As mentioned in the previous chapter, the difficulty coefficient for Chinese teenagers with football talent to become professional football players is 50, while the difficulty coefficient for young people with football talent in European and American countries to become professional football players is basically around 1 or even below 1. What does it really mean?

It can be said that the smaller the 'difficulty coefficient' of a country's football circle, the easier it is for young people with football talent to enter the football market in the football market economy, and the more courageous they are to enter the football market. And the greater the 'difficulty coefficient' of a country's football circle, the less likely it is for young people with football talent to enter the football market, and the less courage they have to enter the football market.

When the 'difficulty coefficient' of China's football circle reaches 50, this will lead to a complete and serious distortion of China's football market, and then lead to the entire development of China's football to be completely and seriously distorted, which is also the most critical reason why Chinese football has been getting worse and worse for decades.

You may say, isn't it just that the supply-demand ratio is too big, what's the big deal about this, the supply-demand ratio of China's civil servants is even bigger than this, often thousands of people compete for a position, but this does not affect the quality of China's civil service system, and it does not prevent China's comprehensive national strength from continuing to improve at a high speed.

Football is different from taking the civil service exam, the people who take the civil service exam have already experienced many years of education in different schools, even if you can't get the civil service exam, you can still engage in other jobs, you can't get the civil service exam, you don't lose anything, you just can't get better.

But football and basketball and other sports are completely different, in the modern industrial civilization society, but also the market economy dominates the situation, the development of football, basically all rely on the market economy model, the football associations of various countries do things, but also try to make the development of football into the track of the market economy.

The Chinese Football Association is also learning from European football powers, developing the football market economy, and learning is still very good, if the learning is not so good, then Chinese football can not be so degenerate, precisely because the study of Europe is too good, Chinese football has also fallen into the abyss.

The market economy development model of football is based on the European football powers, this model is to promote football to the whole society, spare no effort to promote football through various media methods, and strive to make all young people can contact football, this way is mainly to develop campus football and community football, and open a variety of football schools, and then, from the youth who have been in contact with football, through the selection of the best layer by layer, By getting these best players into the youth echelon of the professional leagues, we will ensure that the professional leagues will have a fresh infusion of blood every year, and that the country's football will remain young forever.

Isn't this the right model, you may ask? Could there be a better model than this? Is there anything wrong with making football available to all young people, and then selecting the best from all the youngsters?

This model is the most suitable for a country or region with a population of 50 million, and the larger or smaller the population of a country or region is from the number of 50 million, it will be more and more difficult to rely on a league system to develop football.

Let's look at Brazil, Brazil has a population of 210 million, and it is the only country with a population of more than 100 million among the world's top football powers, but why is Brazil's football strength still so strong? Why is it that Brazil is not affected by the fact that the more populous it is, the more difficult it is for football to develop?

This is because Brazil is not a simple professional league system, people who are familiar with Brazilian football know that Brazil has a very peculiar national league and state league system, Brazil's Sao Paulo state, there are as many as four football leagues, and 80 teams, and Brazil, there are more than 300 professional teams, so the demand for professional players in Brazil is much greater than that of Germany, France, England, Italy, Spain, Greece, Argentina and Portugal.

The author will have an in-depth discussion of the football league system in Brazil in a later article.

Moving on to the comparison between taking the civil service exam and entering the professional football arena, as I just said, even if you can't get the civil service exam, you can still do other jobs, and if you can't get the civil service exam, you don't lose anything, you just can't get better.

But sports such as football and basketball, it's different, sports such as football and basketball, both require a child to devote himself wholeheartedly to training from an early age, and it also costs a lot of money, if you spend so much and you can't become a professional player, then you will lose a lot of money, and you will also lose a good opportunity to receive cultural education in school.

Modern football is already a very mature market economy, for a child with football talent, if he wants to grow up to enter professional football, if he and his family really put it into practice, then, for him and his family, this is equivalent to an 'investment', this is an 'investment behavior', investment is to spend money, football and basketball are civilian sports, it also needs to spend money, and it also takes energy.

If a family spends a lot of energy and financial resources to nurture their children, in the end, the child has a maximum of only a 1 in 50 probability of entering the professional football league, does the family dare to train their children on the road to football? With a return rate of less than 2% on investment, what family would dare to make up their minds?

The vast majority of families do not dare, and it is right not to dare, and it is rational economic behavior not to dare. If you don't see any hope of return, you can't make up your mind. Only wealthy families can take a gamble, which is what is often said - in China, only the children of rich families dare to enter the professional football industry. In fact, there are also ordinary children who have entered the professional football industry, but they will pay too much.

