Zhao Xin also knows that it is not easy for a business leader of his level to get an exclusive interview, and Ye Hua is a very maverick, and he rarely speaks out in the public eye.

After sorting out his words, Zhao Xin glanced at his partner who was carrying the camera, confirmed it, and began to conduct a formal interview: "As the founder of Shoreline Group, it is not an exaggeration to say that you and your company are now almost a barometer of the world economy, especially the technology industry, just like during the previous press conference, you said that the international crude oil market immediately reversed......

Hearing this, Ye Hua interrupted with a smile: "I have to say this in advance, some of my right to speak should be talked about after dinner, don't take it seriously, don't come to trouble me when the time comes, just get rid of the pot first." ”

Zhao Xin couldn't help but smile, and after a little adjustment, she continued: "Then at the seminar just now, you exchanged many topics with many foreign scholars, including science and technology, cross-regional platform cooperation, and economic exchanges, especially your economic thesis with Edward Lazer, an American economist and management master and Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University, is very exciting, easy to understand and impressive, I didn't expect you to be an excellent economist in addition to scientists and entrepreneurs. ”

Hearing this, Ye Hua said calmly: "Frankly speaking, I am not an economist, nor do I systematically study and study economics, nor do I position myself as an economist, I position myself as a scientist, no, it should be said that I am a technical engineer, I have not yet reached the realm of a scientist, after all, I am still an entrepreneur, and to say something offensive, economists mostly speak for commercial interest groups, they do not have the spirit of seeking truth from facts like real scientists and technical engineers." ”

Indeed, the reputation of economists in the current era is getting more and more stinky, and Zhao Xin responded in her heart, she didn't dare to say it as disregarding offending people as Ye Hua.

However, as one of the gold medal reporters of "Jinghua News Agency", Zhao Xin's interview skills are undoubted, and he immediately said cleverly: "In any case, your views on the world economy at the seminar and exchange conference are very unique, which can be understood that you did not examine economics with an attitude of economics from the beginning, but came from other angles and looked at it from a level-headed perspective, so you did not learn theology, so you are more sharp and critical." ”

Ye Hua: "It's worthy of being a reporter from Jinghua, it seems that Ms. Zhao, you are preparing to let me, a layman, speak in layman's terms, and want me to make a fool of myself?" ”

Zhao Xin: "Mr. Ye said with a smile, in this interview, we hope to share, disseminate and exchange economic knowledge from your perspective. ”

Ye Hua: "I'm already on your thief ship and I can't run away without leaving something, haha." ”

Zhao Xin smiled kindly, Ye Hua immediately looked at her and said with a smile: "It's still the same sentence, some of my speech rights should be talked about after dinner, don't take it seriously!" ”

At the end, Ye Hua sorted out what he wanted to say in his heart, sorted out the language and said:

"I really learned a lot from the exchange with foreign scholars at the seminar, this kind of exchange can not only improve myself but also more interesting, the two sides were talking about the world economic situation, Mr. Lazel moved out of the fashionable theory of neoclassical economics, I remember he looked at me with a look of surprise and asked me why China's economy is growing so fast? Western economists have studied for a long time and do not know what the reason for such a rapid growth is. Then Mr. Lazer argued sharply and said, "You Chinese people are complete nonsense." ”

"What a sweatshop, plagiarizing advanced Western technology, etc."

"I said stealing technology, why don't you workers in the sunset industry in the northern United States go to Silicon Valley to steal? Isn't it easier for you Americans to steal from Americans? It is easier for the Philippines to steal American technology than us Chinese, and the Philippines is not blocked by technology, what about us? Batumi, the Wassenaar agreements greeted us in a flurry, so these words he said did not even have logic. ”

Zhao Xin smiled: "The scene of Mr. Edward Lazer's red face is still fresh in my mind. ”

Ye Hua: "So what is Mr. Lazer's logic?" I think there are two logical theories in it, one is Solow's growth theory, which is the so-called 'total factor productivity', or TFP for short, also known as 'aggregate factor productivity'. ”

"What does Lazer mean? He said that the law of economic growth is that the return to scale remains unchanged. For example, if I double the scale, the income has not actually increased. Most companies think that the return to scale is diminishing, which means that the bigger I do, the lower the efficiency, so I have to take it when I see it, and don't you achieve a balance? In other words, it means that the government should not intervene. ”

"But is that actually the case?"

"Obviously not, if Solo's theory is correct, then the world should have the same economic development rate, what is it equivalent to? Equivalent to population growth, so now the West is aging and the growth rate is getting slower and slower. ”

But does this theory explain how fast we've been growing over the past few decades? Can you explain how fast India is growing? Obviously not, because the actual situation is that the growth rate is much higher than the population growth, when our current population growth is about 5, the economic growth rate is not said to be more than 6 points now, don't look at the difference between 5 and 6, but you have to see how big our base is, and how big the final absolute value is. This is supported by data, language can deceive, data will not deceive people. ”

"And one of the most absurd things about Soreau's theory is that he has given a nice name to the factors that cannot be understood in the driving force of economic growth - total factor growth rate."

