Chapter 870: Rebound, or Reversal?

"Huh...... Unexpectedly, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3600 points. ”

In the face of the closing results of the two cities, the magic capital, the interior of Zexi Investment Company, the main fund trading room, Zhou Kan stared at the fixed plate of the two cities, and said in surprise: "It seems that the Shanghai Index is in this position, and the support is still quite strong, and 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', ' Film and television media's core main lines, after continuous adjustment in the previous few consecutive trading days, its internal profit and unhedging orders, almost cleared up most of it, I feel that the power of the bears to suppress the disk is weakening, and the power of the bulls is ...... It has begun to regain the initiative in the market. ”

"Although the Shanghai Index briefly regained the 3,600 point level, it ......" Zhou Kan next to him, Xu Shen, who was also staring at the closing results of the two cities, pondered for a while, and said, "The news and fundamentals of the market have not improved significantly, and the general expectations of the investor group on the market have not changed at all. The bargaining chip structure in the core main line areas such as film and television media is still in a decentralized structure, and it is difficult to form an effective centralized long force.

From the current news, fundamentals, funds, and chip structure...... and other factors.

At this time, the two city indices could not hold up at all.

The position of 3600 points is not quite like being able to hold the market at this time and quickly reverse the feedback of market sentiment. ”

"But at present, according to today's closing results of the two cities, as well as the trend of the end of the two cities...... Zhou Kan said, "'big consumption', 'smart phone industry chain', 'mobile Internet', 'medicine' The core main lines have somewhat replaced 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', ' Even if the position of 3600 points is not the bottom position of the market in the short term, it should also show that the main line of the market's investment style and investment hotspots are gradually changing, right? ”

Xu Shen said: "At the end of today's session, the investment style and speculation hotspots of the market have indeed shifted from the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' in the early stage to a number of small and medium-sized stocks such as 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain', and a number of growth concept stocks in the direction of the gem, but ...... This change in the main line of the market has not been recognized by a number of short-term main capital groups in the market, nor has it formed a consistent bullish situation on the market.

If the main line of the market investment style and the core hot spot of speculation are concerned, this has changed.

And the follow-up mainline investment style and speculation hotspots will continue to be transferred...... At least for now, this logical line doesn't make sense.

Analyze from the aspects of news, fundamentals, funds, and chip structure.

The core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' are fully analyzed with the trend structure of industry sectors that have recently resisted decline, such as 'medicine', 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphone industry chain'.

We found ......

In fact, 'medicine', 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', 'smart phone industry chain' and other popular main line areas.

In addition to the short-term chip structure, which is cleaner than the chips in the early popular main line areas such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media', it does not have the so-called advantages in other factors, and there is no logical landing point to attract long-term investment from all major funds.

Take the two main lines of 'medicine' and 'big consumption' as examples.

These two main lines, in the previous years of bear market experience, in fact, the valuation has remained relatively high.

Even the current valuation level is significantly higher than the overall valuation level of many popular stocks and popular industry sectors in the main line of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.

As for the two main areas of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'.

Even more so.

Because the future expectations of these two main areas are obviously open-card.

Therefore, the majority of investor groups inside and outside the market have never been expected to value the core stocks, related concept sectors and industry sectors in these two main line areas, which has led to the overall valuation of the relevant popular stocks and industry sectors in these two main line concept areas has been in a relatively high position.

And because everyone is optimistic about the future expectations of these two main areas.

It has also led to the fact that the chip structure of these two main areas is still relatively chaotic.

It's just that because of these two main areas, in front of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', 'film and television media'...... and other popular main lines continue to soar, relatively not much rise, to the majority of investor groups inside and outside the market, creating a low-level stagflation expectation.

And the generation of this expectation has created a short-term rebound in these two main areas.

In the same way, other 'non-ferrous cycles', 'petrochemicals', 'animal husbandry'...... and other relatively stagflational, and relatively unpopular mainline conceptual fields, as well as related conceptual themes.

In the recent market trend, the disk performance is significantly stronger than the popular main lines such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media', which is also the reason.

In other words, due to its advantages in chip structure.

These conceptual plates have the momentum to rebound.

However, the short-term rebound momentum and short-term emotional speculation cannot change the actual expectations of this main line area, nor can it drive the market to form a sustained upward momentum and pull the index back to the previous aggressive upward trend and continuous surge.

Analyze from the macro and fundamental aspects of the market.

At present, only the main lines of 'big infrastructure' and 'big finance' can support the continuous rise of the market.

Only the two core main lines of 'big infrastructure' and 'big finance' can have a macro trend of continuous improvement in fundamentals, gradual increase in future expectations, and stronger and stronger macro trends.

So, all things considered......

I think the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3600 points, which can only be a short-term rebound expected trend.

And not the counteroffensive trend of the so-called correction at the end of the move.

In the face of the current market rebound, we don't have to care too much, we can't be blinded by the appearance of the short-term rise in the market, we should always see the essence of the logic and the real core momentum of the market rise, and keep an eye on the transformation of the essential logic and core momentum.

As for our investment strategy and trading strategy.

For the time being, there is still no need to change.

Just stick to our previous investment strategy and trading strategy.

It will definitely be more appropriate to continue to maintain a low position level, patiently wait for the further adjustment of the market and the further clarity of the main line trend before re-opening a long position. ”

"Okay." Zhou Kan listened to Xu Shen's words, pondered for a while, nodded, and said, "Since the boss thinks so, then we will continue to adhere to the previous investment and trading strategy, continue to wait for the market to adjust, and see if the Shanghai Index can hold up at 3600 points." ”

"But ......," Zhou Kan paused, and then said, "Today's turnover in the two cities continues to explode, tens of billions more than yesterday, this should be a good phenomenon, right?" ”

Xu pondered for a while, and said: "It's a good phenomenon, but it can't be too optimistic, this position has a short period of volume, which can only show that after falling from 3800 points, many short-term set of capital groups, in this position, the initial stop loss smashed, that is to say, part of the market's panic disk, in a few consecutive days of killing, finally came out, resulting in a short period of time, the market's selling pressure has been reduced."

