The simultaneous existence of the Soviet bloc, the fascist bloc, the Anglo-American bloc, and the Asian League camp made the world in the thirties of the 20th century even more chaotic, and the entanglement between them put all parties in a terrible balance.

The biggest goal of Germany's special envoy to visit the Reich this time was to persuade China and the Asian League to abandon their alliance with France and instead form an alliance with Nazi Germany to attack the Soviet Union; if this goal could not be achieved, Germany would retreat and hope to continue to maintain the special relationship between China and Germany, and hoped that the Chinese Empire would continue to adopt a clearer policy of support for the Nazi Third Reich and support Nazi Germany's eastward expansion by attacking the Soviet Union.

During the visit of the German special envoy to China, Franklin. President Roosevelt publicized two correspondence between him and Emperor Song in a fireside chat, formally starting a war on conservatism at home and advocating a new Sino-American trans-Pacific partnership.

In the United States at this time, the [***] wave was very severe, but the pro-Chinese forces were also very strong, and the two sides had been fiercely fighting between conservatism and liberalism. It was only after President Roosevelt made clear his opposition to American conservatism that liberalism once again established its dominance over the United States.

This does not mean that the United States, Britain and France will completely ignore the problems between China and Europe and the United States, the root of all problems is still in trade, in the past decade, China has been the world's largest trade surplus, even during the Great Depression, China's foreign trade surplus did not shrink significantly.

China is willing to solve this problem.

After succeeding Ouyang Geng as interim prime minister, Gu Weijun, who was born as foreign minister, considered directly raising the exchange rate to resolve the international trade dispute between China and Europe and the United States, so as to promote the complete recovery of world free trade.

On the afternoon of the day when the German Führer's special envoy delegation went to Baoding as an observer to visit the military exercises in Baoding, the Chinese and French allies, Gu Weijun, the provisional prime minister of the Imperial Cabinet, went to the Central Palace to meet with Emperor Song.

Song Biao did not arrange a formal job that afternoon, but fished on the shore of the central lake.

The lakeside scenery is beautiful and shaded by green willows.

In the lakeside pavilion of Linchi Pavilion, Song Biao prepared a full set of tools, sat on the edge of the pavilion with a cool hat and fished, life pays attention to the combination of work and rest, Song Biao likes to do some simple entertainment activities in this leisure time, away from the troubles of military and political affairs.

The lake is a royal garden, but there are always a lot of people fishing here, most of them from the military department or the central cabinet, and the nearby vegetable farmers sometimes take advantage of the time before dawn to cast a net in the central lake to make some money.

The fish here are mainly carp and grass carp, but there are also other fish, and occasionally a yellow eel or sea snake can be caught, and the inner court is responsible for maintaining order and keeping the fish population stable, and the fish supply of the imperial inner court is mostly from here.

In October, Yanjing has begun to cool down, and the lakeside is breezy and breezy.

After Song Biao caught two carps that were not big or small, Gu Weijun also hurriedly arrived at the Linchi Pavilion and came to meet Song Biao.

After serving as the interim prime minister of the central cabinet of the empire, Gu Weijun did not have time to be so leisurely, accompanied by the chamberlain, he walked into the Linchi Pavilion, he bowed respectfully to the Emperor Song, and said: "Your Majesty has come to see the emperor." ”

Song Biao heard that it was his voice, and did not look back, continued to sit on the stone bench fishing, and asked Gu Weijun: "The United States is more interesting these days, I heard that you want to take this opportunity to hold an international free trade conference in Shanghai to negotiate the restoration of the world free trade situation before the Great Depression, the idea is very good, do you grasp it?" ”

Gu Weijun replied: "Back to the emperor, my subordinates think that whether the world can restore free trade depends on our country, and all countries have fallen into conservatism and closed policies, and China's trade surplus is too large is a comparative factor. As the old saying goes, a lot of trouble is not spring, and if China wants to truly become the new hegemon of the world, it should still establish special interests on a global scale, and the most convenient way to achieve this goal is free trade. For this reason, if China can make an adjustment in the exchange rate to support the European and American countries agreeing to China's proposal to restore the free trade policy before the Great Depression and establish a new free trade organization, although there will be a certain impact on China in the short term, it will certainly be conducive to the long-term development of the country in the long run. ”

Song Biao put the fishing rod aside for the time being, got up and motioned to the chamberlain next to him to prepare tea for Gu Weijun, and he also beckoned Gu Weijun to come over and sit down together.

