Chapter 871: Differences in the Development of the Main Structure!
"You can't think of it that way." Wang Jinglun said, "'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry' these three core main lines, is the core of the main line to support the market, the adjustment of the three core main lines is not over, the panic selling sentiment of the disk, as well as the profits, unhedging chips are not cleared, then, the market will not be stable."
And the market can't stabilize, other main line areas.
Such as 'big consumption', 'medicine', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical'...... and other main line areas, there will be no sustainable market.
In this case, then we should avoid 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media'...... These 'Yuhang system's main line sectors with heavy positions in the early stage are also difficult to obtain any market excess returns in the layout of other main line plates. ”
"Is it possible that the style of the main line of the market has already undergone a corresponding change." Gao Yixiang did not agree with Wang Jinglun's judgment on the market trend at this stage, and said, "Obviously, in the current market trend, the net inflow direction of the main funds is flowing towards the less popular main areas such as 'consumption', 'medicine', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical', 'mobile Internet', and 'smart phone industry chain'."
And the concentrated flow of the main capital group.
It can fully explain the biased view of the main market funds for the main market trend.
In particular, the performance of the three core main areas of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain' has been significantly stronger than the market in recent days.
And in the case of continuous decline of several main lines such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry'.
These three core main areas have always had a certain intensity of money-making effect.
Through these signs...... It can fully explain that the main line of the market style is changing significantly, and the expected wind direction of the main capital group is also changing significantly. ”
Wang Jinglun thought for a while and responded: "Is it possible that this is not a change in the style of the main market, but only a short-term switch between the high and low of funds, as well as the rise of risk aversion of funds, and the reaction of the risk-off investment strategy?"
After all, from the relative position of the main lines of the market, as well as the chip structure.
'Medicine', 'Big Consumption', 'Mobile Internet', 'Smartphone Industry Chain', 'Non-ferrous Cycle', 'Petrochemical'...... These main areas of stagnation in the early stage of the market are relatively good because the adjustment time is long enough, the stock price position is low enough, and the chip structure is relatively good.
It has become a temporary hedging place for major capital groups in the short term.
However, to talk about the switch of the main market.
If we want to make 'medicine', 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', and 'smart phone industry chain'...... These core main lines have become popular main lines that can take over the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', and can support the market to continue to break through.
That alone has the advantage of chip structure, which is far from possible.
Without strong feedback on future expectations in the medium to long term, as well as potential fundamental shift expectations and the ability to explode in performance.
Then, the simple chip structure advantage can only be exchanged for a short-term over-falling rebound, and it cannot form a continuous main fund rush to intervene and continue to do long.
Any hype market that does not have the underlying logic support and the core logic support.
In fact, they are just flowers in the mirror, the moon in the water, even if it is hot in the short term, but in the medium and long term, there is absolutely no analysis and discussion value.
If we are institutional, it is mainly a short-term game.
Just like the various investors in the market, it is not wrong to pay attention to these over-falling and rebounding sectors and the trend of their popular stocks.
However, we are obviously not a private equity fund company focusing on short-term games, but a formal public fund company with tens of billions of capital.
In this way, we can't think about the market with the idea of floating capital, and make corresponding investment strategies and trading strategy choices. ”
"Are you saying that the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain' have certain logical defects and uncertainties in the medium and long-term expected logic and the ability to expect performance to explode, which is not in line with the idea of switching the main line?" Hearing Wang Jinglun's words, Gao Yixiang said, "I also have the ability to support the continued upward movement of the market index, and I can't undertake the main capital groups that have retreated from several core main areas such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry', as well as attract over-the-counter funds to enter the market?" ”
Wang Jinglun nodded and said: "Yes, I mean that, in terms of the underlying logic and expected logic, the lines of 'big consumption', 'smart phone industry chain' and 'mobile Internet' are obviously still more than one step behind the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'."
The underlying logic, as well as the logical flaws in performance expectations.
It will be difficult to attract long-term funds to enter the market, and it will be difficult to continue to attract a large number of main funds to undertake the market.
Without the undertaking of these main funds, it will be difficult for these core main areas to play enough continuous money-making effect.
And there is no sustained money-making effect.
Then, there will be fewer retail investors who will naturally follow the trend, and they will not be able to continue to open up the market space.
At least for now, I think if the market still has the momentum to continue to break through and the bull market can continue to perform...... Then the most suitable as the main line market, as well as the core main line plate that can carry many main capital groups, has to be the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry'.
In fact, under the current market trending pattern.
Only the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' have strong future logical expectations and future performance explosion expectations, and have huge advantages in macro news and policy. ”
"But at present, the internal bargaining chip structure of the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' has completely collapsed." Chen Shen heard the argument between the two, and at this time, he pondered for a while, and couldn't help but interject, "Moreover, as the core main fund in the market, the main capital of the 'Yuhang Department' has also been reduced on a large scale and taken profit on the three main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'."
Although it is said that the main capital of the 'Yuhang Department' has reduced and increased its positions.
This does not necessarily mean that the market is broad, and the consensus expectation view of the investor group is broad.
However, with the main capital group of 'Yuhang Department', it has a huge impact on the market trend, as well as the expected impact on the sentiment of a group of investors inside and outside the market.
