Chapter 142: Don't Fall in Love with Stocks!
"Shanghai Ganglian really deserves to be the leading soul stock of the two cities, and the last fifteen minutes of this end market can be called wonderful."
Seeing the closing results of the Shanghai Steel Union and the shocking reversal trend in the last fifteen minutes of the stock's last trading, some retail investors couldn't help but marvel at the online stock forum.
"Without the blessing of the seat of the wealth road, and under the negative performance, it is still so strong, it seems that the market is not over!" Chasing in the morning, I thought it was buried, but I didn't expect there to be a surprise at the end. ’
"Today's trend of the Shanghai Ganglian is a wash, right?"
"Absolutely, looking at the time-sharing transaction in the last fifteen minutes of the end of the market, the big money is really buying, and the selling is basically all scattered orders."
"It's also possible that the main force is saving itself!"
"Whether it's washing dishes or self-help, you'll know by looking at the Dragon and Tiger List later.
"Yes, the Shanghai Ganglian has a very large amplitude today, and the turnover rate is also quite high, and there must be a dragon and tiger list."
"Although there is no second board, in the case of weak market expectations, it finally closed sharply higher and outperformed the index, which is enough to prove the strength of this stock, and it is enough to show that its market is not over."
"Yes, the original weak sentiment in the intraday was directly reversed by the rise in the end of the session."
"However, the end of the rise, or a bit of a raid, if it is not for the market trend today, the investment sentiment in the field is hot, I am afraid that at more than 1 o'clock in that wave, the Shanghai Ganglian will fall directly to the limit.
"On the whole, the main direction of the attack on the active funds in the market today is still on the stocks that exceed expectations. "Where? Many blue-chip and white-horse sectors with good performance, except for liquor, basically did not move.
"It should be said that the stocks in the emerging industry sector that exceed the expected performance, such as Netspeed Technology, Fenda Technology, etc., are indeed stronger than the Shanghai Ganglian today."
"The logic is different, I still like the straight profiteering type of Shanghai Ganglian.
"I'm the same, and I see that after the Shanghai Ganglian appeared on the Fortune Road, this road fell, and quickly stopped falling on the height of the first wave of speculation in the early stage, that is, around 20 yuan, which shows that the future expectation logic of the Shanghai Ganglian should be recognized by the short-term funds of the entire market. There's still a lot of upside. ”
"Obviously, in the short term, the weak is not weak but not weak, which is the performance of today's Shanghai Steel Federation."
"I also feel that the Shanghai Ganglian in the price range of 20 yuan to 23 yuan, has a strong ability to support, it turns out that the funds have been killed several times, so many days, the cumulative turnover rate is more than 100%, that is, the chips in the field have almost changed a stubble, but the Shanghai Ganglian still continues to support in this position, the stock price will inevitably rise in the future.
"Yesterday's daily limit should illustrate the expected attitude of big money towards this stock, right?"
When the online stock forum, everyone's discussion of the Shanghai Ganglian stock rose again... In Su Yu's main group of floating capital, some people also expressed surprise at the trend of this stock today.
"Shanghai Ganglian today's trend.... It's a bit more than expected!"
"Indeed, I originally thought that this check was fermented in the morning mood, and it was not able to pull up, and in the afternoon, when all the funds in the field went to chase the performance ticket, it was going to kill and stop, but I didn't expect to finally pull it up from underwater, and the funds for this check in the end of the market are something!"
"The future expectations of the Shanghai Steel Federation are still there, and today this is a divergence."
"Yes, if many of today's good performance votes fall tomorrow, then the funds will naturally pour back to the 'Internet finance' sector led by the Shanghai Ganglian.
"Honestly... Ge is not optimistic about the main direction of today's funds, especially the liquor sector. ’
"Not to mention that the current market is still a game of stock funds, it is simply impossible to pull these layers of trapped white horses, blue chips even if it is a ticket like Internet speed technology and Fenda technology, it is almost time for a callback, after all, since the market bottomed out on June 25, the cumulative increase of these votes is too big, and the profit plate is piled up very thickly.
"On the other hand, the Shanghai Ganglian and many pure concepts of 'Internet finance stocks' have recently adjusted quite sufficiently."
"And in this sector, almost all concept stocks, the circulation is not very large, which is very suitable for the attack direction of the current market funds.
"I also think that the Shanghai Ganglian, as well as the 'Internet finance' sector market, is not over.
"After all, it is the core concept of 'financial technology' that is strongly promoted by the country's macroeconomy, and I think we can continue to do it
"Like this kind of core main line concept, there are no 5 times or 10 baggers, and it will definitely not be over."