There is a stone table and round bench on the side of the pond pavilion, which is a good place for fishing and cultivation.

Geothermal rehydration, it is better to drink white tea.

The royal family has always paid tribute to Fuding white tea, and Song Biao said that it is rare to invite Gu Weijun, the temporary prime minister, to drink white tea, and there is a plate of pistachios from Xinjiang Province on the side of the tea cup, he peeled a few grains, and pondered the words in his heart while eating.

After waiting for a while, he reminded Gu Weijun: "Your idea is very good, but I still suggest that you wait until the end of the parliamentary election and officially become the prime minister before thinking about this matter, so as not to be in case." ”

History always has problems beyond the control of many people, for example, Song Biao has always hoped that the next prime minister will be Chen Qimei, or one of the chief of the general staff, Jiang Fangzhen, and Chen Qicai, the minister of national defense, will be the prime minister of the cabinet, so as to better cope with the arrival of the war era.

As a result, Gu Weijun became the prime minister of the empire in such an unexpected way.

The empire has always had a kind of political habitual habit, as long as every prime minister is a qualified choice, he can basically serve two terms, or even three terms, Gu Weijun is definitely one of the best candidates, once he takes the first step to become a temporary prime minister, as long as he does not make mistakes, it basically means that he can serve two terms.

After all, Gu Weijun is also the first imperial cabinet premier from the head of the inner court, with a special identity and a special relationship with the emperor.

How could the emperor not support him?

Gu Weijun pondered for a long time and replied: "Your Majesty, your subordinates think that everything should be done at the right time, since the United States and Germany and other countries have followed China's domestic politics and expanded political axe spending to revive the economy, the world economic situation has improved significantly compared with previous years, and all countries have the intention to re-promote free trade. Most of these treaties still have five to ten years of validity, if countries ban the various emergency tariff protection policies established during the Great Depression, and return to the situation before the Great Depression, countries are bound to be difficult to resist the pressure of China's industrial exports, for our country, once the large-scale growth of exports, in the short term is indeed conducive to the national economy and people's livelihood, but in the long run, our growth is a kind of industrial weakening for other countries, and in the long run, it will continue to lead to the economic decline of various countries, and the world will fall back into a new economic crisis. Balance is a basic rule of the world, and only balance can make the world move forward more permanently in a stable manner. This year's situation is relatively good, countries are eager to promote the recovery of free trade, the situation is favorable to our country, it is easy for our country to fight for greater rights and interests, if it is postponed until next year, or the year after, then it will be entangled with the renewal negotiations of the Washington Naval Treaty, even if we do not sign this treaty, the situation in the whole world will be more responsible. Therefore, in the long run, it is the best time to hold negotiations on free trade recovery at the end of this year and early next year. ”

After a pause, he added: "Although the increase in the exchange rate is not good for exports in the short term, it is good for our country to import goods, expand foreign investment and domestic demand, which are the foundation of the empire." Considering the pros and cons, the cabinet may have to take a certain risk for this, but His Majesty has the responsibility to push this matter forward. ”

Now that he has made up his mind, Song Biao will no longer persuade him.

As long as the general direction is correct, Song Biao, as the emperor of the constitutional monarchy, is not willing to interfere in the normal affairs of the cabinet.

Compared with the longevity of the prime ministers of the Imperial Cabinet and the stability of the central policies, the prime ministers of the Imperial Cabinet are basically short-lived, and the central policies often fluctuate.

An important difference here is that the emperor also has the highest authority, and the Song emperor has the effect of maintaining the stability of the cabinet, as long as the cabinet is generally perfect and correct, even if there is more opposition in the country, the emperor's support can also make the cabinet steadily implement the new policy.

Now that Gu Weijun has made up his mind, all Song Biao can do is support.