"For scientists and engineers, I don't know about it, but I don't know, you have to calculate that the economy is growing so fast, you have to deduct the contribution of labor, deduct the contribution of capital, deduct the contribution of population, what is left? Isn't it the progress of science and technology? ”

Zhao Xin: "The technological progress brought by Coastline Group as a high-tech company has stimulated economic growth. ”

Ye Hua: "Let's not talk about the coastline, even if a company has a promising giant company pattern, it is still a company. Scientific progress is definitely like we do technical research, and the goal is very clear, that is, continuous improvement, upgrading, and subversion. Tossing around like a drunk, will there be progress in technology? ”

"Solo calculated the remaining pile of residue and didn't know what it was, to come with a total factor growth rate."

"That scientist and technical engineer are very sincere, I don't know what this is going to be very honest to say I don't know, it needs to be explained."

"According to Solo's theory, what we get is a ridiculous result, China's economic growth rate is much higher than that of the United States, so it is impossible to say that China's TFP is not as good as the United States, and then if China is marketized, the economy can be faster than now, it is a fool's dream."

Zhao Xin: "Mr. Ye is still as sharp as ever." ”

Ye Hua: "Hehe, in fact, I want to refute Solo's theory very simply, just take a contrary theory to fight back against him, which was also put forward by them in the West, called 'endogenous growth theory', there is a theory that seems reasonable but is actually wrong, called knowledge is accumulated." ”

"Okay, then Britain was the initiator of the Industrial Revolution, according to this logic, of course Britain has accumulated more knowledge, go to Oxbridge, England, and the British will definitely collect more knowledge and literature than the United States, right?"

"Then let me ask you, is the UK's economic growth and technology more powerful than that of the United States? Not necessarily, right? ”

So from this article, we know that Solo's theory is extremely unreliable. Why? His theory is to assume that the accumulation of knowledge is an increase in scale, which means that the larger the scale, the faster the growth. If this is correct, his prediction that the gap between the north and the south will become wider and wider, the rich will get richer, and the poor will become poorer, if his theory is reliable, then according to his theory, there is no hope for developing countries to rise, and new companies have no hope of subverting the old giants, right? ”

"But what about reality? We have taken off in China! India's growth rate has also been good in recent years, as are other emerging market countries, and companies are doing the same. ”

And what do we actually see in the world? Some big countries have risen and some have fallen, the United States has taken off in full force after the war, and Britain, the former boss, has become the little brother of the United States now, right, it is a global consensus that the United States is declining now, and China is taking off in an all-round way. ”

"Some companies have risen up to become newly rising giants and some have declined, Google, Facebook, Huawei, these new super multinational giants, Sony, Motorola, Nokia have collapsed, and they have declined."

Zhao Xin: "Mr. Ye, have you forgotten that the most important thing you should ignore is also the most dazzling coastline group that is rising." ”

Ye Hua: "Of course I know this, but I'm not the founder of the coastline, isn't it a bit boastful to say, although I know it...... Forget this paragraph and remember to pinch it off, haha. ”

Zhao Xin: "Hehe, okay." ”

Ye Hua: "So a few happy and a few sad, my conclusion is that it is neither the convergence of exogenous growth nor the divergence of endogenous growth, but the metabolic growth theory proposed by Professor Chen, a scholar of physics and economics at Fudan University. ”

"To explain Professor Chen's theory of metabolic growth, we need to re-understand the Adam Smith problem, the Smith problem is self-contradictory, he has a guess, here I want to criticize, Smith did not dare to write in his title, when he discussed the need for government intervention in international trade, he told an analogy, called the invisible hand, and also told a story."

Zhao Xin: "What's the story?" ”

Ye Hua: "The story says that the Netherlands was a coachman at sea, who did trade and transported a shipload of grain from Königsberg to Portugal, but he couldn't sail back empty, right?" So when he went back, he loaded it with wine, and he could also put it with other products, so Adam Smith thought that the trade would automatically balance out. ”

"Is it really balanced? A very simple question, then let me ask Ms. Zhao, do you think that this shipload of grain and a shipload of wine will be of equal value? ”

Zhao Xin: "Of course not, a shipload of wine is definitely more expensive than a shipload of grain, just like transporting a shipload of PHC2.0 to the United States and selling it worth tens of billions of dollars, and coming back to load a shipload of soybeans may cost tens of millions, which is a problem that ordinary people know." ”

Ye Hua: "So the conclusion goes without saying, then give a few more examples, why did Britain fight the Opium War?" This can be answered by economic questions, because the British love to drink tea from the Chinese, Britain continued to run a trade deficit, and could not balance the Opium War, and finally had to grow tea in northeast India, and had to use visible hands to build railways to ship out, and it took about 170 years to balance the trade; Another example: How many years has the United States been running a sustained trade deficit from '71 to the present? Is it balanced? Not necessarily. ”

"So I read a few books on Western economics and thought that the market could automatically balance trade...... No, yes, yes! ”

……