At this time, we have to use game theory to elaborate: the development of football in industrial civilization society is a relatively perfect market economy model, this model is open to all young people in the whole country, the country has established a football league system, the number of professional teams is certain, so the demand for professional players is also certain, so what about the supply of professional players?

Since the market economy of football is a completely open model for all young people, then, the better a country or region promotes football and the better the economic development, then it is equivalent to including all young people and their families into the scope of the football market economy, that is to say, any teenager with football talent, he can 'go' to professional football to try his ability, this 'can go', is a game behavior.

In this game, any teenager with football talent will think: "Should I become a professional footballer?" Should I go to professional football? Should I try my talent in the professional soccer league? ”

Of course, in the current China, the vast majority of young people with football talent have given up on thinking: "Forget it, Chinese football is getting more and more degenerate...... Chinese football is extremely dark...... There is no future for Chinese football...... Civilian children taking the road of football are simply looking for death...... The children of rich families are also looking for death when they take the road of football...... The most important thing is that there are so many people in China, so many people who can play football, but the professional league is only so much in demand, and if I apply for a player position, I have to compete with so many potential opponents, who knows if I can apply for it? …… So, let's give up......"

In the football market economy, gambling is ubiquitous, because the training of players is a very long process, so a teenager and his family, for the teenager should take the road of professional football, is also a ' The result of thinking is that the vast majority of young people with football talent in China will choose to give up the road of professional football, because taking the road of professional football is an investment behavior, a gambling behavior, and Chinese teenagers and their families cannot afford to gamble.

For a country's football circle, there are five main aspects to participate in the football market economic game - the national government system, the national football association system, wealthy investors, thousands of families, and young people with football talent, among them, the last two aspects - families and young people, they are the most basic components of the football market, if a country or region, young people with football talent and their families can not afford to gamble on the road to professional football, then, the country does not have any conditions for the development of footballAnd those young people and their families who have the conditions and courage to enter the football market cannot support the football industry in this country or region, which determines that the football in this country or region will fall into the abyss step by step, and it is in this way that Chinese football has weakened to the present.

In fact, don't say that Chinese football-talented teenagers and their families can't afford to gamble, in the face of the current situation of Chinese football, young people and their families all over the world can't afford to gamble, if - just say, Brazil also has a population of 1.4 billion, but there are only more than 40 professional football teams in Brazil, and only about 1400 professional players, then, in this case, Brazilian teenagers and their families still dare to take the road of professional football?

The answer is - the same dare.

Raising a child to become a professional player is an economic behavior, an investment behavior, and even a gambling behavior, unless a child's family can see such a hope - 'My child's football talent is very good, if he wants to follow the path of professional football, then he can basically become a professional player, even if he can't be a superstar, even if he can't play in the top league, he can at least play in the second division, the third division, and even the D division, in short, Once my child chooses to take the road of professional football, then his future can at least be guaranteed enough, not after more than ten years of hard work, and in the end he can't even play in the C League. ’

For such a mentality, some people may say - 'Your requirements are too high, even if your child has football talent, then a country's football league system must protect his future?' The future is earned by yourself! Your demands are too high! ’

But in fact, the psychological demands of parents for the future of their children must be guaranteed are very reasonable and correct, and a country's football circle must also provide future protection to meet the psychological demands of parents, only in this way can a country's football really develop.

A country's football circle, of course, can not ensure that everyone can enter the professional football arena, but a country's football circle, must ensure that the 20,000 percent of the population with football talent can enter the professional football arena, we don't think this is a country's football circle, in fact, football powers can do this, the author has mentioned this many times in previous articles.

For example, Brazil and Argentina, Brazil and Argentina are suitable for professional football, the number of people suitable for professional football is 10,500 and 2,200 respectively, while the domestic professional leagues of Brazil and Argentina can provide 9,000 and 2,300 professional player jobs respectively, Germany, France, Italy, England, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal, Uruguay, Colombia, Croatia, Denmark, etc., they can also do this.

Of course, many countries can do this, not because of how good their football associations are, not because of how serious and responsible the football associations of these countries are, not because of how well their countries develop, but just because, the population of these countries is just not so much, Argentina is good because it only has a population of 44 million, if Argentina has a population of 440 million, then, according to the current morality of the Argentine Football Association, Argentina's football strength will definitely be weaker than China.