He Dong is worthy of being an old comprador who has been around the right and left, and he did an excellent job of building momentum before the speech, and he did not say that he would donate money but that he would make a fortune, and the Chinese businessmen present immediately welcomed Li Kongrong to the stage with warm applause. Pen fun and pavilion www.biquge.info

"Ladies and gentlemen, it is a pleasure to spend this wonderful evening with you." Li Kongrong did not understand Cantonese, so in order to allow more people to understand his words directly without translation, he simply spoke English. Most of the Chinese businessmen present knew English, and with their knowledge of soldiers, they were very surprised that Li Kongrong could speak English, and once again responded with more enthusiastic applause. Li Kongrong suppressed his applause and continued: "Here, I am not speaking as a soldier, I am just communicating with you as an overseas Chinese businessman, and the topic is how to ensure personal safety in the war and how to make a fortune in the war. (applause, laughter)

As we all know, there is a way to use soldiers, and there is naturally a way to do business, but there are always some people who do not understand anything who want to violate these simple principles, and they accuse the soldiers who abide by the way of using the army as traitors to the country, and the businessmen who abide by the way of doing business as profiteers. Let's just be clear: the regime established by such people probably won't last longer than the herbal tea on the streets. (applause, laughter)

Okay, let's get down to business. There was laughter in the clubhouse, only Song Ziwen's face was extremely stiff, Li Kongrong didn't look at him, and continued his speech by himself. For businessmen, war is always a crisis that cannot be ignored. At present, we are facing a situation in which Northeast China, North China, East China, and Central China have fallen, and many ports in Fujian and Liangguang have been occupied. The army could never be fought back, and some people believed that the Japanese invasion would eventually cause the foreign powers to intervene, repeating the past of the Three Kingdoms returning to Liao in 1895, and there were a few people who firmly believed in retreating to the southwest. The army can fight back on its own, and they are more convinced of this than the chairman of the Standing Committee. (Laughter)

In fact, what is the prospect of war, you can know by looking at the money, after all, the war is about money. In the same way of war, whoever spends more on military will win. Of course, if one side has more advanced combat methods, such as the battle of Germany to destroy Poland, and the battle of Lanfeng where the 88th Army annihilated the 14th Division, then there is also the possibility of winning the war with less military spending.

What is our actual situation? In '37, the Nanjing government's military expenditure was 1.388 billion legal dollars, in '38, due to incomplete data, the annual military expenditure was about 1.2-1.3 billion legal dollars, and this year, the military expenditure is estimated to be between 2.5 and 3 billion legal dollars[Note 72].

Military spending seems to have increased a lot, but just looking at the numbers is not enough, the fiat currency of one dollar in 37 years and the fiat currency of this year are fundamentally two different things, and the prices of goods at least today have also increased by two times, and in some places they have even increased by three times or five times. That is to say, with the fall of the country, especially Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Wuhan, and Guangzhou, Chongqing has fewer and fewer resources to mobilize.

If we assume that the price index in 37 years is 1, and the military expenditure in the following years is converted into 37 years of legal currency according to the price, then the military expenditure in 38 years is only 1 billion legal currency, and the military expenditure in 39 years seems to be 2 or 3 billion legal currency, but the actual military expenditure is less than 1 billion, probably about 7 or 800 million. If the 700 million or 800 million fiat currencies were converted into dollars at the pre-war exchange rate of 1 fiat currency to 30 cents, it would be a little more than 200 million US dollars.

Moreover, we can be sure that because of the shrinking of the control area and the blockade of foreign trade channels, Chongqing's military spending will be less and less in the future. My estimate is that we may be able to sustain $200 million in military spending next year, but from the next year, military spending will certainly be below $200 million, and in a few years it will be difficult to maintain even $100 million in military spending. Since we are businessmen, we can't just look at the fiat currency figures of the Ministry of Finance, the more fiat currency is issued, the more serious the inflation, and the faster the price rises. If there is no excessive issuance of fiat currency, Chongqing has no other way to maintain the war, so the more money is printed, and the face value is getting bigger and bigger.

