Chapter 451 [Current Situation of Real Estate and Banking]
In August, the Hong Kong government promulgated seven measures to crack down on property speculation, including stipulating that the temporary deposit is 5% of the property price, limiting each person to purchase one unit at a time at the time of property registration, prohibiting the use of authorisation for registration, and setting up a lottery procedure for property picking.
After the promulgation of the measures, although the sales process has improved, the speculation has not been significantly suppressed, and property prices continue to rise sharply.
In Lin Zuhui's view, the high property prices in Xiangjiang are due to the Hong Kong government. Every time the Hong Kong government puts official land in the peak period of real estate auction, it attracts real estate developers to compete for quotations, and finally speculates on a sky-high price, thus driving the rise of the entire market.
There is also forty percent of the credit, which is caused by the 'prevalence of speculation' in Xiangjiang, everyone comes to speculate on houses, which naturally makes real estate developers happy and harmonious, and it is strange that housing prices do not rise.
The remaining three successful workers are real estate developers. As a real estate developer, Lin Zuhui is well aware of the 'cunning' of real estate developers. There is a shortage of hundreds of thousands of housing units in Xiangjiang, but real estate developers will not increase the supply of horsepower.
For example, New Era Group, which has a large land bank, has a smaller supply of residential space this year, only about 2.6 million square feet (about 4,000 residential units).
This is called having land and not building a building, and having a building not for sale!
After all, the average price of residential buildings is more than 2,500 Hong Kong dollars, so the supply of 2.6 million square feet is equivalent to more than 6.5 billion sales, and the net profit from the development of real estate alone is more than 3.5 billion yuan (the profit is high because the land price is cheap).
Therefore, real estate developers will not increase the supply too much, not because they don't want to make more money, but because they plan for the long term!
Friday, August 9.
In Lin Zuhui's office, Chen Bin, Liang Zhenxun, and Chen Xiaofen, three senior real estate executives, were having a small meeting with their boss on the sofa.
"When will the Financial Secretary's term expire?" Lin Zuhui suddenly asked a 'digression'.
The three of them looked at each other, as if they hadn't paid attention to this issue, but Liang Zhenxun said uncertainly: "It seems to be November!" ”
Lin Zuhui did not blame the three of them, but said: "Remember to inquire, I seem to remember that it is November!" As the saying goes, there are three fires for a new official to take office, and the first fire for a new official in the Financial Secretary may be to crack down on property speculation! It is not necessary that the property market will fall, just beware of it. ”
The three of them nodded, this is very reasonable, it has already been cracked down in August, but obviously the strength is not enough! As for the current housing prices, there have been many criticisms in Xiangjiang.
Of course, most people in Xiangjiang still hope that the price of the house will rise, and Lin Zuhui knows this!
Chen Bin said tentatively: "What does the boss mean is that Huijing Garden sells some units before the new financial secretary?" ”
Lin Zuhui nodded and said, "Yes, but it's best not to advance too much, it's almost a week in advance!" In October, 3,200 yuan per square foot should be no problem. Calculate your time and don't run into the Financial Secretary's gun, though we are not afraid of him! ”
Huijing Garden plans to release more than 900 residential units this year, which is a big goal, so Lin Zuhui takes special care. As for the sale of those two or three hundred residences, it will not attract much attention.
The reason why this is so is because a large part of real estate sales are purchased by speculators!
"Okay, we'll have to time it!"
More than 900 residential units, equivalent to more than 2% of this year's supply chain, need to be carefully planned, it is impossible to decide to sell immediately, you can organize the sale. Therefore, it is necessary to lay out in advance.
At present, New Era Group also has a number of large-scale housing estate projects in its hands, such as Sceneway Garden (4,100 residential units), Laguna Verde (4,750 residential units, all of which were vacated by Hok Yuen Power Plant in 1992 and completed before 98), Another House (1,900 low-rise high-end residential buildings, sold in batches in '92 and completed in '95), and more than 6,000 residential units in two large housing estates in Tsuen Wan (all completed before '98)
Huijing Garden is the first to go on sale, and even so, it is expected to earn nearly 10 billion, not to mention the later projects!
Damn real estate developers!
Then, Lin Zuhui thought about the problem, and the three of them didn't dare to disturb the boss.
They know that the boss is the commander of the New Era Group, and every decision he makes is the fundamental driving force for the growth of the group. The reason why the New Era Group is developing so fast is because the boss's decision-making is very fine, the supply every year, when to slow down the number of real estate starts, when to increase sales, etc., these are the details of the victory of the New Era Group.
In fact, Lin Zuhui is considering: should he let New Era Group invest in foreign exchange, or let New Era Group invest in Citibank's shares (purchased in the secondary market)?
At present, USD/JPY has fallen to 136.5 points after reaching 142 points in mid-June, and it is still too late to sell short!
As for the short selling of USD/JPY invested by Hengjin, the average short selling point is already 139.3 points, with a total investment of 1.5 billion Hong Kong dollars plus 20 times leverage, which has already generated profits.
Citibank's stock is currently trading at a little bit of $9 and looks likely to fall below $9 per share. If New Era Group is asked to invest 100 million US dollars, the annual income will definitely be very high, possibly more than 40%. It seems that before the bubble crisis, Citibank had returned more than 30 times, more than a dozen times the return of Wells Fargo.
If it weren't for Lin Zuhui's financial arrangements, it would not be the turn of the New Era Group. Plus, he already has a large stake in Citibank stock.
