After Scrooge finished his analysis of the origins of the crisis, both Rockefeller and Clark fell silent, and after a while, Rockefeller said:

"Scrooge, I don't know where the problem with your reasoning is, however, there is a problem. If you really want to take what you said, the vicious circle of economic crisis should be getting worse and worse, and after so long in human history, we should have ended in such a vicious circle a long time ago. ”

Scrooge smiled, this question, he asked the teacher when he was in junior high school in his last life, and now he can just take the answer directly.

"For most of history, human beings have produced goods not primarily in exchange for commodities, but in a self-sufficient way to meet their own living needs. In this day and age, most people are like Robinson, who didn't have to worry about not being able to sell his grain when he had a good harvest. Because he didn't intend to sell his grain in the first place. But modern times are different, and most of modern production is for exchange. Everything that is produced is a commodity, and the situation is naturally different. ”

"But in the modern era, we have already experienced many economic crises, so why is it that there is a recovery every time, instead of getting worse and worse in the cycle and finally ending up completely?" Apparently, Rockefeller was not convinced.

"That's because the economic crisis is not unsolvable. At least, for now, there are two ways to go about it. Scrooge smiled, he was waiting for the question.

"First of all, the vicious circle originates from within the system. The problem can be alleviated if new purchasing power can be gained from outside the system. This is the general principle, and then there are two specific approaches. The first way is to rely on God's help. Do you remember the economic crisis of 1847 and the discovery of gold in San Francisco in 1848? ”

"Well, I remember, the frenzy was that some ships had just docked in North America and couldn't leave again the next day, because more than half of the sailors were missing—they all went to San Francisco to pan for gold. I have seen several of these ships with my own eyes, and some of them have even run away from the captain after that. Remembering the story, Clark smiled.

"Well, this gold mine, and the one in Melbourne, are all shallow buried, and it's not difficult to pan for gold, and it's all in the Borderlands, anyone can come and pan for gold. A large number of people who had no spending power found gold here, and suddenly they had purchasing power again, and then the goods that could not be sold were able to be sold again. It's like God hired them and then paid them a good salary to help us solve the problem of lack of need. So the economic crisis of 1847 was naturally resolved. Scrooge laughed as well.

"Thank God!" Rockefeller reverently drew a cross on his chest.

"God bless America." Scrooge and Clark also hurriedly drew a cross.

"But what about this crisis? Do we still need to rely on God to give us another gold mine? After drawing the cross, Clark asked.

"God has given us a bigger gold mine." Scrooge said.

"Where?" Clark asked immediately, as if he wanted to run to pan for gold at once.

"For the world, the largest gold mine is in the East. For the United States, the largest gold mines are in the West and South. Scrooge said quietly.

"Can you be more explicit?" Rockefeller said, "I couldn't keep up with your thinking." ”

"Well, let's recap, from the 15th century onwards, Europeans obtained untold amounts of gold and silver from the Americas through guò colonization. Can any of you tell me where the gold and silver have gone? ”

Clark thought for a moment and said, "You mean all this gold and silver went to the East?" Well, yes, through the guò silk and porcelain and tea trade, China alone does not know how much gold and silver it has obtained from the West. I understand that now they have gold in their hands, and if they can sell them the surplus goods that cannot be sold, they can solve the problem temporarily. ”

"Not bad!" Scrooge nodded appreciatively, "But the Orientals are not stupid, and of course they know what the consequences will be if European goods are allowed to flow into the country." The workshops of their handicrafts are completely incapable of competing with modern industry, and it is almost certain that they will go out of business. Craftsmen are unemployed. Well, the consequences. The collapse of the textile industry in Kolkata, India, at the end of the last century is a ready-made example. Of the 150,000 textile craftsmen in Calcutta, 110,000 died of starvation, in the words of the British themselves, 'the bones of the weavers turned the whole plain of India white'. Second, it is unlikely that the West will allow these Eastern countries to continue to maintain their self-sufficient natural economies. Because such an economic model means that they don't need to buy anything from outside. In order to be able to sell their goods, it was necessary to destroy their natural economy. And this can only be done by violence. In the last century, the British destroyed India, they ruled it directly, and violently broke the natural economy of the Indians, making India a source of raw materials and a market for goods sold by the British. By monopolizing such a large market with a population of hundreds of millions, Britain has grown into a world hegemon. Of course, the economic crisis has not been eliminated, it has only been passed on to India. Anyway, it's the Indians who are unlucky. Well, in 1770, the Great Famine of Bengal starved 10 million people to death at one time. ”

