiancheng and Li Shimin in a grand manner, so that Li Yuan can truly become the emperor of the empire, and he can say that he is the emperor without being constrained by his two sons. Shi Bufan was a little shocked by his brain.

If you speculate on this brain hole according to Shi Bufan, can it also be explained? Those obviously suspicious points can also be explained clearly, that is, Li Yuan deliberately created opportunities for Li Shimin, and then hoped that Li Shimin and Li Jiancheng would fight, and then when the two sides were exhausted, he came out to clean up the mess and maintain his position. This may be why Li Yuan can leave obviously, but there is no great reason, because Li Yuan wants to pretend to be 13, and he can come out to clean up the mess when necessary.

"If you follow this inference, according to Li Yuan, you may really be unable to pretend to be ****. Li Yuan deliberately told Li Jiancheng the news of Li Shimin's mutiny through Zhang Jieyu, but Li Jiancheng didn't care, and then he still didn't bring too many soldiers into Xuanwu Gate. Originally, Li Yuan planned well, but Li Jiancheng was negligent for a while, and he believed too much in the guarding power of the palace. Or that he pinned his trust on Li Yuan, his father, to stop Li Shimin and other reasons. In short, no matter what, although Li Jiancheng knew in advance that Li Shimin wanted to mutiny, he did not pay attention to it or simply did not make any preparations. As a result, there was an imbalance of power within the Xuanwu Gate, and then Li Shimin successfully killed Li Jiancheng and Li Yuanji. ”

"As a result, Li Yuan didn't expect such a result, he pretended to be a ****, so it was really troublesome."

"In the later stage of Li Shimin and Li Jiancheng's martial arts, they are already in a state where the tail cannot be lost, and Li Yuan can tolerate it as a monarch? Will he want to find an opportunity to cut off the power of his two sons and maintain his imperial authority? It's not impossible, it's very possible. As this kind of king, there is an idea that 'what I give you is yours, what I don't give you, don't rob it'. This Li Jiancheng and Li Shimin's fight was too much, and it was already a serious threat to Li Yuan's monarchy. So it's not impossible for him to find an opportunity to make a move. But Li Jiancheng and Li Shimin have never had anything too excessive, or the timing is wrong. If there was a Xuanwumen mutiny this time, Li Shimin conspired, and Li Yuan deliberately revealed it through Zhang Jieyu, so that Li Jiancheng and Li Shimin fought, and he would clean up the mess. Li Yuan killed two birds with one stone and abolished the identities of these two sons, and then he could truly control the country without any scruples. ”

"If that's the case, then in fact, the real operator of the Xuanwumen coup is not Li Shimin, but Li Yuan! But Li Yuan was pitted by the 'accident of history'. Li Yuan had a good plan, and wanted to let Li Jiancheng and Li Shimin fight each other after the balance of strength, and he would clean up the mess. But Li Jiancheng didn't know why, and didn't bring too many escort troops over, which caused Li Shimin to easily kill Li Jiancheng and Li Yuanji. In the end, Li Yuan could have run, he believed too much that Li Jiancheng and Li Shimin would fight. As a result, in the end, Li Shimin quickly killed Li Jiancheng and Li Yuanji, causing Li Yuan's plan to completely collapse, and it was too late to go out and transfer troops. This Li Jiancheng may also be an accident in history, if he brings enough escort troops to fight with Li Shimin, then the final beneficiary of the result is Li Yuan, the emperor. When the time comes, he will cut off the strength of his two sons at one time, and he will become a real emperor. ”

"Li Yuan really demolished a good bridge and used his two sons, but now that the world is peaceful, it's time to cross the river and tear down the bridge. It's a pity that because of some historical accidents, his plan completely collapsed. He was also cheated by Li Shimin, maybe Li Shimin knew about Li Yuan's plan later, so he had to have the latter means. ”

Shi Bufan felt as if he was doing this, and he could explain the doubts about the Xuanwumen Mutiny, and if it was established in the case of Li Yuan personally taking action, then those so-called doubts would not be suspicious. And Li Yuan's intervention in this seizure of the heir is actually nothing more than wanting to cut off his own son, so as to maintain his position of power as the supreme ruler. It's a pity that because of some historical accidents, which caused the later results, Li Yuan's plan collapsed, and he had to face the fate of being abdicated.

[It's about to be 515, I hope to continue to hit the 515 red envelope list, and the red envelope rain will be able to give back to readers and promotional works on May 15. A piece is also love, and it must be better! 】