7 On the day of the second beater, when everything was ready, Pei Chengyi, Liu Xiaobin, and Yuan Chen went to Yuanfu in a stunned manner. [No pop-up novel network]

Because this report is related to the basic strategy of the Republic in the next few years and even decades, Pei Chengyi and others still attach great importance to it when it is only an informal work report, and Yan Jingyu also attaches great importance to it. There is no doubt about Yan Jingyu's ambition, but no one can be sure that Yan Jingyu has the eloquence of a generation of great men. In any case, the high seriousness he takes on this incident has proven his strategic vision. The address of this site has been changed to: just a mouthful of milk... ８。 Please log in to the valve!

In the past, the director reported the work in the same way, and first quietly reported the situation of the supervisor.

Liu Xiaobin did not reserve anything, but focused on the attitude of the Iraqi authorities on the issue of foreign expansion. As the intelligence agency in charge, Liu Xiaobin strictly adhered to Pan Yunsheng's rule that he only provided national leaders with an intelligence basis for making strategic decisions, without providing any reference advice. This is because intelligence itself has the ability to influence decision-making, and the responsible persons of intelligence agencies have great powers, and if they provide reference opinions in decision-making, they will not only be able to influence the basic strategy of the state, but will even be able to overhead the country's leaders, and the responsible persons of intelligence agencies are in essence only administrative personnel, not even soldiers, and if they cannot strictly restrain their own behavior, they will easily be squeezed out by the leaders of the state, thus losing their due role and status, and adversely affecting the situation of the country.

The situation is simple and basically does not need to be detailed.

Because of the full assistance of the republic, the country's economic construction has entered a high lane, so in about two fierce years, Iraq surpassed Saudi Arabia and became the second largest economic power in the Arab world after Egypt. As a direct result of the expansion of economic power, the ambition of foreign expansion has re-emerged, and the propaganda of the Republic, whether intentional or not, has led almost all Iraqis to believe that it is obliged to unify the entire Arab world, and that the first thing to do is to recover the former "Kuwait Province".

"What will happen if we don't intervene?

Probably Yan Jingyu's question was too direct, so Liu Xiaobin thought for a while before he spoke: "More than 20 years ago, we obtained some top-secret information from the fourth, one of which is related to the Gulf War in the last century. The main purpose of the US intelligence agencies in trying to induce Saddam to invade Kuwait was not to control the world's oil depots, or that was only one of the main purposes

Yan Jingyu frowned slightly, and motioned for Liu Xiaobin to continue.

Although Yan Jingyu, as the head of the country, has access to all the top-secret information, no country has access to all the top-secret information of the republic, because the yuan is not the head of the intelligence agency, and he has no obligation to devote too much energy to some common-sense issues, nor does he have time to read too much information.

"As we all know, the Iran-Iraq war between Iraq and Iran has had a very big impact on the Arab world, and Liu Xiaobin knows what Yuan needs to know, so he only introduced some key issues." Although the Iran-Iraq war was fought very ugly, and neither Iraq nor Iran was able to make reasonable use of the advanced weapons in their hands, this war has helped the Arab world to a great extent out of the shadow of the previous Arab-Israeli wars, and many Arab countries have once again found the same goal. More importantly, Iraq's positive performance has replaced Egypt. The role of becoming a leader in the Arab world. In fact, Saddam Hussein also had such ideas and ambitions

Yan Jingyu smiled, indicating that he understood the meaning of these words.

Before the Gulf War, Saddam Hussein could definitely be described as "eloquent", and after the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat after signing the "Camp David Accords" with Israel in order to recover the Israeli-occupied Sinai Peninsula, the Arab world lost its most influential leader. It can be said that what Arabia needed most in the era of Lishitian was a leader, a leader who could unite hundreds of millions of Arabs.

The problem is, Saddam Hussein took the wrong step.

"Clearly, Saddam seriously underestimated the influence of Jews in the United States. Imagine a nation with a vague Senate seat, a rassy lawyer, a billionaire and a gill social wealth in the U.S. Congress, ignoring millions of its compatriots? Liu Xiaobin paused slightly and said. Former U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Dusler said that for American Jews, Israel's problems are not international but domestic. Since the establishment of the State of Israel, the United States has not slackened its strategic support. You must know that the Middle East War in the year of the foundation was the first time that the United States did its best with us on the battlefield, and in the Korean Peninsula War two years ago, the United States did not even fight with us. It can be said that Israel is the duty of American Jews and the responsibility of American politicians to protect Israel as far as the fifty-first state of the United States. In order to ensure Israel's security, the US authorities not only provide Israel with the most advanced weapons and equipment, and even covertly provide Israel with nuclear weapons technology, but will also spare no effort to strike at Arab countries and disintegrate the forces of Arab unity and unity. Of course, this is no different from controlling the world's oil depots, because the American energy companies have close ties with the Jews, and only by defeating the Arab countries and turning the Arab world into a mess can those Jewish businessmen and financial capitalists with American nationality have the ability to control the Middle East countries, and then the royal family or dictatorship of the Zhenjiang countries can control the Middle East

"That is, if we do nothing, the results will be the same as they were sixty years ago?"

