An Junyi's affairs are relatively easier to handle, and they can be adjusted in place soon, while You Jinzhong is more troublesome, and he still needs to wait for Sun Weiyang's whole province to start adjusting......

Looking back on this year, there are many memories left in the Chinese people, especially the SARS at the beginning of the year, I believe that it will remain in people's memories for decades.

As far as Lu Zhengdong is concerned, the country's economy is just as he said in July, even after the ravages of SARS, the annual economic growth rate is still high, although the whole year is not over, but the goal of annual growth is completely in suspense, and the only suspense now is whether it can break through 9 percent.

On the question of whether the domestic economy is overheated, at the National Macroeconomic Forum of the World Chinese Entrepreneurs Summit at the end of the year, a number of experts and scholars in the field of economics and officials from government research institutions reviewed the economic development of the past three years and expressed their opinions on the economic development trend of the past four years, which has attracted widespread attention at home and abroad.

The reason why such a forum has attracted so much attention is that the central economic work conference will be held shortly after.

Its enthusiasm is not even inferior to the two sessions held at the beginning of the year, there are many meetings of the central government, but few are like the economic work conference, become the focus of public opinion, so that domestic and foreign people look forward to it, there are two main reasons: one is the economic policy issued by the economic work conference, which is related to the development of the whole country in the coming year, and the second is the public policy issued by the economic work conference, although it is the macro theme, but it is related to people's livelihood and well-being, and everyone's life is closely related. So I want to interpret it from the meeting. See how this meeting will affect you.

There are quite a few people who say that it looks like a situation. There are trends and signs of overheating in the domestic economy. Others also hold the opposite view, arguing that if not handled properly, the economy will not overheat, but may even tend to overcool.

Lu Zhengdong also listened very carefully, and in Lu Zhengdong's view, those who hold these two views have a certain amount of truth, and there are also some facts and development trends as evidence, but they are limited by their own perspectives and preconceived influences. Both are a bit of a generalization, so neither view can be said to be completely correct.

Lu Zhengdong also made a speech at the meeting, and Lu Zhengdong's viewpoint is that the economy cannot be said to be overheated, and one reason is that the speed of development at 9 o'clock is in our history, and more importantly, there are many factors restricting the further development of the economy, such as the pressure of appreciation of the renminbi, the reduction of the export tax rebate rate, and other factors, which will increase the cost of exports and will inevitably inhibit the export of China's commodities. In the absence of a substantial change in the structure of merchandise exports, the growth of total exports will slow down. There are no obvious and effective ways to transfer surplus labor in rural areas and increase employment in urban areas, and there are insufficient labor-intensive industries and small and medium-sized enterprises. Therefore, the growth of employment and income is limited, and the growth of consumption will not correspondingly adapt to the growth rate of GDP.

Although there is no sign of overheating in the economic fundamentals from this aspect, there is indeed overheating in the investment sector, such as development zones, real estate, steel, automobiles, etc.; The investment structure is dominated by infrastructure and capital-intensive large enterprises.

There is a cycle of investment pulling, of course, it is impossible for investment to be fully converted, because there is a period of time from investment to effectiveness, but how much can be converted in the second year, it can also explain a little problem, the historical high is 0.5, but the first two years are only about 0.2, that is to say, for every yuan invested, only two dimes in the second year will be converted into GDP.

Others will be reflected in the future, and if we continue to increase investment, we will show it in the later cycle.

In previous years, investment accounted for about one-third of GDP, but in the past two years, it has exceeded 40 percent, and this year it will set a record of nearly 4.5 percent.

The main reason for this trend is that the domestic economy is in an upward phase, and the rise and growth of the economy leads to the growth of investment. Secondly, the country is in the middle of industrialization, and the development of heavy chemical industry is accelerating, and heavy industry and chemical industry are investment-intensive industries, which will also cause the growth of investment.

The contribution of factors such as science and technology, culture, education, and management to GDP growth generally accounts for half of the GDP growth in developed countries, while the domestic ratio was generally maintained between two and three percent before. In the first two years, the role of comprehensive factors was reduced to more than 10 percent, and this proportion obviously affected the balance between investment and consumption.

All these show that the current situation of China's economy is that investment growth is too fast, or that other aspects have not received enough attention and development is too slow.

Overheating investment looks good in the short term, because it will increase social needs and drive economic growth, but too fast investment growth is likely to cause overproductivity, and it is important to maintain rapid economic development, but it cannot be completely relied on to increase investment in large quantities, such development is unsustainable and contrary to sustainable development.

Yang Zhongan, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, glanced at Lu Zhengdong who was speaking with some complicated feelings, Lu Zhengdong seems to have a natural sense of smell for the economy, and can always directly grasp the essence through the phenomenon, and is very sensitive to the thoughts of the high-level. That's why many policy measures are piloted before they're fully implemented.

In many decision-making policies related to the national economy and people's livelihood, tentative exploration can be more and faster, but to really implement them on a large scale and comprehensively, it is necessary to fully assess the huge impact that may be bringed.

To be honest, he really hoped that Lu Zhengdong could stay longer in the western office, and it would be difficult for such a person to think of results.

However, what surprised him was that Lu Zhengdong seemed to have the hope of making a move, and he naturally did not lack such a source channel for sensitive personnel information, and he had already learned that there would be a round of personnel changes in the period before and after the two sessions of the Central Committee next year, and in particular, the leaders of some provinces and cities whose economy has never been able to improve or whose economic development problems are more prominent will carry out a round of large-scale adjustments.

It's just that even he was surprised by Lu Zhengdong's problem, without him, it's still a matter of age, Lu Zhengdong may indeed be a rare talent, but after all, he is too young, and he is really qualified to serve as the chief party and government officer in a place in terms of qualifications and experience? Maybe let Lu Zhengdong work in the position of deputy director of the Western Affairs Office for another two years, and at that time it will be barely feasible to go down to serve as the governor of a certain province, but now that he has to be pushed up, he can't help but feel a little too hasty, even he is like this, don't talk about others.

Of course, this also illustrates some things from one side, and the final result depends on whether the top management can reach an agreement, and the most important thing is to see what kind of choice the old man of the Yun family will make......

Sun Weiyang was also quite emotional when he got the news, when he was transferred from Xihe, served as vice governor and governor, and entered the sequence of members of the Central Committee in five years, which has caused a heated discussion in the media at home and abroad, and at least several of the members of the Central Committee in his batch were similar to his age at the time, and even younger than himself, but he rose faster, two years as vice governor, two years as executive vice governor, one year as deputy secretary, and then he went to the position of governor, from vice minister to main department in five years. This is already fast enough, but Lu Zhengdong has been at the deputy ministerial level for a shorter time than him, and he is one round younger than him.

Sun Weiyang couldn't help but feel a little dream-like, when he was just the secretary of the Municipal Party Committee of Long Beach, in his imagination, no matter how hard he worked in this life, it was estimated that a deputy minister level was the apex of his career, and he would think that he would become a feudal official in charge of one party?

For Lu Zhengdong, he also didn't expect that he thought Lu Zhengdong was indeed a good seedling, but he never imagined that Lu Zhengdong would go so fast anyway...... (To be continued......)