Causes of the 377th Great Famine
In a brightly lit rectangular room with elaborate frescoes on the roof, a row of military maps hung on the walls, densely packed with arrowheads, pins, and other military symbols and troop numbers. Trotsky sat behind a teak desk piled high with papers. A ceramic ashtray in the hands of the revolutionary prophet was filled with cigarette butts, which indicates that he returned to work here after the political bureau meeting.
Opposite him sat two people side by side, one was Li Kev, an alternate member of the Political Affairs Bureau and chairman of the State Planning Commission, he was wearing a well-cut new suit, his mustache was also very neatly trimmed, and he was holding a thick stack of papers, which should be the nth draft of the first five-year plan of the Soviet Union, which had just been formulated. The other was the new People's Commissar of Agriculture, Stalin, who looked very tired and had bloodshot eyes, who had supported Trotsky in the struggle against the "bukharinists" in the party, and was therefore paid by the Central Committee and the People's Commissar of Food, and the Trotskyites were now polite to him. But Stalin knew very well that he was still a Leninist and could not count on defecting to Trotsky - and his opposition to Bukharin was not for Trotskyism, but only for self-preservation. He had come with Rykov today to report to Trotsky on the formulation of the First Five-Year Plan. Although the focus of the first five-year plan was heavy industry, the current pace of development of heavy industry in the Soviet Union was closely linked to the export of agricultural products.
The big cadres in charge of the economic work of the Soviet Union had quarreled countless times about the priority of the development of heavy industry, light industry, and agriculture during this period -- although the general line of economic work had already been set as the priority for the development of heavy industry. However, when the plan was really formulated, the cadres in charge of the economy found that the initial stage of the development of heavy industry was inseparable from the strong support of light industry and agriculture, and the relationship between the three was much closer than originally thought!
"Lev. Comrade Davidovich," said Rykov, frowning as he placed a stack of texts in his hand in front of Trotsky. "At your request, we have reformulated our plans and the scale of investment in heavy industry has been pushed to the limit."
Trotsky flipped through the stack of texts in front of him and interrupted: "Have you reached the limit?" Could it be a little bit bigger? We are a country surrounded by capitalism, and it is necessary to build in the shortest possible time a powerful heavy industry, which is necessary to defend Soviet power and promote the world revolution. ”
"It's the limit. The construction of heavy industry requires the import of equipment and the construction of a large number of supporting projects, which requires the use of a lot of foreign exchange and labor, both of which require the consumption of agricultural products - the main products we can now export are agricultural products, and most of the labor force in the construction of heavy industry and supporting facilities is also the original agricultural population, who were originally producers of agricultural products, but now they have become consumers......"
"Then get the produce from the farmers!" Trotsky turned to Stalin and asked gently: "Joseph. Comrade Vissarionovich, under your leadership, the agriculture of the USSR will certainly serve industrialization well, don't you say? ”
Stalin sighed softly. Shake your head. "I'm sorry, Comrade Trotsky. I am afraid that I will fail to live up to the trust of you and Comrade Lenin. I can't get more out of the countryside, at least not by the People's Commissariat of Agriculture alone. ”
"Why? From October 1921 to the present day, we have received a lot from the countryside and have effectively guaranteed the war for the liberation of Poland and East Prussia, and this is all thanks to you, Comrade Stalin. ”
There was a look of helplessness in Stalin's eyes. "Alas, you should understand that it was all based on the confiscation of the kulaks. From this year onwards, there are no kulaks left in the countryside to confiscate. There are only two ways for us to obtain agricultural products, one is agricultural tax; The second is requisition. ”
"Then let's requisition, is there any problem?" Trotsky asked earnestly.
"There's a problem," Stalin shrugged. "But what do we use to requisition?"
"What else can be used? Rubles! Trotsky said with a smile. We have enough rubles, don't we? ”
"It is not enough to have rubles, there must be enough goods, otherwise the rubles are useless paper." Rykov took the question. Replied loudly. "Now that the funds are used to develop heavy industry, the output will not increase if the necessary inputs are not obtained in the production of light industry...... Then the ruble that we issue in large quantities is useless paper, and it is impossible to exchange it for enough agricultural products! ”
"Yes. Comrade Rykov was quite right. Stalin echoed. In fact, we do not exchange agricultural products with the peasants in rubles, but with all kinds of light industrial products that can improve the lives of the peasants. If we need more agricultural products, we must produce enough good enough cloth, furniture, toys, radios, gramophones, confectionery, and so on...... With these things, our ruble is the currency. ”
"Well, that's a problem!" Trotsky's gaze swept over the faces of Rykov and Stalin, and both had a chill down their spines. Then the revolutionary prophet smiled slightly, and said slowly: "But the development of light industry also requires the use of foreign exchange and labor, and the machinery for the production of light industrial products also needs to be imported, and factories also need to be built, and raw materials for the production of light industrial products also need to be imported...... That is to say, before a large number of factories producing light industry are completed and put into operation, we still need to use useless paper to purchase agricultural products for export arbitrage, right? ”
Stalin and Rykov looked at each other and nodded at the same time. At present, the Soviet Union has begun to implement a planned economy, and the little foreign capital that had been attracted by the New Economic Policy has begun to withdraw. This also means that in the future, all industrial sectors in the Soviet Union must be invested by the state, and it is impossible to use foreign capital and private capital to develop light industry and invest the country's financial resources in heavy industry, as is the case in China today.