This main force, in the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', etc., large-scale position reduction and profit-taking, can also explain some problems.
If the underlying logic of the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' is strong enough, and the future performance is expected to be explosive enough, then why should ...... the capital of 'Yuhang Department' carry out large-scale position reduction and profit taking in the days before or even earlier? ”
Wang Jinglun replied: "Although I don't know what the logic of large-scale position reduction and profit-taking is in the core main line of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' in the core main line of 'Yuhang Department', but according to my analysis, I can clearly see the underlying logic and future expectation logic of the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'.
As a result, chips in these main areas are scarce.
It has also caused a number of popular stocks and core concept stocks in these main line areas to overdraft their short- and medium-term expectations under the continuous attack of the gathered funds.
As a result, these stocks, in the case of good landing into bearish, there have been a large number of concentrated profit selling.
It has also caused this weak pattern trend for several consecutive days.
But I believe that these are only temporary, as long as the logic of medium and long-term expectations and performance explosion of these core main lines has not changed.
Well, as time progresses.
In these core main lines, related popular stocks and leading concept stocks will definitely be able to come out after the short-term adjustment.
What's more, for now......
There are many long-term large capital groups gathered in the two main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.
Not many are currently in a state of withdrawal. ”
"Well, I think there is some truth in what Jinglun said." I don't know when, when the three of them in the trading room were discussing the follow-up market trend and the motivation for switching the main line of the market, Liu Ziliang, general manager of Pingyin Asset Management Business, did not know when, but also walked into the trading room, and after listening to Wang Jinglun's discussion, he said with a smile, "In terms of the current fundamental situation of the main lines of the market, especially from the macro direction, it is true that only the future expectations of the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' are the best."
As far as I know, the current macro picture.
In terms of policy direction, the country's macroeconomic strategic planning for the 'Maritime Silk Road in the New Era' should still be unprecedented.
As for the implementation of the macro policy of 'reform and reorganization of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises'.
The dynamics are also quite large.
There is also the policy in the direction of 'strengthening the army through national defense,' which is basically quite a clear direction.
In addition, for the implementation of the follow-up registration system and the smooth implementation of IPO issuance, the state also needs a round of bull market to provide soil for the implementation of these policies.
It is also obvious that the turnover of the two cities has skyrocketed this year, and the scale of trillions of transactions has become the norm.
These are supposed to be open cards, right?
We all know that the surge in market turnover will provide expectations and impetus for brokerage companies and asset management companies in the industry to soar in performance, so why not be firmly optimistic about the main direction of 'big finance'?
On the whole, I don't think there is any problem with the underlying investment logic and future expectations of the three core main areas of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'.
As for the recent hot stocks related to these core main line areas, why have they fallen so sharply.
However, it is just that these core main lines, in the previous continuous short-term rally, are too overdrawn in the short and medium term expectations.
As for the main capital of the 'Yuhang system', it has an impact on these core main lines.
I think there will definitely be an impact in the short to medium term.
However, the long-term impact should be close to none, after all, no matter how this main capital operates, it cannot affect the expected changes in the macro side, as well as the changes in the situation of the fundamentals of the core main line, at most it can only affect the short- and medium-term sentiment.
But the emotional side of this thing......
Isn't it just something that can be put to good use for our organization?
As long as the underlying logic remains unchanged and future expectations remain unchanged, then why be affected by market sentiment and make irrational investment strategy choices and trading strategy choices? ”
"Mr. Liu is right." After listening to Liu Ziliang's words, Chen Shen thought about it carefully, and his thinking turned around in an instant, and said, "Since the underlying logic of the core main areas of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' and the expected logic of future performance explosions have not changed, and the expectations of fundamental changes and macro policy changes are still there."
Then, we really can't be kidnapped by the short-term sentiment of the market, and we can't follow the operation of everyone else.
As a result, the most suitable rebalancing opportunity in the market was missed. ”
"That's right." Liu Ziliang said with a smile, "As long as the pattern of the market bull market has not fundamentally changed, then in the continuous correction stage of the market, it is the most suitable opportunity to adjust positions." ”
"We ...... Is it to adjust positions in several core main areas such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry'? Gao Yixiang still didn't agree with Wang Jinglun and Liu Ziliang at the moment, and thought carefully for a while, and said, "Look at the situation, the market adjustment should not be over yet, if we start to change the trading strategy into an offensive situation at this time, in case the follow-up market index ...... All the way to around the 3200 level, what should I do? ”
Chen thought for a while and said: "At this time, it is natural that we cannot further improve the overall position level of our fund products, and we can only keep the dynamic position level unchanged as much as possible through fundamental analysis and intensive analysis of individual stocks, so as to achieve the weak and retain the strong, and replace the positions of many weak individual stocks." ”
"Well, I agree." Wang Jinglun said with a smile, "Keeping the dynamic position level unchanged, continuing to remove the weak and stay strong, and replacing the position should be the most suitable trading strategy at present."
Previously, due to the continuous shorting of the market, we did not buy very cheap high-quality stock chips in the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'.
Right now...... With the continuous adjustment of the market, as well as the continuous shock and downward trend of popular stocks in the three core main areas of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', we can finally slowly select chips at a relatively low position as we like, and lay out for the future! (End of chapter)