"What about the dragon head? Do you think it will still be driven by the Shanghai Ganglian as the core?'
"At present, it is still the most popular of the Shanghai Ganglian, and the capital gathering effect is the largest. Tianyu information is not bad. ’
"Today, Tianyu Information is indeed stronger than Shanghai Ganglian."
"But today's trend logic of Tianyu Information should be completely different from that of Shanghai Ganglian, right?
"Hey, the Shanghai Ganglian or Brother Su walked out of the sky on the day they came out was too hurtful, and it would be very laborious to cross the huge yin line in the future!"
"Well, indeed..... In essence, this check is still the core concept of the Su brothers. ”
"It's a pity that Brother Su made two waves of big profits, and he cleared his position at a high level, so he shouldn't come back, right?"
"That's hard to say, Brother Su rarely plays cards according to routines!"
"Let's take a look at the dragon and tiger list, today's end of the market to pull up the Shanghai Ganglian this share of funds, very bold, I don't know which way to the main force?"
With the heated discussion of everyone, at half past five in the afternoon, the new list of dragons and tigers was announced.
The Shanghai Steel Federation is on the list, and Su Yu's Yuhang Fortune Road seat has entered the buy list.
Although the purchase capital of his seat is not large, only 9.9 million, ranking third on the buy list, it is far better to buy one and buy two, but when the majority of investors in the market saw Yuhang Fortune Road reappear on the Shanghai Ganglian buy list, they were still excited, and the discussion was hot, and it exploded in an instant.
", Fortune Road has appeared on the Shanghai Ganglian Dragon and Tiger List again!"
"Haha... The road to wealth is finally back, I know, I know... The market of Shanghai Ganglian is absolutely endless.
"Finally, I waited until the king of the Fortune Road returned, and I was moved.... I took the chip at 29 yuan, and I can finally get out of the trap this time, right?'
"Shanghai Ganglian is really the love stock of Fortune Road!"
"What is the concept of 'revival system' stocks, what is the concept of 'Internet finance' leader, in my opinion.... The biggest rising logic of the Shanghai Ganglian, that is, the concept of wealth road, only the wealth road leads, this stock can make people continue to look high, did not say.. Tomorrow is a scramble. ’
"But today's Fortune Road buys funds, it's not big!"
"Today should be the Fortune Road test position, right? Don't worry, I think that since Fortune Road is still buying, it will definitely continue to increase its position.
"It doesn't matter how much money you buy, it's the attitude that matters."
"Yes, as long as you follow the trend quickly, you won't lose money at all within three trading days after buying Fortune Road."
"This year, the Shanghai Ganglian is the biggest bull stock in the market, right?"
"No, if you calculate the overall increase from the beginning of the year to today, Hua Qingbao is the real one who rides the dust, although the Shanghai Steel Federation has risen two waves in a row in the past two months, but each wave of callbacks is also fierce, often either up or down, the overall increase is not much."
"Shanghai Ganglian can only be regarded as a demon stock, not a bull stock.
"But whether it's a demon stock or a bull stock, as long as it's the wealth road that has taken care of it, it won't be bad, and when you see the wealth road buying, you can rest assured that you can buy it boldly, just don't go up a lot in the back, and then continue to chase higher."
"Indeed, speaking of which, the stocks that have risen sharply in the current market are all Fortune Road concept stocks!"
"Isn't that? Fenda Technology, Internet Speed Technology, Huaqingbao, Changqu Technology, Tianyu Information.... These tickets, that fortune road has not been done? Moreover, the wave of gains in Fenda Technology, Hua Qingbao, and Tianyu Information from the bottom is basically the handiwork of Fortune Road. ’
"I have to say that Fortune Road's ability to dig up bull stocks and create demon stocks is really a must."
"There is no one of the strongest players in the current market
In the whole online and offline, countless retail investors who pay attention to the Shanghai Iron and Steel Federation, in the excited and surging mood, Su Yu is in the main tour capital group, and everyone is quite shocked by the data of the Shanghai Iron and Steel Federation.
"Damn, it's really Brother Su!"
"I'll just say that the funds that have risen at the end of the Shanghai Ganglian are something, as expected."
"Brother Su is in and out twice, on this stock, making almost 5 times the profit, it is enough to make people envious and jealous, is Brother Su planning to come again?"
"Quite possibly!"
"Looking at the market situation, after the Su brothers' seats were exposed again, the popularity of the Shanghai Ganglian soared directly to the first place in the hot stock rankings of the two cities."
"I have to say, it has to be Brother Su's cow!"