"Director Liang, you can arrange to take out $100 million to invest in securities in the United States! When you're ready, let me know! ”
"Okay, boss!"
Everyone has become accustomed to the style of the boss, and investing in financial products has always been done by New Era Group. As for the investment of 800 million Hong Kong dollars, it is not a big investment.
Lin Zuhui's idea is very simple, next year he plans to spend 1 billion Hong Kong dollars to buy office buildings in the United States, and use a down payment of 20% to buy office buildings worth 5 billion, which is roughly equivalent to five buildings of more than 300,000 square feet in Manhattan, New York.
This price is only half of the price of Central, because office buildings in the United States have fallen to a low point in the past two years.
After two months of steady operation, Lin Zuhui was pleasantly surprised to find that China Commercial Bank (Hong Kong) has absorbed more than 1 billion Hong Kong dollars in deposits, although more than 200 million of them are supported by friends and partners, but it is enough to shock the entire industry.
The reason is simple, the credibility of China Commercial Bank (Hong Kong) itself was damaged more than two months ago, and the monthly deposits of nearly 400 million yuan are almost the level of the Bank of East Asia.
If you analyze it carefully, there are three reasons for this brilliance:
First, Lin Zuhui's own celebrity effect, he is the richest Chinese in the world, and in the eyes of Hong Kong people, he is the mastermind of a large consortium with strong financial strength, and his reputation is very good.
Second, Lin Zuhui's performance in the 'national business incident' has attracted the admiration of the public and made them feel that their credibility is guaranteed.
Third, the "saving money and sending cooking oil" scheme has been very successful. With a deposit of 20,000 Hong Kong dollars, you can get a barrel of cooking oil for only one year, which increases the interest in disguise. In this way, you can not offend your peers, but also pull in the deposit.
Lin Zuhui did not intend to let the China Commercial Bank (Hong Kong) develop too fast, but asked for a word 'stability', only stability, he bought 100% of the 'overseas trust bank' in the hands of the Hong Kong government.
Before the sale of the Overseas Trust Bank, the Hong Kong government will send commissioners from the Banking Regulatory Office and HSBC (the quasi-central bank) to conduct an audit, and only when the performance is 'stable and stable', the Hong Kong government will be assured to hand over the 'Overseas Trust Bank' to Lam Cho-fai.
The reason is actually very simple, the Hong Kong government is also worried that the entrusted non-people will run on again. A bank run is not terrible, but it is afraid of a 'multi-meter bone effect', which may even threaten the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar (although it is a fixed peg, it may still cause the Hong Kong dollar to be 'worthless').
in the conference room.
Lin Zuhui continued: "At present, we are still stable and overriding everything, maintaining sufficient cash flow to cope with possible unexpected situations! Personally, I can still provide 2 billion Hong Kong dollars in cash as a backing at any time. ”
The executives were really surprised how much cash this boss had! Everyone in Hong Kong knows that in addition to owning shares in several listed companies, Mr. Lin Cho-fai also owns a private investment company, which is estimated to have assets of tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars.
Of course, this is nothing, after all, Li Chaoren's private investment also has tens of billions; However, Li Chaoren's private investments are all in debt, while Lam's private investment company has only 1.6 billion Hong Kong dollars in debt (invested in Citibank).
What really shocked Hong Kong people was that Lin Zuhui took out 5 billion Hong Kong dollars in cash, which is more powerful! After all, the personal investments of Li Chaoren, Lee Shau Kee, and Zheng Yutong are almost all completed by using a large number of loans.
He Changhong said seriously: "The original more than 5,000 depositors have very strong confidence in us. After some people's deposits expired, they took the initiative to deposit them in our bank again, and we also publicized them through the media. ”
Lin Zuhui nodded with satisfaction, this move is really good!
"What about bad debt recovery?" Lin Zuhui asked.
MD, it's annoying to think about it, some overseas loans have been recovered, and I have met a lot of old people. This made Lin Zuhui indignant, and he himself reached an amicable agreement with the creditor to pay the creditor's debt in batches, which was quite hearty.
On the contrary, it is the borrower who owes money to the National Commercial Bank, and he always encounters old men.
"There are a few bad debts, and the borrower saw that we were going to file a lawsuit, and offered to repay them in batches, but asked for interest reduction!" He Changhong said.
"Promise them, but let them sign a formal repayment agreement!"
It's not a big deal, it's time-consuming and laborious to litigate with those overseas borrowers, and it's better not to do it until it's a last resort! Back then, Lin Zuhui himself asked the four banks in Macau to directly cut off 90% of the principal, but that was the reason why the company was on the verge of bankruptcy and could not be repaid.
Through discussions with senior management, Lin Zuhui felt that everything was on the right track for China Commercial Bank (Hong Kong): deposits were stable, continued to increase, original depositors chose to trust, bad debts were recovered optimistically, and bondholders did not make trouble.
In addition to this, the disbursement of loans has also begun to proceed in an orderly manner. Thanks to Lin Zuhui's financial guarantee, the China Commercial Bank can make a profit by issuing 'extraordinary loans' according to the amount of the guarantee.
At this meeting, Lin Zuhui did not talk much about development, but at most talked about stability. Even if the overseas trust is acquired and integrated in the future, he will not let the bank develop by leaps and bounds.
The fundamental purpose of his bank is to facilitate his own development of 'investment bank', so that in the future, in international financial products, information will be more sensitive and there will be more transaction channels.