911th Modernization is Urbanization

"With these preferential policies, agricultural cooperatives should be quickly accepted by farmers in the Greater China Federation, right?" Chang Ruiqing smiled and asked everyone in the conference room, and everyone nodded. As far as the current financial resources of the federal government are concerned, these preferential treatments given by Chang Ruiqing are already very in place.

Chang Ruiqing turned his gaze to Mao Zd and Zhou Elai again, and he smiled: "President, Elai, the cabinet will go all out to promote the matter of cooperatives, but even if cooperativeization is implemented, the trend of land concentration and urbanization is inevitable." In fact, agricultural cooperatives themselves should also be based on land concentration, don't you think? ”

"The prime minister is right," Mao Zd smiled faintly, he understood what Chang Ruiqing meant. "I think the second land reform plan proposed by the prime minister is also feasible in principle, e, what do you say?"

"Yes, judging from the development trend of American agriculture, it is true that traditional small-scale peasant production is not competitive, and once the capitalist farms appear in Central Asia and Siberia, the small-scale peasant economy in the eastern region will soon fall apart, which is the inevitable result of the development of social productive forces, and it is not something we should resist." Zhou Elai tightened his eyebrows: "The agricultural cooperatives we are promoting now are actually a model of agricultural industrialization, but it is difficult to say whether they can compete with American-style capitalist farms in the future, let alone the hundreds of millions of small farmers in the east." ”

Speaking of this, Zhou Elai couldn't help but sigh, as if he felt sorry for the small peasant production that was about to collapse, and Chen Duxiu also sighed: "In the process of its development and growth, the advanced productive forces will inevitably destroy the backward productive forces. There's no way around it. In the past nearly 20 years, with the industrialization process of our country, the original handicraft production has also shrunk on a large scale. It was replaced by more advanced big industry, and this inevitably happened in agricultural production. And all we can do is to make this process as low as possible not to have an impact on the stability of society. ”

"No, it won't be a shock." Chang Ruiqing smiled and waved his hand: "While large-scale agricultural production achieves small-scale peasant economy, we should also make every effort to promote urbanization, in fact, the real focus of my second land reform is not to promote land concentration, but to attract farmers to the city." ”

Speaking of which. Chang Ruiqing's expression was a little proud, he was a "man from history" who knew all the problems encountered by China's urbanization in another time and space. Until the second decade of the 21st century, there was still no urbanization path suitable for China's national conditions. And in this time and space, it was only 1936 that he, the Chinese premier, had already found a way to urbanize.

"The way to urbanization is to focus on megacities. Help, not hinder, farmers from living and working in megacities. Moreover, it is necessary to let the people, including peasants and workers, settle down and buy homes in the megacities, and the fact that the peasants have settled down in the cities will greatly promote the development of China's real estate industry. ”

Everyone was stunned for a moment when they heard the word "real estate industry", and now at the enlarged meeting of the Central Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the People's Republic of China, everyone here except Chang Ruiqing will not do business, and of course they don't know how big the real estate business can be, let alone imagine the land finance in the future......

I don't really understand it. Chang Ruiqing then began to paint a picture of the spring of Chinese real estate. "Comrades, since everyone thinks. It is inevitable that big agriculture will replace small agriculture, so you should also know that big agriculture requires far less labor than small agriculture. If the eastern regions eventually develop into agricultural cooperatives, and the northwest develops into American-style farms, how many more farmers will be needed in the country? I'm afraid 150 million is enough, right? And how many peasants do we have now? Nearly 500 million! This means that in the next 20 or even 15 years, at least 350 million people will move into cities. Well, it's definitely more than that, because our population is still growing at a faster rate. In 20 years, it could reach 1.3 billion! ”

Speaking of the number of 1.3 billion, Chang Ruiqing's brows furrowed slightly, but the other high-level executives present were smiling, it seemed that no one thought that 1.3 billion or even more people would become a problem, after all, the current Great China Federation is really a big country.

However, Chang Ruiqing, who has experience in later generations, knows that population growth is certainly an important driving force for economic development, but excessive population will also increase the pressure on resources and land. Although the land and resources of the Great China Federation in this time and space seem to be the largest in the world, if you take the average population of 680 million, it is far less than the people of the United States, Germany and Britain. And because China's urbanization rate is low, so the birth rate is much higher than that of the United States, Britain and Germany, if you can't improve the urbanization rate, it is possible for China's population to exceed 2 billion in the future!