"Oh God! It's horrible! Rockefeller drew another cross on his chest, then let out a sigh and said, "It's good that the evil heretics are starving to death." ”

"Not long ago, the newspapers mentioned that the British also had some conflicts with China in the East." "Now that there is a crisis like this, I am sure that it will not be long before Britain will launch a new war against China in order to further open up the Chinese market," Scrooge said. ”

"But isn't this a crisis in the United States? What's the matter with the UK? Rockefeller asked.

"Over the years, we have been building railways, but where are most of the steel we use to build railways, and where are most of the trains running on our railways? Is it made in the USA by us? Once our economy is in trouble, we don't have the money to build new railways, we don't have the money to buy new trains, which means less demand in the UK. In this way, the crisis of the United States will also become the crisis of the United Kingdom. Scrooge replied, "In order to get out of the crisis, Britain had to expand eastward." ”

"What about us in the United States? We don't have the sea power that Britain has to expand to the East. What can we do? ”

"We can expand westward, where there are large tracts of land, and there is always a demand for the development of that land. Also, we have the South. Scrooge said his voice was a little chilly when he spoke of the South.

Later conscience-filled history books often interpret the Civil War as a just war to free black slaves. But after traveling to this era, after a certain amount of research on the economy of this era, Scrooge was sure that the so-called emancipation of black slaves was nothing more than a high-sounding excuse. The capitalists of the north are no more noble than the slave owners of the south, so they don't care whether the live or die. If they had been that merciful, they would not have allowed the working conditions of the workers in their factories to be even worse than those of the black slaves on the southern plantations. Just as Marx said, capitalists will take risks when they have 50 percent profits, dare to trample on the laws of the world when they have 100 percent profits, and dare to risk going to the gallows if they have 300 percent profits. To understand their behavior, it is necessary and can only be considered in terms of how to make a profit.

The slave owners of the American South were also capitalists, and unlike the medieval manor owners, their economic model was not a subsistence manor, but a market-oriented commercial agriculture. However, their interests did not coincide with those of the northern capitalists. For them, if European tariffs can be kept low, then they will be more profitable to buy agricultural products - grain, cotton, and so on - to Europe than to sell them to the North. Therefore, the United States under the Democratic rule of the Virginia dynasty has always opened its doors to European industrial goods in exchange for Europe's open market for American agricultural products. Of course, this will make the plantation owners in the south make a lot of money, but it will come at the expense of the north. In a sense, the interests of the planters in the American South were more aligned with those of the British, who were economic vassals of the British.

For the North, the use of tariffs to protect its industry, especially manufacturing, is the most common way for a country that is just starting out in industry. Originally, the demand brought by the expansion to the west should be able to feed the manufacturing industry in the north, but with this group of southern leading party that has long controlled the federal government, the manufacturing industry in the north is completely underfed under the pressure of Europe's big industry. In order for the industry in the north, especially the manufacturing industry, to develop, take off, and make money, it is necessary to defeat these leading parties. In this sense, it is not for nothing that some people call the Civil War America's Second War of Independence.

"The United States, relying on the whole of the North American continent, always has to find a way to find new demand, but to protect industry, which alone can provide enough employment for so many immigrants each year, it is necessary to raise tariffs and drive out European industrial goods, which is in conflict with the interests of the South. Machiavelli once said: 'Depriving someone of their money is even more hateful than killing someone's parents.' 'Now, if the North wants to be rich, it must raise its tariffs, and that would have to be at the expense of the South; And if the South wants to get rich, it must keep tariffs low, which will have to be at the expense of the North. Such problems could not be solved by negotiations, he could only solve them by war. I dare say that it won't be long before a civil war breaks out in the United States. Scrooge said firmly.

Rockefeller opened his mouth as if he wanted to say something, however, he didn't say anything in the end. Instead, Clark came up with something like, "Scrooge, you really deserve to be president." ”