When Yan Jingyu asked this question, Liu Xiaobin did not answer, because this is not a question that he can answer.

In fact, years ago, the authorities of the republic hesitated. Although there was no evidence at the time that Aunt Saada's dispatch of troops to Kuwait was related to the US intelligence agencies, and there was no way to deny the fact that Iraq had invaded Kuwait, the Republic still abstained from voting in the UN Security Council vote instead of voting in favour. In other words, the leaders of the republic knew at that time that the United States was going for Iraqi oil and the Arab countries that had reunited. It can even be said that the Gulf War was a retaliatory action by the Western countries with the United States against the "oil war" that led to the first post-war economic crisis in the Western world since the era of the century. You must know that just many years later, when the United States once again moved the Iraq War, which became the "second Gulf War," there were far fewer Western countries that responded to the "call," and France, a Western country that has been trying to get rid of the influence and control of the United States, even publicly condemned this. It can be said that at the beginning of the century, if the authorities of the Republic had been a little tougher on foreign policy and had voted a decisive veto in the Security Council, the United States would have had to go to the Gulf War alone, or even possibly the Gulf War. Of course, given the circumstances at that time, it was impossible for the Republic to vote a veto on the Security Council, because after all, it was Saddam Hussein, not Bush Sr., who started the war of aggression.

Faced with the same problem again, the leaders of the republic have a lot of options.

When Liu Xiaobin avoided this question, Pei Chengyi took over the topic and said: "The situation is very clear, the driving force behind this is Israel. And not the United States. Although there is intelligence that proves that the four were involved in the rebellion in Iraq and at least provided support for the Mossard, judging from the current situation, the US authorities will certainly not risk colliding with us again, otherwise they will not put Israel on the table.

"In my judgment, if we do not intervene and allow the situation to unfold, the Iraqi authorities will certainly take a crucial step. The question is, will the United States invite dozens of countries and send hundreds of thousands of troops to defeat Iraq, as it did 60 years ago? The answer to this question is obvious, it is not sixty years ago, and the countries of the Gulf region will not support the United States as much as they did sixty years ago. In other words, it is unlikely that the United States will send troops again, and after a diplomatic protest, it will accept a fait accompli. It can be said that this is the fundamental reason why the Iraqi authorities have no fear.

The question is, can we accept such an outcome?

"Iraq invaded Kuwait again, even if Kuwait is not richer than Iraq, and Kuwait's foreign policy is more inclined to us, and even many Kuwaitis have benefited from cooperation with Iraq, for example, the port we built on Bubiyan Island has created a lot of labor opportunities and social wealth for Kuwait, but no Arab country will accept the fact that Iraq has annexed Kuwait, especially the royal families of several relatively wealthy Arab countries, It will certainly feel threatened by Iraq and disappointed in our Middle East foreign policy. This would be a devastating blow to our Middle East strategy.

It can be said that this is the fundamental purpose of Israel's move. You must know that with the failure of our Middle East strategy, the Arab world will lose its most powerful support and become a mess again, so that Israel's strategic security can be guaranteed. In fact, what will become of the Arab world is not much of a laugh with us, and it is not something we should be concerned about. For us, the key question is how much will we pay if the Arab strategy fails, and will it have an impact on our global strategy? ”

After finishing speaking, Pei Chengyi paused slightly, and then said: "If we look at the long-term, we even have to consider the long-term impact on the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation." As early as more than 30 years ago, after we were involved in the Indo-Pakistani war, our basic strategy was set. In the face of the vast Pacific Ocean to the east, whether we take a small step or a big step, it will lead to an all-out war with the United States. Our only way out is to go westward, and for more than 30 years, we have achieved a lot of success in our westward expansion strategy, not only controlling the South Asian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean, but also successfully landing in Africa, and gaining a foothold in the Middle East. If we fall short at this time, the consequences will be unimaginable. ”

Yan Jingyu nodded slightly and said, "The key is, how serious will the consequences be after we intervene?" ”

Pei Chengyi looked at Liu Xiaobin and motioned for Liu Xiaobin to answer the question.

"The most direct way for us to intervene is to install a new regime in Iraq." Liu Xiaobin smiled bitterly and said, "There is no doubt that the intelligence agencies of Israel and the United States will take this possibility into account when planning this operation and prepare accordingly." It is not difficult to overthrow the current Iraqi government and prop up a new one, and in any case, almost all of the Iraqi government officials are trained by us, and the generals of the Iraqi army have close ties with us. The problem is that there is no way to prevent the consequences that will follow. ”

"What do you mean?"