The Nanjing government's military spending is like this, and how much military spending does Japan spend? In '37, 4.7 billion yen, in '38 it was 7.7 billion, and this year it will definitely exceed 8 billion, and it is difficult to say whether it will reach 9 billion [note 73]. Naturally, prices in China and Japan were also affected by the war, but the increase was very small, and I have received information from people in the banking circles that it has only risen slightly, not more than 20 percent. According to the method just now, Japan's military spending is also converted into US dollars, and Japan's military spending in 37 years was $940 million, in 38 years it was 1.57 billion yuan, and this year it is about $1.9 billion. China's military spending was only $410 million in the highest year, and then it has been declining year by year, and this year it is just over $200 million. Japan's military spending was $940 million in the lowest year, and it has been increasing year by year, approaching $2 billion this year, and the ratio of military spending between the two sides is 1:10.

Can you counterattack? Can you win? It depends on how you judge, and this judgment is related to your business, and even your net worth. How can this be broken? My suggestion is: If you keep staring at China and Japan, and keep staring at East Asia, then you will never be able to break through. The place that has decided the fate of the world and East Asia has been Western Europe in the last two or three hundred years, and it has never been East Asia itself, just as it was never Guangzhou itself that decided the fate of Guangzhou, but the Beijing court or the Nanjing government. It's frustrating, but it's reality, the reality that can't be reversed. We businessmen are like ants on a chess piece that keeps moving, and if we are not careful, the little bit of poor capital in our hands will fall into the water, and we can't afford to bubble up. (Applause, long applause)

The last war was actually a struggle for world supremacy in which the Second German Reich challenged the empire on which the sun never set, and Germany not only lost but was severely weakened. This European war was also a war in which Hitler's Third Reich challenged the world hegemony of the empire on which the sun never set. However, Hitler was much more shameless and cunning than Kaiser Wilhelm II, although he hated the Bolsheviks, he signed a non-aggression pact with the Bolsheviks to stabilize his eastern front, not only to stabilize the eastern front, but also to obtain a large amount of supplies from the Soviet Union to attack Britain and France. Europe's current 'fake war' is not not not fighting, but preparing for war, and with the present preparations, the war will start in April and May next year.

Many, many people thought that this war must be a repeat of the previous war, with long trenches and endless fighting for four or five years, and I said early on that within a month of the start of the battle the French army would be defeated, and within two months France would surrender to Germany. Li Kongrong deliberately paused for a long time when he said this, and his eyes swept over Song Ziwen only to find a man in a rear admiral's uniform sitting next to him, this was Chen Ce, the commander of the 4th Fleet.

"The surrender of France would have three consequences: first, Britain would be in an even more disadvantageous position, not only would the Calais Strait provide the best landing springboard for the Germans, but the French fleet would also be at the disposal of Germany; Second, the situation in Europe affects the Far East, if France surrenders to Germany, French Annam will not be respected by Japan, and the Japanese army is in Nanning at this time, and they will soon enter Annam Hanoi, and may use Hanoi as a springboard to attack Yunnan in the southwest rear. ”

"Wow-", it was okay to say one of them, but the Chinese businessmen present at the second time were not moved, and the scene was in an uproar, and several people raised their hands to ask questions, but they were suppressed by He Donghe and Zhou Junnian, chairman of the club.

"The third, and the last thing we all want to see, is that the Japanese are going south." Li Kongrong said this, turned to look at Lu Ruping and the others, and they immediately opened a huge map of East Asia. Li Kongrong walked to the front of the map and said: "Japan has always had two strategies, and the premise of both strategies is to force China to submit to itself and provide itself with sufficient material and manpower. Their first strategy: to unite Germany to flank the Soviet Union and swallow the Siberian region, which is called the northward advance; Second: Challenge the four countries of Britain, the United States, France and the Netherlands, swallow the Philippines and the entire South Sea colonies, and finally invade India to allow India to become independent, which is the so-called southward movement.

If France was defeated, it would not only provide Japan with a bridgehead to the south, but also strengthen Japan's determination to move south. Once Japan decides to move south, the fall of Hong Kong is just around the corner, the fall of Singapore is just a handful, and even a rebellion in India is foreseeable. After the Yunnan-Vietnam Highway to Nanning is cut off, the Yunnan-Burma Highway, the only international route, will also be cut off. As for the road ...... the north-west to the Soviet Union, I forgot to mention that if Japan decided to go south, it would definitely sign a non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union in advance to ensure that it would not fight on two fronts......"