Trotsky frowned, his gaze swept back and forth over the large stack of documents on the First Five-Year Plan of the Soviet Union in front of him. "Since giving priority to the development of light industry also requires the use of rubles to requisition agricultural products to arbitrage, then why can't we give priority to the development of heavy industry? After the development of heavy industry, it can be used as a production machine for light industry. In this way, the development of light industry will certainly be able to catch up in a very short time. Moreover, the developed heavy industry could also produce advanced agricultural machinery and electrify agriculture, which in turn contributed to the rapid development of Soviet agriculture. Therefore, my opinion is that the key to the success or failure of our business is to give priority to the development of heavy industry. ”
"So, how to solve the problem of requisition of agricultural products? Revert to wartime gcism? Stalin asked. After successfully liberating Poland and East Prussia and encircling the three Baltic states, Trotsky's prestige in the Soviet Union had surpassed that of Lenin, and he decided that even Lenin could only go along with it. Therefore, Stalin did not intend to oppose Trotsky's "final decision" to give priority to heavy industry. All he had to think about now was how to accomplish the tasks assigned to him by the Prophet of the Revolution - a matter of his head.
"No, don't revert to wartime gc......ism," Trotsky continued, "and we should have a better way than machine-gun requisitioning units, such as collective farms. The problem encountered in the requisition of agricultural products is that some peasants are unwilling to accept our bids, and this is not only an economic problem, but also a struggle between the socialist system and the capitalist system! Because private ownership is still practised in the countryside in the Soviet Union, the peasants are small producers, petty bourgeoisie. They do not work under the leadership of the party for the construction of socialism, but for the development of their private economy. That's why we will encounter the problem of difficulty in requisitioning agricultural products. The only solution to this problem was the socialist transformation of the Soviet countryside. Collectivization of agriculture was introduced. Centralize the power of rural and agricultural production in our hands so that we have as many agricultural products as we need! ”
Rykov sighed inwardly. As a cadre who had long been in charge of managing the country's economy, he certainly knew what Trotsky's collectivization of agriculture was - it was nothing more than a form of serfdom in disguise, the transformation of the now free Soviet peasants into serfs on collective farms.
Stalin also frowned, not so much sympathizing with the Soviet peasants who were about to become serfs, but worried about another problem. "Lev. Comrade Davidovich, at present the People's Commissariat of Agriculture has also carried out several pilot projects on collective farms, but the results are not very satisfactory, and the peasants' enthusiasm for work does not seem to be as high as imagined. The 1922 sowing plans of several farms were barely completed. And farming is really hard to supervise. You won't know how well you do your job until the harvest. ”
"I know these things, but it's mostly a matter of ideology...... China's Chang Ruiqing has long said that our socialism can only be built by saints. Trotsky smiled. But I have already thought of a way to turn the workers and peasants of the USSR into saints! ”
"Is there such a way?" Rykov asked suspiciously.
Trotsky replied: "Of course there is a way, and that way is the class struggle!" In the past, I thought that the only way to transform ordinary workers and peasants into a new generation of laborers with GC ideals was to rely on ideological education. However, after several years of practice and reflection, I have found that it is not enough to rely on ideological education alone, but also to give all workers and peasants the pressure to transform their own thinking, and this pressure can only be achieved through the class struggle! ”
For this statement. Rykov was very surprised, while Stalin showed an expression of extreme approval.
"Comrade Rykov. Comrade Stalin," Trotsky pondered, "the first five-year plan was to take into account the elements of collectivization of agriculture. In the era of Tsarist Russia, China's grain exports exceeded 10 million tons! Now we have a more superior socialist system. There should also be a large increase in grain exports, reaching 15 million tons! Do you have faith? ”
"15 million tons?" Rykov gasped in his heart. According to the statistics of the People's Commissariat of Agriculture, the total grain production in the USSR in 1921 was less than 55 million tons - and this statistic was considered by even Stalin himself to be very watery!