This is also the reason why the market trend rose rapidly at the end of today, and it rebounded out of the deep V.

However, even though the short-term selling power has weakened.

A large number of main capital groups that can be gathered in the core main line areas such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' have not stabilized, and 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' ...... The chip structure of these popular mainline areas is still in chaos.

Some people smashed the market and played, and some people intervened.

In general, the market is still in a stage of fierce change of hands and fierce long and short divergence.

The market really wants to usher in the end of the correction and usher in a reversal of the market trend.

Subsequently, it depends on the continuous change of quantity and energy.

If the market can form a rebound trend for a few days after the current volume, and then continue to shrink and fall, knowing that the shrinkage returns to the volume of six or seven hundred billion energy standards, the chips that should be out of the market are not firm all kinds of profit-making orders, unhedging orders, and stop-loss orders...... The floats are almost out.

Then, the market will really usher in the reversal opportunity of the end of the adjustment.

At present, I think the market has only completed the first stage of adjustment, and the second and third stages of adjustment have not yet arrived.

And, technically.

The Shanghai Composite Index has only just pulled back to near the 20-day line.

The number of profit orders accumulated by the continuous short squeeze in the front, as well as the number of unhedging orders accumulated in the accumulation, can be described as extremely huge.

This is the current adjustment level.

It is unlikely that such a large number of profit-taking chips will be completely cleared.

Whether in terms of time or space, the adjustment is not enough.

Moreover, according to my observation, the current disk, there is no shadow of the "Yu Hang Department" buying aggressively, the "Yu Hang Department" this share of funds, for the market disk cognition and grasp of the market timing, in the entire market, there should be no main capital institutions that can compare its benefits.

This share of funds, after the large-scale exit to take profits, did not move.

That shows from the side that this is unlikely to be the end of this round of market adjustment.

Also, in terms of time and space, if this is the end point of this round of market adjustment, then the main capital of the 'Yuhang system' does not need to build a large-scale position near 3800 points to take profit, quickly reduce the position, and prevent the extreme adjustment of the market.

After all, two or three hundred points, an adjustment range of less than 10%.

For a huge main funding institution like the 'Yuhang Department', it has little impact at all. ”

"That's just as well." Zhou Kan nodded and said, "There is really no movement in the capital of the 'Yuhang Department' at present, and this main capital is really strange...... Since the news of the central bank's interest rate cut and RRR cut landed a few days ago, there has really been no movement at all, but ...... We still have to look at the situation of the dragon and tiger lists in the two cities to be clear. ”

As he spoke, Zhou Kan's eyes turned to the list of dragons and tigers in the two cities.

I saw that in the list of dragons and tigers in the two cities disclosed, there was indeed no trace of any trading seats related to the main capital institution of the 'Yuhang Department'.

Moreover, in the list of dragons and tigers of the two cities.

The total trading volume of institutional buying and selling seats is still showing a trend of net selling.

On the contrary, the participation of tour capital is much more active than in the previous two days.

However, in general, according to the total turnover of funds and institutions, the total trading volume on the list of dragons and tigers in the two cities is still showing a large net selling trend.

This shows that the rebound at the end of today, the situation of the main funds selling, has not weakened significantly.

It also shows that the core of the two cities, the core of the main line area, the overall chip structure, there is no further concentration, of course...... It also shows that the sustainability of such a rebound market is obviously questionable.

"Alas, on the list of dragons and tigers in the two cities, there is still no movement of the main capital of the 'Yuhang Department'!" After the announcement of the list of dragons and tigers in the two cities, Chen Shen, the main fund product manager of the Pingyin Asset Management Trading Center in the Shenzhen market at this moment, sighed lightly and said, "There is neither a trace of selling nor a trace of buying, what is the current trading strategy and investment strategy of this main fund?" ”

The trend of the main capital of the 'Yuhang Department'.

It will greatly affect the investment strategies and trading strategies of many major funding institutions in the entire market.

After all, after the large-scale reduction and sell-off of the 'Yuhang system', the extreme impact on the market, before the main capital trend of the 'Yuhang system' was clarified, many of the main capital institutions that originally had the idea of increasing their positions or buying the bottom did not dare to act rashly.

This has led to 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media'...... These are the main areas of the main capital of the 'Yuhang Department' before.

The main capital sell-off has been heavier, and the disk has been under pressure.

"I think the main capital of the 'Yuhang Department' should still be in a wait-and-see attitude at present." Gao Yixiang, the head of the trading team, said, "The market has fallen 200 points from its high, and I don't see the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Department' continue to sell a large number of chips. ”

"But wait and see...... It's also a bearish behavior. Wang Jinglun, who is also the head of the trading team, said, "I can't figure out the specific investment strategy and trading strategy motivation of the main fund of the 'Yuhang system', and we will always be quite passive in the specific trading strategy change." ”

Gao Yixiang pondered for a moment and said, "Not really, right?" Looking at the performance of today's market market, it is obvious...... There are still signs of change in the main line of the market, as long as you don't touch 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', 'film and television media'...... In fact, there is no need to worry about the large-scale profit-taking and smashing of the main capital of the 'Yuhang system', which will cause the risk of extreme trends on the disk. (End of chapter)