Everyone was worried that the Japanese army was heading south, and they had already established an advance base in Sanya, Hainan, and once a war broke out with Britain, the United States, and the Netherlands, Hong Kong would definitely bear the brunt. In the midst of the confusion, someone stood up and asked, "What will happen to the Shanghai Concession if the Japanese go south?" As soon as this question was asked, someone rushed to answer: "We have all declared war on Britain, the United States and the Netherlands, and the Shanghai Concession will definitely not be able to keep it." ”

"Everyone, everyone, ......" He Dong, who was in turmoil, couldn't stand it anymore, he stood up and said: "If you have any questions, you can mention them at the end of the speech, and now let Hansheng finish the lecture first." ”

After He Dong finished speaking, the scene gradually returned to quiet, and Li Kongrong smiled and thanked him before continuing: "I know that everyone is very uneasy, but no matter how uneasy you are, the war will not develop as you hope. You have to be clear, you are just a businessman, not to mention the army of a country, even a few bandits can make you bankrupt. Merchants are so vulnerable, and now everyone can get rich and live more nourishingly than domestic merchants, precisely because you have the protection of the British Empire, but if France is defeated and surrendered, in the face of the threat of German landings on the Pas-de-Calais, in the face of the continuous bombardment of the Luftwaffe, the Far East will definitely give up, and even Singapore will be temporarily abandoned, but India is the lifeline of the empire, and that is where the British Empire will defend with all its might.

As for Japan, their biggest target in the south is the oil fields of Borneo, and it will take some time to digest Borneo before attacking India, and at the same time, Japan must also guard against an attack by the US Pacific Fleet in the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, if Japan is really determined to go south, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies will certainly not be able to hold on. There are two landmark events in judging whether Japan is going south, first: Japan and the Soviet Union signed a non-aggression pact or a neutrality treaty, which means that Japan wants to stabilize the Soviet Union and give up its northward advance. Second, the Japanese army was stationed in French Annam, which used to be Siam, and Siam used to be Malaya and Burma. To capture the South Seas, in addition to the Japanese Navy, the Japanese Army will also be stationed in the forward positions of French Annam and Siam.

If the Japanese army occupies Nanyang and the Philippines, it will not be Britain who will suffer the greatest losses, because the British base is in India; It is not the United States, which has long known that in the event of a war with Japan, the Philippines will definitely not be able to hold it in the early stage. First of all, the peace between Japan and the Soviet Union, arms aid from the Soviet Union will be cut off, and it will definitely not be seen after the winter counteroffensive that is now underway in China, how can there be a war without weapons and ammunition; Secondly, if Burma does not hold on, the only external passage to the Yunnan-Burma Highway will be cut off, not to mention that the Japanese army will also attack Yunnan along the Yunnan-Burma Highway and the Yunnan-Vietnam Railway. If Yunnan is lost, Chongqing will definitely move its capital again, maybe Xikang, maybe Tibet, maybe India.

I left Shanghai in April '37 and was on my way to Europe with a delegation to the UK. Before leaving, I mortgaged my house in Shanghai to the bank, and the fiat currency I lent was converted into pounds before the war and deposited in HSBC. It didn't take long for me to find out that the European war was inevitable, so the pound was quickly converted into dollars and deposited in a Swiss bank. And the German submarine, I knew it had to be driven a few months before the start of the German war, and without it it could not capture those two German cruise ships when Germany attacked Poland and declared war on Britain and France.

It's very pitiful to say, we captured the cruise ship only by a submarine and a 400-ton gunboat, and when we made the plan, everyone was worried that the German captain would crash into it desperately, but unfortunately he didn't, the German captain was very dedicated, which was better than the Japanese captain. After the capture of the cruise ship, when the war was about to start, the German navy did not dare to go to sea to pursue us, so they could only watch us go away.

This is a prediction of the world situation before the war, and the same is needed for doing business. I just briefly deduced how the world would change in the next few years. If the signing of the Japan-Soviet contract and the stationing of Japanese troops in French Annam really happened, then you must act immediately. Although the pound is depreciating, the pound is still safe - the British Empire is a world empire, and even if the German army crosses the English Channel and lands in England, the empire also has Canada, Australia, India and African colonies, and you will suffer a little loss at most, but it will not break your bones. If there is a way, you can also exchange it for real money, and the second is to buy stocks and bonds in the United Kingdom and the United States.

In order not to affect the war of resistance at home, the navy does not accept donations from overseas Chinese, but the navy will issue naval bonds next year, if you are confident in defeating Japan, you can buy this kind of naval bonds, the bonds are secured by the reparations for Japan's defeat, and the marines will also occupy parts of Japan as a hard guarantee to urge Japan to pay reparations after the war.