"We have been able to enjoy the trust and support of many Arab countries, and in addition to the fact that we can provide more practical help, it is also related to our basic foreign policy, which is to meddle very little in the internal affairs of Arab countries, even in a country like Iraq, which has been built on the ruins, and we have been very restrained. The current Iraqi Government is democratically elected, and it is a legitimate Government recognized by many countries, and it is a Government that we support. If we overthrow the regime and prop up a new one just for the sake of speculation, or for the sake of something that has no success, I am afraid that not a single Arab country will support us. In fact, it is very likely that this is the secondary purpose pursued by the United States and Israel, which is to force us to intervene and tarnish our image, so as to achieve the strategic goal of dividing the Arab world and containing us. More importantly, we cannot wait for the Iraqi authorities to take action, because that would allow the United States and Israel to achieve their main objectives, and it would also be devastating to our Middle East strategy. ”

In other words, we are in a dilemma, and there is no better choicePei Chengyi added.

Liu Xiaobin nodded and didn't say anything more.

Seeing the two singing and harmonizing, Yan Jingyu frowned slightly and looked at Yuan Chenhao, who was sitting next to him.

"If possible, we have to avoid war as much as possible, at least for a few years." Pei Chengyi attracted Yan Jingyu's attention and said, "In fact, it is impossible for us to go to war with the United States because of this, and the American authorities have no intention of going to war with us." ”

"The problem is that any solution will bring us closer to war."

Hearing Yan Jingyu say this, Pei Chengyi sighed and didn't say anything more.

"Twenty years ago, Elder Wang said that the Middle East would become a powder keg that would lead to a world war." Yan Jingyu took a long breath, picked up the cigarette on the coffee table, and lit one each for Liu Xiaobin and Yuan Chenhao before saying, "You all have the highest right to be involved in secrets, so there are some things I don't need to say more, you can take the time to read the relevant information." In fact, over the years, we have been avoiding a world war because of conflicts in the Middle East. Although the situation around China has improved in an all-round way after the Indian War, our way out is still blocked by the United States, which is the US mainland across the Pacific Ocean in the east, Australia in the south, and Russia in the north. It can be said that there is basically no room for us to step in these three directions, or to lead to a full-scale war that will have a major impact on us, so we can only go west. The South Asian subcontinent can only be regarded as the base camp for westward expansion, and only the Middle East region can serve as a springboard for westward expansion. With our landing on the African continent and the establishment of a new order in East Africa with us at its core, there is a greater need to link our spheres of influence through the Middle East. It can be said that no matter how difficult it is, we will not back down. In the same way, Jews control the lifeblood of the United States, and whether other Americans are willing to fight for Israel or not, they will certainly not abandon Israel under the current American system. That is, our struggle with the United States in the Middle East will definitely not end in compromise

After listening to Yan Jingyu, Pei Chengyi sighed again and looked at Yuan Chenhao.

Obviously, what Yan Jingqian mentioned at the beginning was the fundamental reason for Pei Chengyi to prepare the war plan. The address of this site has been changed to: just a mouthful of yang... ８。 Please log in to the valve!

Just as Yan Jingyu said, with the ability of leaders such as Wang Yuanqing of Ji Youguo, it is impossible for them not to know that as the Republic moves from the region to the world, it will definitely fight to the death with the United States in the Middle East, and this will lead to an all-out war between the Republic and the United States. If you look at the geography of the Republic, there is no other choice, and if you bet on the Middle East, the probability of winning is much higher than if you bet on other regions. It is precisely in this way that many of the republic's foreign policies, and even foreign wars, have been related to the Middle East strategy for many years. In addition, after the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, the authorities of the Republic actively helped Pakistan and Bangladesh to develop their economies by establishing market communities, hoping to win the trust of the Islamic world, including many Arab countries, and prepare for the expansion into the Middle East region with the help of these two Islamic countries. In fact, in the Middle East war in prison years, Pakistan was the rear of the republican ** team.

Since the question of war is discussed, it is natural that there can be no ambiguity.

This time it was not Pei Chengyi who made a military introduction, but Yuan Chenhao. After becoming defense minister, Pei Chengyi rarely made military reports at the central government's work meetings, giving up the opportunity to others, taking the opportunity to let others know that his official status was a ministerial-level official of the State Council, not an army general. It is precisely because of this that Yuan Chenhao has made military reports to Yuan many times.

Compared with Pei Chengyi back then, Yuan Chenhao's situation is much superior.

In a sense, Yuan Chenhao's is much higher than Pei Chengyi. You must know that when Pei Chengyi came out, he was suppressed by the republican ** dignitaries, including Peng Maobang, and even if he was reused after the Peninsula War, he was suppressed again because of Wang Yuanqing's implementation of the third military reform.

It is the different experiences that make Yuan Chenhao have different personalities and thoughts.

Relatively speaking, Yuan Chenhao's performance is much stronger than Pei Chengyi.