Emperor, you must also have the consciousness of being willing to make green leaves for flowers.

On the shore of the lake in Linchi Pavilion, Song Biao and Gu Weijun, the Imperial Provisional Prime Minister, discussed the organization of the Shanghai Conference, most of the time, Emperor Song just listened quietly, and did not put forward too many ideas and initiatives, in general, Gu Weijun's consideration was still very comprehensive.

After Gu Weijun expounded all his thoughts, Song Biao did not rush to express his position, but asked him to go back to the cabinet to hold a regular meeting of ministers to discuss the details.

Too much talk can make you lose it all.

…… After all, Gu Weijun was born as a foreign minister, and he was keenly aware of every subtle change in the international political environment, and after obvious changes in the international environment, and with the support of the emperor, he couldn't wait to try to organize the Shanghai Free Trade Conference, and all countries reacted positively to it.

In December 1934, under the joint initiative of China, the United States, Britain and France, a total of 42 international and regional countries gathered in the Shanghai Huangpu International Special Economic Zone to hold talks on the resumption of world free trade.

On the issue of the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan, Gu Weijun put forward two plans, one is that the Chinese yuan will directly increase the exchange rate by about 15% in 1935, and the other is that the Chinese yuan will increase by about 4% every year in the next five years; But to achieve either of these two options, China would have to increase its gold reserves and foreign exchange to maintain its currency reserve ratio, while Britain, the United States, and France would have to ensure exchange rate stability.

With China's competitiveness in industrial exports too strong, there are now only two ways to restore free trade in the world: one is to completely reject the trade treaties that China signed with other countries after World War I and renegotiate new ones, and the other is to raise China's exchange rate.

When the treaty was signed with other countries, China was the supported party, and the treaty as a whole was beneficial to China, and if it wanted to renegotiate a new treaty with other countries, first, the cycle was too long, and second, it might not be able to win the terms of the past, so China would rather appropriately increase the gold content of the Chinese yuan and directly solve the problem of China's trade surplus with European and American countries by raising the exchange rate.

Britain and the United States basically agree on this, and also hope that it will be a direct increase in the surname to immediately solve the current trade imbalance problem, but Britain and the United States believe that the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan should be increased by at least 40 percent, and they are eager for the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan to increase by 70 percent.

The problem is that there is a big problem here, that is, once the gold content of the Chinese Circle increases by 40%, the economic aggregate gap between China and the United States will expand to the extent that it is difficult to catch up, and if the exchange rate of the Chinese Circle increases to this extent, the power of the Chinese Circle's export to the outside world will be stronger, and Britain and France will not be able to stand it.

The countries discussed from December 1934 until mid-January, and finally gave in to each step, and the Chinese dollar promised to increase the nominal gold content by 23.25%, which is a very large increase, but Britain, the United States and France transferred a part of the gold reserves to China, promised the State Bank of China to have a higher priority for gold reserves in the next five years, and the three countries also increased their holdings of the Chinese yuan by more than 2 billion yuan as foreign exchange reserves, reducing the proportion of the net working capital of the Chinese yuan.

Unlike the Plaza Accord, China is not an opponent that Britain, France and the United States can suppress, especially in terms of military and political hegemony in the region, and the three countries cannot unite against China, in order for China to agree to increase the gold content of the Chinese circle from 0.7505 grams of gold per circle to 0.925 grams of gold, Britain and the United States must pay the same huge price.

If Britain and the United States are not willing to back down, China would rather keep the situation as it is, because the current situation is generally more favorable to China, after all, China has two fixed markets, the Asian League and the Sino-French Alliance, and the demand in the domestic market is also one of the largest in the world.

Therefore, in order for China to raise its exchange rate, all countries must sign a package of agreements with China at the Shanghai Free Trade Conference to ensure China's priority in absorbing gold reserves, ensure that China can effectively maintain the new exchange rate and currency reserve ratio of the Chinese yuan, and the markets of Europe, the United States and other countries must not adopt any form of restrictive and exclusive measures against China, and China must still enjoy universal most-favored-nation trade treatment.