If you are worried that Britain and the United States will not be able to defeat Germany and the navy will not be able to defeat Japan, then the shipyards and steel mills that the navy acquired in the United States in the early stage will issue shares at the beginning of next year, that is, the subordinate industries of the New China Defense Joint Stock Company, and the total amount of shares issued will be close to $100 million, and the money from the sale will be directly invested in the fleet. Originally, these industries did not want to sell - the cost of building a simple 10,000-ton ship was a million dollars, and selling it to the British government could be sold for two million dollars, a 100 percent windfall profit, and now the major American banks are chasing the shipbuilding company managers and asking for loans, but the money lent is not enough to build a fleet, so the shipyards and steel mills have to sell it to make money.

In addition to shipyards and steel mills, helicopter companies and weapons companies under the New China Defense are likely to go public and sell some of their shares, but this will not be too much. Shipyards and steel mills only make money during the war, and after the war they lose money, and the helicopter companies and weapons companies will also make a big profit after the war, because we will never do what others have done, only do business that others do not do. By the way, Xinzhong Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., which has just launched a new drug penicillin, is also owned by Xinzhong, and in addition to penicillin, the company also has a new drug for the treatment of malaria, and this company will also issue a few shares to raise funds. ”

In a few words, several major companies under Xinzhong were outlined by Li Kongrong, and the scene was suddenly a little chaotic, many people had heard of Xinzhong Company, but they did not expect that Xinzhong Company was a company controlled by the Navy.

"People who have cash in hand can exchange pounds, gold and silver, or invest in shares and naval bonds of Singapore-China companies, and if you want to do something industrial, it's not impossible. The Navy's military spending is increasing year by year, last year it was about more than $10 million, this year plus two cruise ships exceeded $30 million, next year it will definitely reach 50 million, and when it comes to 41 years, the military expenditure will definitely exceed Chongqing, and in 42 and 43 years, as the Navy gradually advances to the Japanese island, the military expenditure will increase, and the military expenditure in the 44 years after landing in Japan is likely to exceed $1 billion.

Naval operations require a huge amount of supplies, and you can produce supplies. Weapons and shells are difficult to produce – but not necessarily, if you really have the determination to do so, the Navy can support you in production. Here I would like to emphasize that the navy is different from other regimes in the country, and the navy fully respects the merchants, not only respects but also protects them. What if the Japanese really went south, Britain had to temporarily abandon the Far East because of the tensions in Europe, and you and your family were unwilling to go to Chongqing, and the United States, Australia, and India could not get visas? You can find the Navy.

If you have Navy bonds in your hands, then you are a VIP of the Navy, and your security, the safety of your family, and the safety of your business can be handed over to the Navy. Your factories, shops, and properties are damaged by Japanese bombs, even if they are not bombed by Japan but by Britain or someone else, the Navy can help you get compensation from Japan as long as it is damaged by the war. He dismantled Japan without compensation, and the areas occupied by the navy belonged only to the navy, and the navy did not recognize any armistice treaties signed between Japan and Changchun, Nanjing, Chongqing, and Beijing. Killing people to pay for their lives, debts to pay off, the navy only recognizes the simplest and simplest truth in the world. (Applause for the first time in a long time)

If you don't buy Navy bonds, it doesn't matter, as long as the Navy does what it can, it will also save you from danger, of course, there is a premise, you have to listen to the command. If you want to withdraw, you will withdraw, don't wait and see, when the time comes, the fleet will not be able to enter, or if it comes in, it will not be able to leave, so it can only give up on you.

What I am saying today is not a lie, and I do not bother to tell a lie. It's too tiring to cover up a lie for ten lies, and a hundred for ten lies. Whether the Japanese will go south or not, you can judge by the two things I just said; Whether the company is a leather bag company, you can ask someone to verify it in the United States; As for whether the Navy can protect you-

In 37 years, the navy had only one Ninghai light cruiser and several supply merchant ships overseas, but this year, the navy has two training aircraft carriers, a 400-ton gunboat, a submarine, and more than 300,000 tons of merchant ships. By next year, the first aircraft carrier, the Ninghai, will be launched into service; The year after that, in 41, two more aircraft carriers were to be launched; In '42, two other larger 30,000-ton aircraft carriers under construction at this time will also be launched, and the Marine Corps recruited and trained in the United States will also be formed. At this time, the navy will not only be able to protect overseas Chinese, but will also engage in a decisive battle with the Japanese navy. (Applause, warm and long applause)"