Chapter 261: Debt
[Is this girl really your twin?] ]
[Is this important?] When did your substitute group ask for so much? The hero doesn't ask where he comes from, isn't he just a substitute teacher, and he doesn't need to be discovered by the teacher]
[It's also a roar, what you said makes sense, but she's outside the school, can the level be guaranteed, after all, some professional courses are still quite difficult]
[Don't worry, her academic performance is not below me, just because I was lucky, and I was drawn to the keyboard application major]
[Then I'll be relieved, guaranteed to have business]
After Chen Bo's nonsense and the guarantee of his conscience, he finally dispelled the concerns of the substitute group leader.
"Why do I feel that it is better to directly send the money away and dig a hole for myself." Chen Bo's thoughts drifted away in the repeated entanglement.
"If you don't do well in class, you will mortgage someone, she is so smart, she must not worry about no one chasing her." Wang Xu handed over a can of Coke, and the two pulled the rings and clinked glasses, and the sound of carbon dioxide impact echoed in the classroom.
This scene was seen by the teacher on the podium, and he pointed out unceremoniously: "Those two classmates in the middle and back rows, I have been paying attention to you for a long time, don't drink so much." β
"Okay hiccupββββ"
Chen Bo originally just wanted to obediently answer and admit his cowardice, but he didn't expect his stomach to be angry, and this time he burst into laughter.
After half a minute of noise, the classroom resumed, this is an economics class, and the main introduction to the debt history of the lighthouse nation.
Throughout the history of the world's development, the existence of debt has stimulated greater production potential, and for any modern person, almost all his life is closely related to debt, from housing and car loans to installment payments, all of which are overdrafts of future spending power and early enjoyment.
At the time of the Beacon Nation's independence, the huge debts incurred by the war had to be repaid through the large-scale issuance of national bonds, and the long-term stable and reputable investment targets were in the interests of the big capitalists and brought together the people scattered in the thirteen states.
Once upon a time, the lighthouse country also wanted to limit the scale of debt, under the gold standard operating mechanism, the scale of paper money issuance was restricted by gold, but the industrial revolution brought about the expansion of productivity is beyond the reach of human beings in any previous period, due to the lack of currency in circulation, often accompanied by deflation.
This phenomenon came to an end after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, and since then, paper money can be circulated and used in the market only with official credit endorsement, and the degree of internationalization of paper money also depends on the degree of official recognition of investors behind it.
The teacher showed several pictures of the national debt scale of different governments in the same period, and also listed the lighthouse countries separately, and measured the speed of the expansion of the debt scale of the lighthouse countries with the timeline as the standard.
"We can clearly see that in the era of the gold standard, the scale of debt in various regions was less than 20% of GDP, and after entering the credit currency, this proportion has swelled dramatically, and some have even increased to 150% or 200%."
"The inherent flaw of capitalism is such that their debt is bound to grow dramatically over the course of the economic cycle, and each recession marks another redistribution of finances, with the rich getting richer and the poor needing government handouts to get by, and so on."
"After 2030, the yield on lighthouse government bonds will only be 0.1%."
When Chen Bo saw this figure, he originally thought that 0.4% of domestic demand deposits was outrageous enough, but he didn't expect that there was a seed player outside waving less than 0.2% of long-term notes.
Wang Xu said with emotion: "If you look at the scale of the lighthouse country's debt, it was less than 1 trillion in the 80s of the last century, when the interest rate was 9.75%, and it became lower and lower, from 6.5% to 4% to 2% and finally to 0.1% close to no interest, and its debt scale has increased by 90 times." β
"Yes, if the interest rate is raised, I'm afraid I can't even pay the interest, at least this hand is a good game, the scale of the debt has expanded by 5 times in ten years, the interest rate has been reduced by 80%, and the annual interest expense has been saved."
After all, it is a democratically elected system, and there is never a need to think about what will happen in four years, as for how to repay those 10-year and 20-year national bonds when they expire, and then issue new covers.
Lighthouse countries' national bonds also have the ability to regulate the flow of dollars around the world, harvesting emerging markets around the world by raising or decreasing interest rates to drive dollar outflows and inflows when they were previously small.
In the 70s of the 20th century, the lighthouse countries fell into stagflation, capital outflow, industrial chain transfer, East Asia's four tigers economic prosperity, the lighthouse countries were at a disadvantage in the hegemony of the United States and the Soviet Union, decadent for more than ten years, announced to raise the interest rate of government bonds by 2%, immediately sucked up the dollar in emerging markets, resulting in foreign exchange outflow from most countries.
Ten years of prosperity are like nothing, seeing that countries are in depression, and the lighthouse country comes as a savior, harvesting high-quality cheap assets with the dollars spit out by the money printing machine, and letting the other party work for more than ten years in vain.
Someone once said: "The lighthouse nation is like a vulture, staring at the carrion in the desert, at the slightest movement, they will come to hear it, and eat it, they do not produce value in themselves, they are indisputable destroyers." β
This trick became more and more difficult to use in the future, due to the expansion of the scale of debt, the increase in interest rates brought about expenses that are difficult for fiscal revenues to bear, and the loss of this killer weapon will give the lighthouse country one less weapon to curb the emerging powers.
But this does not mean that the former world hegemon is helpless, as long as it is thick-skinned enough, there will always be a steady stream of wealth pouring into itself, diluting its debts through over-issued dollars, and using the status of the world currency to transfer inflation to other regions in disguise.
"From the perspective of corporate governance, the Lighthouse State is undoubtedly a successful model, it is almost a perfect interpretation of the growth, maturity and decline of a company, and it is not so much a country as a company formed by a complex coalition of interests, and all parties have ganged up on the board of directors to try to get their proposals to pass resolutions, so as to seek greater interests for the interests they represent." The teacher talked about the textbook slowly, and the courseware displayed by the projection did not turn the page.
"We know that the new is born out of the old, and this process will inevitably go through brutal struggles and tests, and I will explain how the hegemony of the dollar has gradually declined until it is replaced."
"Dididi~"
"What's the situation? The group owner is looking for me? Chen Bo put the phone in the drawer and glanced at it carefully.
[Your twin isn't very good]
[What's the situation?] ]
[I was accosted by someone else in my last painting class, and I was beaten by the main one]
[This can also be teased, my God]
[Won't you come and see it?] I'm in the classroom next door, it's so lively.]
[Let's get out of class first, give a place]