"Okay! In 1923, grain exports were set at 15 million tons. Stalin patted his chest and assured. But to whom is that much grain going to be sold? Now Western countries are imposing a trade embargo on our country, and they will not buy our grain, not even Polish grain. ”
"We can export to China and Japan. China, in particular, is a very large market, with at least 10 million tonnes of grain imported every year. And they can also export these Soviet grains to Europe and the United States in the name of Chinese grains...... Isn't the Far Eastern Republic now conducting transactions in this regard with the same Chinese company? Trotsky lit a cigarette and took two puffs. Now Comrade Timiviev is discussing with Mao Zd and Zhou E of the Chinese G, and I think the Chinese G should be able to help with this. ”
"I think Comrade Stalin and I can also directly participate in the negotiations with China." At this time, Likov proposed to build yì.
"Well, that's it, you also participate in the negotiations, and you must try to get as much export share as possible for the USSR."
When they talked, Mao Zd, Zhou Elai, and Zhong Zhijie had just met Lenin and Dimiviev at the Liuks Hotel. The other side demanded that China help the Soviet Union break the imperialist trade sanctions, and also offered to export large quantities of timber, furs, ores, meat products, dairy products, and so on to China. When they returned to the premises of the CG delegation. Another phone call came from the Liuks Hotel, saying that the Soviet Union also wanted to export grain to China, and at the same time, it also had to communicate with the Chinese import machine.
Putting down the phone, Zhong Zhijie smiled and said to Mao ZD and Zhou E: "It seems that the Soviet Union doesn't want to fight anymore, and the focus of their work has returned to construction." ”
Mao ZD took a cup of Russian coffee handed by Yang Kaihui, who accompanied him on his visit to the Soviet Union, and took a sip. "E, do you think our chairman is willing to help the Soviet Union?"
"Possibly." Zhou E said, sat down in a chair, and he still had a leather bag on his lap. It was filled with information about the Soviet collective farms that he had just taken from the GC International Headquarters. Like Mao Zd, he is not very satisfied with the "kulak line" that is currently emerging in Xinjiang. There was hope for a new and more effective form of organization of agricultural production, and this collectivization seemed to be the way out. He thought for a moment and said: "However, the Standing Committee Chairman has very strict control over imports, and China's heavy industry construction also needs foreign exchange. As he spoke, he glanced at Zhong Zhijie. Comrade Zhijie, do you think there is any way to get the best of both worlds? ”
Zhong Zhijie was taking food from a plate full of pastries, and when he heard Zhou Elai's words, he smiled and said: "I'm going to the embassy to find a commercial counselor, and I have to ask someone who knows how to trade matters, maybe I can really help the Soviet Union." ”
Mao Zd put down the coffee cup in his hand and whispered in an interested tone, "I'll go with you." ”
"Then let's have something to eat first." Zhong Zhijie picked up a piece of cake and swallowed it in a few bites. Then he wiped his hands and took the coat handed over by his Russian wife. Together with Mao ZD, he strode out, while Zhou Elai stayed at the delegation's residence to study the issue of agricultural collectivization.
The commercial counselor of the Chinese Embassy in the Soviet Union was a man in his thirties, white and chubby, who looked a bit like a businessman, his name was Zhang Deyi, and his name was Wending. is a Master of Business and Law from the United States. He also served as the trade representative of the state-run China Import and Export Corporation in the Soviet Union, but he did not do much of his job. China's bulk exports at the moment are soybeans, bristles, barrels of oil, tea, silk, coal and iron ore. The main markets are Europe, the United States and Japan, which basically do not export to the USSR. And the market for Soviet furs, timber, and various ores in China is not large. Therefore, after hearing the news that the Soviet Union was preparing to export a large number of agricultural products to China, I couldn't help but be a little stunned.
"This ...... This is not a question of whether to help the USSR or not. This is business, and there are no fathers and sons in the business. Zhang Deyi shook his fat head and said. If it is profitable, we can, of course, import Soviet agricultural products...... We can use Soviet agricultural products to put them on the domestic market, export some of the domestic agricultural products, and at the same time earn commissions for the Soviet Union through the guò re-export machine...... Well, there should be something to do. But ......"
Listening to the business counselor talk about the business experience, Mao ZD waved his hand impatiently. "But what? If you have any difficulties, just say it. ”
"It's not the difficulty, it's the price." Zhang Deyi said. "Mr. President, the main production area of the Soviet Union's agricultural products is in Europe, more than 10,000 kilometers away from China, and the transportation cost will be very high, and there will also be a factor of taxes.
"It's not something we're going to think about." Zhong Zhijie interrupted. "Brother Wen Ding, now we are only talking about the big principle, since this matter is feasible, then we will jointly make a report to Nanjing. If Nanjing also had this intention, it would naturally have come to the Soviet Union to negotiate with them. ”
Zhang Deyi thought about it and felt that it made sense, so he took out a pen and paper and drafted a report to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce in Nanjing. After reading it, Zhong Zhijie changed a few words, signed it, and asked him to send the report to Ambassador Shao Lizi, and after the ambassador's approval, he would send it to Nanjing by telegram. However, at this time, no one would have imagined that the result of their good intentions to help the Soviet Union would be the first planned famine in human history.