Volume 1: Theory Chapter 6: How Difficult It Takes to Become a Professional Player
How difficult will it be for football-talented teenagers in different countries to become professional footballers? This article only discusses men's football, and if the reader wants to know how easy it is for a girl with a talent for football to become a professional football player, then the author can write a separate article to discuss it.
We can use a formula to describe the difficulty of young people with football talent in different countries to become professional football players, and this formula can be regarded as the author's 'patented invention':
n=qs(g/x)
Among them, N is 'the difficulty coefficient for young people with football talent in different countries to become professional football players', Q is 'the coefficient of people's love for football in different countries', S is 'the degree of social development in different countries', G is 'how many people are suitable for professional football in different countries', and X is 'how many professional players are needed in professional football leagues in different countries'.
First of all, the difficulty coefficient n, it stands to reason that in the era of higher industrial civilization, a country should develop to the extent that everyone can do their best, and a country should develop to the extent that everyone can easily and conveniently engage in their favorite occupation, which is called the era of higher industrial civilization.
For example, in the football industry, all the people who like to play football and are good at playing football in a country can easily and conveniently enter the professional football industry to work, and the same is true for other industries, which is the era of higher industrial civilization.
In the era of advanced industrial civilization where everyone can do their best, and everyone can easily engage in their favorite industries, the difficulty coefficient for young people with football talent in this country to become professional football players, that is, 1, that is, in the most ideal state, that is, all talented and talented football geniuses can enter the football professional league as professional players when they grow up. There are no mediocre people entering this industry, which is the most ideal and standard state.
Of course, even if the level of social development of a country does not reach the era of advanced industrial civilization, the difficulty coefficient of talented young people in this country to engage in professional football will reach 1, or even lower than 1, what is the concept of less than 1, that is, not to mention young people who are talented in football, even young people who are not talented in football, can easily and conveniently enter the professional football league to play.
So which countries meet the above conditions? The answer is - this is the case in Uruguay, Paraguay, Croatia, Serbia, Denmark, Norway, and even Portugal, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Greece.
What do these countries have in common? The answer is - there are fewer people. Yes, these countries, the population is relatively small, Uruguay only has more than 3 million people, Croatia has only more than 4 million people, although there are only three or four million people, Uruguay Football League A has 16 teams, Croatian Football League has 10 teams, and they also have B and C leagues, and Uruguay and Croatian players can also go abroad to pan for gold, therefore, Uruguay and Croatia all over the country, at least 600 professional football players, However, Uruguay only have more than 160 players best suited to play in the professional league, and Croatia has only 220 players best suited to play in the professional football league.
Therefore, Uruguay and Croatia are more thorough in cultivating football talents than Brazil, Argentina, Germany, England, France, Spain and other populous countries, which is the advantage of a small population.
Let's talk about the indicator Q, in the formula I set, Q is the coefficient of people's love for football in different countries, in other words, Q refers to the public interest and mass base, I set the maximum value of Q as 1, of course, it does not mean that a country must have everyone completely and absolutely obsessed with football, the value of Q can be 1, for a country, as long as the majority of the population (not less than 70%) favorite sport is football, for this country, The value of q, which is the coefficient of the country's people's love for football, can be 1.
Needless to say, the vast majority of countries in Europe and Latin America, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia, Mexico, Costa Rica, Germany, Italy, France, England, Spain, the Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Croatia, Romania, Poland, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Russia, Greece, Turkey, ...... For these countries, their people's love for football is a full value of 1.
In other parts of the world, such as Africa, West Asia, and East Asia, people's love for football, if not up to 1, is mostly close to 1. Several countries in East Asia are special, but in general, the number one sport in China, South Korea and North Korea is football, and the coefficient of love for football among the people of China, North Korea and South Korea can barely be considered 1.
Although the strength of Chinese football is miserable, but the Chinese people's love coefficient for football, compared with Europe and South America, is actually more than that, in the case of extremely sluggish football strength, China's football market can still rank first in the world, which is enough to show the Chinese's love for football. As for Japan, Japanese baseball can compete with football for the title of Japan's number one sport, so the Q value of Japanese football, I estimate it to be 0.7.
In the United States, rugby is the number one sport, in addition to baseball, which is loved by the American people, and basketball, which is often mistaken for the number one sport in the United States, and ice hockey, which was once more popular than basketball, and there are other popular sports in the United States, so the Q value of American football - that is, people's love for football, I think, give it a value of 0.05, It's already overrated.
