Chapter 128: The Fermi Paradox
"The controllable nuclear fusion demonstration reactor project led by China and jointly carried out by many countries such as the United States, under the leadership of Chief Engineer Lu Yilu, successfully completed the ignition power generation test today, with an energy conversion efficiency of up to 41.6 percent, far exceeding that of ordinary thermal power stations and conventional fission reactors.
In this project, we have completed a breakthrough in superconducting materials, a breakthrough in the first inner wall material, and a ...... in lithium neutron recovery."
In the evening, the world's most-watched news broadcast, a special report on today's demonstration pile ignition test was given for more than 5 minutes, and major media in other countries also began to publish special reports.
Under the crazy propaganda resources, not only did the news of the official breakthrough of controllable nuclear fusion spread all over the world, but Lu Yi's personal reputation also completed the leap from domestic to global communication.
The scene of closing your eyes and pressing the start button, and the serious and handsome side face also made countless young ladies feel empty.
If you are not afraid that others are handsome, you are afraid that others are more handsome than you, and at the same time, they are richer and more talented than you, and your achievements will also beat you ten streets.
"The scarf is blown up! What a broken server! ”
Zhou Ying was not in the laboratory tonight, and Li Yashan gathered in the living room to watch the news broadcast and brush her neck.
Within two minutes of the news broadcast controllable nuclear fusion news, the shaking M girl who was happily brushing the scarf suddenly found that the scarf interface could not be loaded, and the server exploded!
As one of the protagonists, Zhang Qing, who couldn't even move her mobile phone by various private messages and Aitka, had no choice but to put down her mobile phone and glanced at Li Yashan and Lin Meng, and several people looked at Lu Yi who was leaning on the balcony and contemplating.
Zhang Qing walked to the balcony and said, "Dean Wang just called and asked when the announcement press conference was about, so they could prepare in advance." ”
"Three days later, the demonstration reactor is being adjusted in the past two days, and it is determined that the design power is reached before the commercial application is officially announced."
Lu Yi shook his head, although the deuterium tritium element in today's test is not at the mg level, it only uses 5G for experimental ignition power generation.
Over the next two days, the reactor will be adjusted and the energy density of fusion will be gradually increased until the designed power of 32,000MW will be considered a formal success.
"Still thinking about the earth's heat dissipation?"
Zhang Qing quietly gestured with Li Yashan and Lin Meng, signaled that there was no problem, and then continued to ask.
Seeing Zhang Qing's gesture, Li Yashan and Lin Meng also walked out, and just now they saw Lu Yi on the balcony thinking that today's incident had caused an emotional impact, so there was a situation where Zhang Qing came out first to ask.
After all, when it comes to the issue of heat dissipation on the earth, only she who has studied the heat dissipation of the space station can talk to Lu Yi about it.
"Nope."
Lu Yi glanced at Li Yashan and said with a smile: "I'm thinking about the paradox that Fermi put forward in the 50s. ”
"The alien one...... Where are they? ”
Li Yashan asked, those who study physics will have a certain understanding of this famous paradox.
"yes, I've been thinking that they don't exist, but that all but a few lucky ones are trapped on the planet.
But at the time, I was only thinking about energy, because it was a problem that could trap most civilizations on the planet. ”
Lu Yi sighed with emotion, stretched out his hand and analyzed: "The energy that civilization can use is divided from the physical level, the chemical energy that changes the structure at the molecular level, the nuclear energy that changes the structure at the atomic level, and the material disintegration that is still in the fantasy of breaking hadrons, or a higher level of space-time energy.
The chemical energy mass efficiency is too low, the propellant mass and payload mass ratio is too poor, it can be used as a low-altitude spaceflight, deep space navigation or interstellar navigation.
In the case of nuclear energy, fission is simple, but the scarcity of fissile elements and the danger of spontaneous chain reactions beyond the mass limit also make fission energy unsuitable for space navigation.
Not to mention the disintegration of matter and space-time energy, so the only thing that can make civilization free from the shackles of the planet and go to the stars is nuclear fusion.
The content of fusion elements in the universe is extremely high, and it is easy to store and purify, and the mass and energy efficiency is also higher than that of fission heavy elements.
But we also know how difficult the problems and problems involved in controlled nuclear fusion are, and to be honest, if the plasma turbulence model does not break through and the control scheme cannot be optimized, it will not be possible to break through even in hundreds of years.