"However, in this position, the Shanghai Steel Federation will continue to have another wave of market, and there should not be many people who dare to follow the trend, right? Can you pull it up? Moreover, Brother Su's seat influence is too great, if he enters the market on a large scale, especially after pulling out the height of two or three boards, I am afraid that many main funds will not dare to enter the relay again. ’
"After all, according to the previous experience, if it is too long after the Su brothers enter the market, they will follow the trend and relay in a high position."
"The Dansu brothers quickly smashed the market, and the effect of retail investors following the trend will also be quite terrifying, and there is no main capital to bear
Catchable. ’
"Just like the main capital that was undertaken in the 30 yuan of the Shanghai Ganglian before, they were really directly slaughtered by the Su brothers.
"As long as the logic of the Shanghai Steel Union is hard enough, then there is no problem."
"Brother Su enters, within the three boards, there should not be much risk, outside the three boards, it is difficult to say."
"Even if it's the height of the three boards, it has to directly touch the position of 30 yuan, that's a solid chip trapping area, Brother Su shot this time... Are you really going to be a member of the People's Liberation Army?'
"It's hard to say, Brother Su has entered three times, so I don't dare to follow.
"Take a step, look at a step!"
"If the Shanghai Steel Federation is really going to a new high position of 30 yuan next with the blessing of the Su brothers, after all the chips in the field are liberated, then I have to say that I can really take a look at it."
"Relying solely on the two hard-core concepts of 'revival system' and 'Internet finance', fried to 30 yuan, which is almost the limit, before the Su brothers appeared, they should also agree with 30 yuan, and the bottom is three times the height, if you want to open up space in the position of 30 yuan, I am afraid there is no other good stimulus, it is very difficult!"
"On the whole, the height is too high, and it depends on the joint force of market funds and emotional changes at every step of the Shanghai Ganglian."
"But in any case, the check of the Shanghai Ganglian has undoubtedly become a symbol of the Su brothers' seats, which is truly comparable to the battle when President Xu was the helmsman of Yuzhou Beer."
"Yes, even if you are a bystander, seeing Brother Su entering and exiting two times on the Shanghai Iron and Steel Federation, reaping several times the profits, it is also exciting and breathtaking!"
"But this vote, ordinary people really can't hold it."
"Don't talk about others, I went in three times and went out, but I didn't hold it, and the total profit was less than 30%, which can be described as miserable."
"Uh.... A profit of 30% is still miserable? I've relayed more than you, and the total profit is less than 20%. "You've eaten the floor, haven't you?"
The messages in the group continued to refresh, Su Yu looked at it for a while, did not speak, and directly closed the chat box in the group.
After the establishment of the private equity institution, as the amount of funds he handled became larger and larger, and as the influence of his seat became more and more influential, he was no longer good at speaking publicly.
After all, this time
The slightest remark of his may be amplified by the market, which will bring him some unnecessary trouble.
If you really want to speak out and show some of your thoughts and opinions, he thinks that just the data of the dragon and tiger list revealed by the seat table is enough.
After leaving a group chat.
Su Yu took advantage of the fact that before getting off work, he continued to learn about the changes in the holdings of Jingda Investment's main fund from Lin Antu.
Knowing that the other party had indeed significantly reduced his holdings in Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao, and also confirmed that his operation strategy was not wrong, he left the company with Li Meng.
In the evening, with the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Index, and the ChiNext Index rebounding for two consecutive days.
The investment sentiment of the entire market has obviously warmed up a lot.
Like Shanghai Ganglian, Fenda Technology, Internet Speed Technology, Huaqingbao, Changqu Technology, Tianyu Information.... The discussion of these core hot stocks on the GEM continues to rise, and the number of optimistic investors is also increasing; However, investors holding shares in the traditional financial sector, real estate, nonferrous metals, steel, coal and other main board weighted sectors are still full of complaints and anger.
Of course
For example, today's overall sector rose by more than 3%, driving the entire 'big consumption' rebound in the liquor sector.
Today, he raised his eyebrows, which made many investors and large capital institutions trapped in this sector breathe a sigh of relief and gave birth to a lot of hope for a reversal of the predicament.
Moreover, thanks to the excellent performance of many stocks in the sector.
The core, such as Qianzhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Jincheng Fenjiu and other first- and second-tier liquor brand stocks, have been touted by countless brokerages and investment institutions to buy research reports, and even an investment analyst of 'Anhe Securities' made a long analysis in the research report, and directly shouted the slogan of "ten times in five years" for these first- and second-tier liquor brand stocks, which attracted the attention of many investors.
"Ten times in five years, these analysts, how dare you say it!"
