Chapter 143 The essence of trading is probabilistic investing
"So... In your opinion, what is the right investment?" Li Meng asked.
Su Yu thought for a while and said: "There is no necessarily correct way to invest, because investment is originally in the face of an uncertain future, what we can do is to increase the probability of investment profits, whether it is 'value investment', 'trend investment', 'K-line technology investment..... The essence of what various schools of thought is actually doing is to find ways to increase the probability of making a profit on this investment
"We can do it
"It's just based on your own cognition and analysis, no matter what method you use, to achieve this fundamental goal." "If you can't see through this layer, and believe in any investment school, that's an evil way.
"Because only the ways and methods that are suitable for you and in line with your own cognition can help you truly form your own trading system.
"Of course, these genre techniques, since they are widely circulated in the market, are not useless."
"It's just that in the face of these 'technical' things, there's no need to indulge too deeply.
"After all, these are just lessons of experience, and the market is not linear, it's irregular, and there's no definite logic."
"In other words, there are no gods in this world, right?" Li Meng's understanding of 'investing together' suddenly felt a little deeper, and asked with a smile, "Everyone is actually betting on probability." ”
"Yes!" Su Yu replied, "The essence of trading is probability.
"Just saying
"The same trade probability, sometimes, will have different results, of course.... The decisive factor is the other things that need attention.
"Hmm!" Li Meng nodded, "In addition to judgment, risk control will also bring different endings. ”
Of course, Su Yu mentioned before how to control risks, profit and loss and stop loss, and Li Meng has mastered some of them after this period of practice, so he will naturally not ask again.
The two continued to talk for a while before they went to sleep.
The next day, Wednesday, July 17.
As soon as Su Yu came to the company, he received a call from his brother-in-law Zhang Jianbo, who said that after a week of initial contact, Ancai Paper Group had agreed to conduct formal negotiations.
Although for the current situation of Ancai Paper, the progress of this matter is expected by him.
But when he really saw the dawn of being able to win that piece of land, his heart was still extremely excited.
Su Yu replied to Zhang Jianbo, asked him to negotiate with peace of mind, and said that as long as the other party's asking price is less than 100 million, then there is no need to ask too much for other conditions, hurry up, and take down the land.
Now there are more than 10 days and half a month before the internal shareholders' meeting of Kumho Group is held.
For the time being, due to the fierce internal disputes and interests of Kumho Group, the entire group has not yet focused on the backdoor listing.
This is the best time for him to make a secret move and grab the key game chips in the future.
If this period is not discussed, when the dust settles on the internal disputes of Kumho Group, the demand for sorting out interests will be transferred back to the core of backdoor listing, and the in-depth contact with Ancai Paper, then... It is basically impossible for him to snatch food again.
Zhang Jianbo inspected the location and area of the land
Although I am still not sure of Su Yu's real motives, I have to admit that it is a treasure land, but this land is far away from the core urban area, and it does not conform to the current overall urban planning direction of Yuhang.
Plus it's an industrial site.
Without the help of the provincial and municipal macroeconomic and urban construction planning, it is difficult to convert to commercial development.
"Okay!" After listening to Su Yu's advice, Zhang Jianbo answered on the phone, "After our investigation and understanding, the factory site of Ancai Paper, under the pressure of the Environmental Protection Bureau, is bound to be relocated and vacated. ”
"Don't worry, I will definitely save the cost that can be saved."
"But if I can't save it, I naturally won't 'lose a big result because of a small one', and let the cost damage the original negotiation results."
Su Yu replied with a smile: "Brother Jianbo is doing things, I am very relieved, of course.... If the other party's asking price is too high, more than 100 million funds, and there is really no way to make concessions, and you can't negotiate, you call me again, and I'll figure it out. ”
Negotiation is a game.
Although Ancai Paper is in urgent need of funds to complete the relocation of the new site and the establishment of a new product line, and at the same time it is facing great administrative pressure, it does not rule out that the other party is biting the price, striving for premium profits, and extending the negotiation period.
Therefore, on his side, for the sake of the emergence of emergencies.
It is necessary to have a backup plan.
Fortunately, he now has the maximum amount of funds he can use, that is, all the funds in the stock account are withdrawn, and he can still make up nearly 30 million or so, which is completely able to deal with emergencies.
"Good!" Zhang Jianbo responded with a smile, and then hung up the phone.
After answering the phone, Su Yu immediately turned around and returned to the company's fund trading room, focusing on the interface between the two markets that had ended the call auction and was in the stage of short suspension before 9:30.