Because the consumption of maintaining the magnetic field of magnetic confinement will be exponentially increased, the energy efficiency will not work in the first place, the superconducting material of the coil also needs to be better, and the biggest difficulty of the first inner wall material will not be the resistance to neutron irradiation, but the most terrifying problem of high temperature resistance and plasma irradiation resistance is the first inner wall.
Without an optimized control scheme, the plasma and the confined magnetic field will not fit well, and there will be fierce collisions and conflicts all the time.
In this way, at the energy density of the demonstration reactor, the devil knows how many ultra-high temperature plasmas are discretized from the magnetic field.
And this is a purely theoretical problem, if you don't think of the detection idea, without a strong mathematician, then this problem can never be solved.
Fortunately, our Professor Lin is very good at using a mathematical model to summarize the chaotic data of plasma, otherwise everyone would still be burning money in the laboratory. ”
Everyone looked at Professor Lin, Lu Yi rarely praised a person in public like this, after all, women are vinegar jars......
"But right now, I think energy technology is a big barrier, but what is more dangerous and most likely to bury civilization in the interior of the planet is the thermal pollution crisis behind the breakthrough in energy technology.
You may not be able to understand what I felt when I saw the simulated data in the afternoon, full of fear, full of luck, and even more happy about the fate of mankind. ”
Lu Yi ignored everyone's thoughts, there was still some palpitation in his eyes, and then said: "This simulation is based on the data that the total human power has increased by 20 times after the breakthrough of controlled nuclear fusion.
A 20-fold increase in power can make mankind fall into the end in 23 years, but in fact, in about 17 years, the change of the earth's ecological environment will be irreversible, and human beings will be struggling after 17 years.
I have higher authority than you, and after discovering a possible potential thermal pollution crisis in the past few days, I have asked the above about the strategic plan after the breakthrough of controlled nuclear fusion, and guess what I found? ”
"The total amount of energy involved in the plan is huge?" Zhang Qing saw the palpitation in Lu Yi's eyes, and seemed to have guessed something.
"It's not very big, it's very big, it's even terrifying!"
Lu Yi said with a wry smile: "Relying on the almost inexhaustible energy of controlled nuclear fusion, the above plans to restart all the projects that have been stuck due to resource problems over the years, or cut down because of huge costs."
The people's livelihood, the military, and scientific research are in full bloom, and in particular, the planned investment in scientific research can put the people's livelihood and the military on top of each other, and it seems that the strategy of rejuvenating the country through scientific research is truly deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.
I can't tell you the specific details, but I'll just say a statistic, after the breakthrough of controlled nuclear fusion, in order to meet the needs of the strategic plan, it is planned to build 180 controllable nuclear fusion reactors with a power of 63,000MW in the country within 3 years, and the number of this reactor will reach 400 within 5 years. ”
"Is it crazy up there?"
Zhang Qing, Li Yashan, Lin Meng and others, who understood what this data meant, all widened their eyes.
You must know that the total electricity consumption of Guangdong Province in 2017 was only 595.897 billion kilowatt hours, ranking first among domestic provinces, but it is such a terrible power consumption, a controllable nuclear fusion reactor with a power of 63,000MW is almost the same.
At present, the nuclear fusion reactor of this power level wants to be built and put into use with 180 units in three years and 400 reactors in five years.
In this way, based on the country's total electricity consumption of 6.3 trillion kilowatt hours in 2017, once this plan is implemented, it means that China's total electricity consumption will exceed 36 times in five years.
Removing the application of controlled nuclear fusion reduces petroleum energy consumption, which is conservatively estimated to be 28 times, and such a plan is no longer enough to describe madness.
"It's not that they're crazy, it's that everyone is turning their attention to the stars."
Lu Yi shook his head and said: "Not only us, but also Russia must have similar plans, and everyone dare not think about the breakthrough of controlled nuclear fusion, so they have to focus on the interior of the earth."
But now that controlled nuclear fusion has broken through, everyone is also urgently turning their attention to space and turning to the solar system.
So I felt very lucky at the time, I felt very lucky, otherwise if we had realized the crisis of heat pollution three years later, the ecological transformation of the earth would have been irreversible.
At that time, what awaits us humanity will either be extinction, or the development potential will no longer be after 99% of the population is gone.
I believe that some of the alien civilizations like us in the Fermi paradox will be trapped under the bottleneck of energy technology, but most of them are breakthroughs in controlled nuclear fusion, but they have not resisted the temptation of power increase, and they will eventually struggle to die in the heat pollution crisis.
Controlled nuclear fusion, it is like a tempting poisonous apple whose skin has been quietly coated with poison.