Chang Ruiqing hummed and continued: "If China's total population reaches 1.3 billion in 20 years, and the rural population remains at 150 million, our urban population will reach 1.15 billion. And 60 to 70 percent of them will live in urban agglomerations with the eight metropolises as the core. ”

"What? 70% of 1.15 billion is 805 million people! So many people live in 8 metropolises? That is, every metropolis will have 100 million inhabitants!? Zhou Elai counted with his fingers, and was the first to raise an objection. Prime Minister, when has there ever been a city with more than 10 million inhabitants? Isn't it an international joke to get a city to reach 100 million inhabitants? ”

Chang Ruiqing smiled and said: "I don't agree with Xiangyu's words, how many people there are in our eight metropolises is not how big the cities are in the eastern and western countries, but how big the area of the eight metropolises is. At present, the total usable land area of the eight metropolises is about 35,000 square kilometers, and this figure does not include water and mountainous areas, which means that they can be built into urban areas. ”

"That's not enough to house 800 million people!" Mao ZD also agreed: "Even if all 35,000 square kilometers are built into urban areas, how many people can be placed in each square kilometer?" It won't be more than 10,000, right? If you can put 400 million people, it will be up to the sky. ”

Chang Ruiqing nodded, and then his words continued: "President, I mean that in the future, there will be 700 million to 800 million people living in the urban agglomeration centered on the eight metropolises, and at that time, between Shanghai and Nanjing, between Guangzhou and Hong Kong, between Beijing and Tianjin, as well as around the three towns of Wuhan, as well as most of the Liaodong Peninsula, there will be cities with concentrated populations. The total area of these urban agglomerations will certainly be several times or even ten times that of the eight metropolises, and it will be more than enough to house 700 million to 800 million people. Of course, there is a process of population agglomeration, and it cannot be completed overnight. Even if we use the second land reform to promote it, I am afraid it will take 10 to 20 years to complete this process. During this period, a large number of industries related to urban infrastructure and real estate will flourish, generating hundreds of millions of jobs. In the future, the former agricultural population who will enter the eight metropolises will find jobs in urban housing with the help of the government's second land reform policy, and on the other hand, they will find jobs in housing and urban construction-related industries, which will be a virtuous circle. ”

"Housing prices in the eight major cities don't seem to be cheap now, right? Is it possible for farmers to afford it? Chen Duxiu shook his head and expressed doubt, he was very clear about the financial resources of ordinary farmers, and it was not easy to maintain food and clothing after a year of hard work. Even if you enter the city, you are empty-handed, how can you afford the high housing prices in the eight major cities?

"Mr. Zhongfu, the housing prices in the eight metropolises are very cheap!" Chang Ruiqing shook his head helplessly, it is indeed tiring to discuss real estate with these GCD people who have no business experience in their heads, this house that is not cheap in Chen Duxiu's mouth must be the garden house he lives in, and it is not the unit house that farmers and workers need at all.

Then he sighed, and began to describe in detail to everyone present the bright prospects for the development of China's real estate industry in the future -- the prospect is of course good, more than 1 billion people will enter the city in the future, if calculated according to a family of four houses, 250 million houses will be needed, of course, the actual demand will definitely exceed 250 million units, maybe it can reach 300 million or even 400 million units -- the Great China Federation will not engage in any real estate purchase restrictions, more than 30 million square kilometers of land are placed there, Can't satisfy the people's love for real estate? In addition, local governments also need the real estate tax paid by property owners to carry out construction!

Therefore, Chang Ruiqing's real estate policy is actually to open up buying and building, and there is no red line for arable land. Not to mention that there is so much land in Central Asia and Siberia that can be cultivated, let's just say that after the population is concentrated in the big cities, won't the original rural houses be demolished for farming? Does it mean that the population will occupy a larger housing area in the big cities than in the countryside?

In the future, a large amount of residential demand, including the construction of urban commercial, industrial and office properties, the construction of urban infrastructure, and the construction of transportation in the metropolitan area, will not be less than 10 trillion yuan when the construction demand and real estate demand brought about by urbanization are added together! The economic growth brought about by the development of the steel, building materials and construction industries driven by these needs is also astronomical.

Therefore, the modernization of the Federation of Greater China is actually urbanization, as long as a series of urban agglomerations centered on the eight metropolises are built, the Federation of Greater China will be a truly developed country.

Everyone was dumbfounded, and they all felt that what Chang Ruiqing said was very reasonable, but it was unbelievable. Zhou Elai is a person who is familiar with local construction, and when he listens to Chang Ruiqing's words at this moment, he also feels that he seems to be in the clouds, and the incomparably beautiful prospects are in front of him, but it is difficult to touch. (To be continued......)