Saw
Due to the unsatisfactory trend of U.S. stocks last night, many investment sentiments that warmed up yesterday were hedged, resulting in the three major indexes of the Shanghai Index, the Shenzhen Index, and the ChiNext Index all opening almost 0.5% lower.
Sectors and individual stocks.
Yesterday's strong 'electronic information', 'Apple industry chain', 'mobile game' several major concept plates, today are all red plate high, the main board 'liquor concept', 'white goods' concept plate slightly red plate; Among them, the popular concept stocks in various sectors, such as Fenda Technology, Internet Speed Technology, Changqu Technology, Jincheng Fenjiu, Gree Electric Appliances, Robam Appliances and other tickets, also opened slightly higher, and the mood was relatively good.
As for the Shanghai Ganglian
Thanks to Su Yu's seat bonus, as well as yesterday's unexpected late trend.
Today's check, in the call auction stage, has attracted the attention of the vast majority of short-term funds in the entire market, and there has been a certain rush to raise funds, almost more than 2 points higher.
In addition to these tickets, as the "Yuhang No. 1" newly established so-called "Shanghai Free Trade Zone" latent concept stocks.
The performance was not so good.
The sluggish performance of the Shanghai and Hong Kong Group, Waigaoqiao, in the case of yesterday's contrarian killing, continued to open low today, and when the auction was called, even if Su Yu and Li Meng did not press, their capital trading situation is also obvious large single selling suppression trend, which proves that the main funds in the field other than them, for these two checks, are still not optimistic, and insist on cutting positions and stopping losses.
In addition to the worst performers, Gaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group.
For example, Lujiazui, Shanghai Trading, Pudong Jinqiao, and Jinjiang Investment are much more flat, with no capital attention and no obvious selling suppression, that is, they follow the fluctuations of the index with the flow and have no autonomy.
Su Yu took advantage of the 5 minutes of the short pause, carefully sorted out the stocks he was concerned about and the overall market of the two cities, and said with a smile: "In the first two days, the volume was increased, and the emotions were consumed. The index has to take two steps and turn back. ”
"Hmm!" Li Meng replied and said, "There is still a lack of incremental funds in the market, and it has always been the stock of funds that are in the game, so it has led to the fact that as soon as there is a stir in the external market, A-shares will not be stable, and there is a great probability of following the trend of the pullback." ”
Su Yu said with a smile: "This is inevitable, after all, in the index bottomed out, the initial stage of the bear-bull conversion, it was originally a hazy period in the market, in addition to the lack of confidence you said, the stock game, the new entry funds are extremely limited, and the front is heavy, and it must be consumed a little bit... For other reasons, the index turns back three times in one step, and turns back in two steps, which is a healthy trend state, and... In fact, at this stage, it is very good to grasp the rhythm, and the success rate of doing T will be quite high. ”
His voice is loud.
He didn't just say these words to Li Meng, but also Wang Can and several other new traders.
Li Meng nodded with a smile, looked at the time that was rapidly approaching 9:30, and asked, "Do you still continue yesterday's operation?"
"Yes!" Su Yu nodded, "Taking advantage of the index pullback, it is a good time to pressure the plate and create panic." "According to the detailed position information of 'Jingda Investment' he received, although the share of the other party's fund holdings in Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao is not particularly large, the absolute market value of the position is not small, and the overall market value of the two stocks exceeds 200 million. And to the liquidity of Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao.
The market value of these 200 million positions, if you want to clear it, it will not be one day.
Therefore, in order to make the other party exit as soon as possible, and help them to press the holding cost to a very low position, they should use the chips in their hands to continue to press, then they have to press.
Moreover, on the way to press the Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao.
Su Yu also had to use the funds in his hand to continue to grab funds on Jincheng Fenjiu, creating a state of continuous fund-raising and a strong trend.
In this way, the other party can believe that the liquor plate is on the way to the 'reversal of the dilemma'.
In order to enable the other party to continue to add the funds reduced by Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group to the liquor heavy position sector that can enable the net value of the other party's fund to achieve a rapid increase.
thereupon
When 9:30 a.m. arrived, the stagnant individual stock market in the two markets began to move.
Su Yu and Li Meng quickly began to repeat yesterday's operation routine, staring at the timing of the big order selling, snatching the buying order with the other party, and killing the disk of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group.
At the same time, other traders use the fund sub-account with little money in their hands.
On several strong stocks held by the fund on a large scale, do intraday operation exercises, follow the skills and methods taught by Su Yu, be familiar with the market trend, and improve your own operation skills and market sense.
And in the middle of this
As the core focus of the two cities, the Shanghai Ganglian has walked out of the four lines and continued to rush for funds.