It's so tempting, so tempting that it's hard for people to restrain and control themselves to peel it, so tempting that people can't wait to eat it.
After all, it was okay to eat so many apples without peeling them before, so this time everyone will subconsciously think that it will be okay to eat it directly.
But if you really can't control yourself and eat it rashly without peeling the skin, the toxicity on it will poison people to death. ”
"Lu Lu, this is a bit unusual, such a serious crisis of heat pollution, I think the scientists in the above think tank of the atmospheric environment or the earth's environment should be aware of it and issue a warning."
Zhang Qing felt a little strange that there was no reaction from above to such a serious crisis problem, but instead allowed such a crazy strategic plan to be formulated.
"Someone must have realized it, just as Rupert had long recognized the problem and realized that excessive use of energy would lead to an increase in the total heat of the environment, which would lead to serious ecological problems.
But he didn't realize that the problem was so serious, and I don't think anyone else would realize that serious.
In the absence of corresponding mathematical model simulation analysis, everyone's prediction should be a hundred years from now, hundreds of years from now.
Even if someone is vaguely aware that this time may be fast, they can't say it without the data to back it up. ”
Lu Yi said with a wry smile: "This is a very simple question of human nature, and it is also a very reasonable scientific thinking.
In the context of a breakthrough in controllable nuclear fusion, the start of national construction, and the country's eyes on the starry sky, if you say something that lacks data support, you can not stand everyone's doubts and say it, even if you say it without data support, it is not convincing, and no one will believe you.
And the climate problem itself is difficult to solve, and El Niño is a headache for every climate expert every year, so even if the extreme weather was abnormal due to the increase in heat pollution in the past few years, I am afraid that no one would have thought that the situation would be so serious.
But once the power is not controlled, the reaction time in the previous years is missed, and the rapid deterioration of the environment and ecology enters the irreversible stage, it will be too late to react, and the ecological doomsday is irreversible. ”
"So the key to this problem is your data model!" Zhang Qing and the others realized the crux of the problem of thermal pollution.
"Yes, it is a mathematical model, with a correct mathematical model, the theory and conjecture supported by data are called science, and the one without the support of models and data is called delusion.
A delusional apocalypse, no one will believe it, and if you say it, people will probably say that you should not be a scientist, but should be a screenwriter and director. ”
Lu Yi's mind flashed over the points spent on modifying and building the new model, and he sighed and said: "And under normal circumstances, even if the atmospheric environment of the entire human civilization and the scientists of earth science and enough supercomputing resources are gathered, it will not be able to be built without more than two years of effort."
Thermal pollution, it's not about your energy efficiency, it's just about your total energy.
The energy that cannot be converted due to efficiency issues is released into the environment in various forms such as mechanical heat dissipation, mechanical conduction, friction, etc.
The effective energy that is successfully converted will still be released into the environment in various ways such as heat dissipation, radiation, and convection conduction in the process of energy transmission and energy consumption.
In other words, once energy is released from matter and produced, it must end up in the environment.
Therefore, if every civilization is like us this time, as soon as the breakthrough of controllable nuclear fusion cannot resist the temptation of power, then there will be no solution to the problem of thermal pollution, and civilization will struggle to perish in ecological dressing before it has time to go to the interstellar world! ”
"If that's the case, doesn't that mean that the speed of development of civilization will be limited, and even the power of warships of interstellar civilizations and the power of colonies will be limited?
Because the earth is equivalent to a large space station, there will be a crisis due to heat dissipation problems, and the same will be true if it is replaced with a colonized planet, and this problem is even more serious if it is replaced by a warship.
Unless everyone is living in quarantine or wearing a spacesuit, the heat generated is constantly emitted to the outside world, but the outside environment will be extreme to the point where it cannot be discharged over time. ”
Li Yashan raised a question, energy will inevitably release energy to the environment in the process of consumption, if this problem is not solved, could it be that those interstellar battleships are fighting, and the environment inside the battleship will deteriorate if they fire a few shots, and everyone will steam shrimp inside after a few shots?
After all, heat is difficult to release in space, it only accumulates inside.
"No, after realizing the serious crisis of thermal pollution, with more energy-efficient controlled nuclear fusion, the problem of heat dissipation can still be solved.
As long as the energy absorbed from the environment is greater than the energy released, the idea is simple. ”
Lu Yi shook his head and said, "But the heat dissipation problem is not urgent, the most important thing now is to tell the above about this matter and stop the plan that is ready to be implemented."