As for the 'football vacuum' India, the Q value of Indian football may not even be 0.01, Indians only like to play cricket, even if they play cricket, not too many people are involved in it, let alone football. The extent to which people in other countries around the world love football is beyond the scope of this article.
Next, let's talk about the indicator of s, s is the degree of social development of different countries, football, is the product of the industrial revolution, is a sign of the industrial age, the more developed a country's industrialization, the more thorough the country's football development, therefore, as of 2020, the center of gravity of world football has always been Europe and South America, which extends from Europe, even Asia, Africa and North America, its football development and football career are also revolving around Europe.
S this indicator - that is, the degree of social development of different countries, its maximum value, is also 1, of course, I think, as long as the society develops to a certain extent, a country's football potential can reach the maximum, in other words, although Western Europe is much more developed than South America, but Western Europe and South America in terms of social development, in fact, the same level.
It can also be said that South America, it can be a reference, as long as a country or region develops to the extent of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile, then, the degree of social development, especially the economic strength, for the football industry of this country and region, can already be regarded as a full score, above the full score, it is still a full score, England and Germany are socially developed, in the face of Brazilian football and Argentine football, the real strength of English football and German football is weaker than Brazil and Argentina.
Since countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile all have an S-value of 1 in football, what is China's S-value in football? I think that when history develops to 2020, China's social development and economic strength are enough to ensure that the value of s reaches 1, because China's per capita income has surpassed Brazil and is at the same level as Argentina, and the actual quality of life, China is much higher than Argentina, China is already a veritable world factory in terms of industrial development, football, is a symbol of the industrial age, is the sport of the working class, as the world's factory, China in the social foundation of football development, It definitely has the capital to compete with South American countries.
In general, when the history of the world progressed to 2020, countries or regions with a per capita GDP of more than 10,000 US dollars were already fully scored if they wanted to develop football.
The S value of American football is also a full score, the United States is just a relatively low Q value, that is, people's love for football is relatively low, Americans like football, baseball, basketball and ice hockey, but in terms of football talent, the American people are no different from other people in the world, if the United States suddenly announces the ban on football, baseball, basketball and ice hockey, and the whole people switch to football, then the United States also has the absolute strength to become a new football power, but the premise is, Arrange enough professional players for people who are fit to play.
As for India, its degree of social development is relatively low, and its economic strength and social state are not enough to maintain a scale of football strength suitable for its population, the S value of Indian society in football development is only 0.1, and maybe 0.1 is extremely overestimated, combined with the Indian people's love for football, it can be found that although India has a nominal population of 1.3 billion, it is only 1.3 million people relative to football. Although the United States has 330 million people, it has only 16.5 million people relative to football, while China, relative to football, still has 1.4 billion people.
Finally, let's look at the two indicators of g and x, which are respectively the supply and demand of players in a country's professional football league, the supply of players is actually how many people in a country are suitable for playing professional football, and the demand for players is how many professional players are needed in a country's professional football league, in the previous chapter, the author has already calculated:
Argentina needs 2,300 professional players in the domestic arena, and Argentina has 2,200 of the best players to play;
Brazil's domestic league needs 9,000 professional players, and Brazil has 10,500 of the best players to play;
England's domestic league needs 2,800 professional players, and England has 2,600 of the best players to play;
Spain's domestic league needs 2,500 professional players, and Spain has 2,500 of the best players to play;
The chapter also mentions that Uruguay and Croatia need about 600 professional players in the domestic leagues, with 160 and 220 best suited players for Uruguay and Croatia;
China's domestic league only needs 1,400 professional players, but China has 70,000 of the best professional footballers.
Then, using the formula n=qs(g/x) to calculate, we can find that Argentina, Brazil, England and Spain have a football talent, their difficulty coefficient to enter professional football is about 1, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands is about 1, Japan and South Korea are more difficult, but not more than 2.
The football geniuses of Croatia and Uruguay, the difficulty coefficient of their entry into professional football is less than 0.4, and the difficulty coefficient of Portugal, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Greece, the Czech Republic and other small and medium-sized countries, the difficulty coefficient of their domestic football geniuses entering professional football is not more than 0.8, and the difficulty coefficient is less than 0.8 countries, which basically means that as long as you have a little football expertise, you can be matched by professional teams.
However, the difficulty coefficient for young people with football talent in China to enter professional football is 50 that can scare off all football talents.