Li Meng browsed a lot of institutional research reports on the liquor sector, and complained speechlessly.
Su Yu smiled and said: "The research report of the institution, some data can be referenced, but if you really believe in their buying and selling suggestions, it is really stupid, speaking of which.... It's not impossible to 'five years and ten times' in the wine sector, and this said... Put it on any stock in the whole market, it's possible. ’
"After all, in the future, there is no certainty, you can say anything."
"No matter how powerful an investment analyst is, he can't see through it and predict the market situation and industry changes in a year or two in advance, let alone five years?
"The current market institutions invest, 99.9% of fund managers, that is just staring at the quarterly report, annual report and then look at it." "It's just a three-month, half-year expectation.
"Who would be stupid enough to look for three or five years? After all, even the company itself does not know what will happen to its business in three or five years. ’
"Put it on the stock price
"Even if the performance has grown continuously for five years, the stock price trend in the market may be cut in half first, and then rise several times." Li Meng listened to him, smiled, and said: "What you mean is that these research reports are not credible, and in fact, in the entire market, most of the long-term investments, are just fortune telling!"
"Yes!" Su Yu said with a smile, "Long-term investment and short-term investment are actually probability investment, the so-called value investment and stock price speculation, in essence... They all have different paths to the same end. ’
"This market.... Is there really value investing?" After a pause, Li Meng asked.
Su Yu thought for a while and replied, "Well... For investors, it's faith, if you believe that there is, then it has, and if you think that all investments are essentially probabilistic investments, then it doesn't.
"If not, how can Berkshire's success be explained?" Li Meng was a little confused.
Su Yu replied with a smile: "Thanks to the long-term bull of the U.S. stock market and the continuous improvement of national strength, when the macro environment has been very good, the business risk and profitability of the enterprise are relatively optimistic. Over the years, fund managers who can essentially do this are very rare.
"Preferred stocks." Li Meng said, "This is originally an explanation of value investing!"
Su Yu replied: "That's not necessarily, in your opinion.... What kind of corporate stocks do you think are excellent?'
Li Mengmeng thought about it and said: "The operation is stable, the management has a broad vision and is down-to-earth, the wealth indicators are healthy, and it exceeds its peers, it has core competitiveness, and it has a broad moat....
"For example?" Su Yu continued to ask.
"A-shares, Qianzhou Moutai, Yangtze River Power, Gree Electric Appliances, and Kewan Real Estate have always been relatively good...... Li Meng blurted out, citing the example of more than a dozen stocks.
Su Yu bowed his head with a smile and said: "According to the fundamentals you said, from the perspective of industry status, product pricing power, core technology brand influence, these so-called corporate moats, as well as historically excellent financial indicators, and stable business performance, these .... Excellent stock indeed. ’
"But this can only show that their historical performance and historical performance are very good."
"And we invest, we look at the future."
"Take Qianzhou Moutai, which you think has a unique business model and a very wide brand moat, looking forward to the future, can its performance continue to grow?"
"Of course not!" Li Meng said, "No company's performance growth rate can be maintained forever. ”
Su Yu nodded and said: "Yes, all excellent companies are relative, no matter how good the history is, there are times when the fundamentals of the performance stall deteriorate, the so-called has been seeking excellent corporate investment and practicing value investment, which is originally a false proposition, how do you know that it will always be excellent in the future and the intrinsic stock value has been improving?"
"So, in my opinion, stocks that have historically performed well
"The only thing that can give people some comfort is that it will make investors feel that its future performance will be worse than that of stocks with worse historical performance, and there is just a little more probability of sustained performance."
"Throughout Palao's investment history, he has been trying and making mistakes for decades, and he is only using the principle of choosing stocks with 'excellent historical performance' to increase the certainty of future investment. That's why. ’
"But following this, in fact, sometimes you just happen to let yourself fall into a kind of 'investment trap'
"When you accept the concept of value investment, when you believe that a company, a stock, will continue to be excellent, then when its performance stalls and the stock price falls sharply, you will not perceive, and will always believe that the intrinsic value of the company has not changed, but the market is wrong This illusion, and in this illusion, generally an investor will not stop the loss in time, and on the contrary, he will most likely continue to increase his position, because he believes that the value will eventually return.
"So, in my opinion, for the average investor."
"Especially for individual investors whose fault tolerance rate is far less than that of large institutions, value investing is an evil path."
"When you fall in love with stocks, the end result is not a breakup, but often being hurt by it, and eventually your faith collapses, in my opinion.... Any 'value investment stock' that is praised by market investors has the style of a 'scumbag' in its inner nature!"