In fact, after the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan increased by 23.25%, China's industrial products still have a certain degree of cost advantage, and through the reasonable tax reduction policy within the political axe, it can further make up for the loss of cost advantage, and the key is to expand the entire market.

After the problem of the exchange rate between China and the United States was resolved, it was easier for the countries to sign a pan-world free trade convention at the Shanghai Conference, and as the main convening country and chair of the conference, China also put forward a set of proposals on a priority basis.

According to this scheme, the World Free Trade Convention divides countries into four classes, namely one, two, three and four, corresponding to developed countries, moderately developed countries, developed countries and low-developed countries, and the main criterion for judging is the per capita income level of each country.

If you want to join the World Free Trade Association, you must first sign the World Free Trade Convention, and the country must pass a series of labor protection laws to limit the minimum wage, according to this principle, demarcate the four countries, determine the labor costs of each country, and the member countries of the WTO must give corresponding treatment to other member countries in the formulation of tariffs.

On the whole, countries with higher per capita costs will enjoy higher tariff preferences in other WTO members, and conversely, countries with lower per capita costs will enjoy less tariff preferences.

On the basis of the WTO, each country has the right to formulate its own tariffs, but not higher than the three-level upper limit stipulated in the WTO, the lower the level of development, the higher the tariff ceiling that can be formulated, and conversely, the more developed the country, the lower the tariff ceiling.

At the same time, countries may also formulate separate rules that are different from those of the WTO in bilateral international trade and regional international trade.

After a game between countries, the Shanghai WTO Convention was finally voted on by all countries in March 1935, because the convention was basically completely opposite to the requirements of the original version, which withdrew from the treaty negotiations at the last minute and refused to join the World Free Trade Association.

Because the Shanghai WTO Convention has a series of trade regulations and regulatory restrictions behind it, only countries that have enacted and implemented these laws in their own countries can become members of the WTO.

In addition, the main problem is that its tariffs are too high; in addition, it considers itself a developed country, but its per capita income level can only be included in the list of developing countries, and the cabinet and the people generally believe that it has lost its national identity and is unwilling to join the WTO according to the standards of a third-class country.

The World Free Trade Association was preparing for the negotiations in Shanghai, and China was the organizer and chair of the conference, so it avoided talking about Britain, France, the United States, and other countries in China, deliberately believing that it was China that was suppressing Japan, and even broke out in the country on an unprecedented scale.

He thinks he is one of the world's top powers, but his absence does not have much impact on the entire WTO.

China's per capita income level is still only 40% of that of the United States, so it continues to participate in the WTO as a moderately developed country after the exchange rate increased by 23.25 percent, and its per capita income is still only 40 percent of that of the United States.

At this time, the Shanghai International Free Trade Convention, the World Free Trade Association and later the WTO were still incomparable, but in this convention, developed and developed countries had more room to protect their own economies, and the overall rules were actually relatively more favorable to industrial powers.

So, the world's first-rate countries are the ones that make the rules.

China is a special country, relatively low in per capita income, but in terms of technology and industrial scale, it is a real great power, and China takes the lead in formulating the rules, which will inevitably be more beneficial to China on the whole, and for countries such as Britain and the United States, they will have what they need.

With the package agreement between China and the United Kingdom and the United States on the increase and compensation of the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan, as well as the signing of the "Shanghai WTO", the world economy has returned to the international free trade situation before the Great Depression has been the general trend, and the substantial increase in the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan also means that China's overseas investment can continue to increase, and the "Shanghai WTO" also effectively protects the equal rights and obligations of all member countries to invest in each other.

On the whole, China will continue to be the world's leading industrial exporter, and will also remain the world's best investment and consumption market; after the signing of the "Shanghai WTO," it can be expected that China's capital exports to foreign countries will increase significantly, and the investment of European and American countries in China will also increase.

In order to offset some of the negative impacts of the increase in the exchange rate on the national economy, Gu Weijun's provisional cabinet also urgently passed a number of new bills and revised regulations to further reduce or reduce agricultural taxes, strengthen the industrial and agricultural export tax rebate mechanism, and withdraw from a series of credit adjustment policies to expand the domestic investment space for domestic demand.

(To be continued)