Chapter 589 Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Process

Zhu Jingyuan looked at the people around him, and the reaction they showed to enter the state of thinking showed that he had made them all interested.

Then, Zhu Jingyuan himself also had a different kind of thinking.

When talking about so many game themes, Zhu Jingyuan suddenly thought of game content management.

That is, what content can be done, what content can't be done, and what kind of content can be sold to what kind of people.

For example, the grading system in Europe and the United States in the previous life.

Zhu Jingyuan immediately thought of content management in films.

The things in the film industry are all done by my grandfather, and I basically haven't participated in this process.

After his grandfather died, no one will be watching this industry specifically, and maybe there will be a lot of cattle and horses at any time.

It's time for the emperor to go and guide him specifically.

People in this era certainly can't imagine the impact that may occur in society when education becomes more widespread and the Internet is fully rolled out.

When all kinds of people in the folk have the opportunity to appear in front of the public, what kind of moths can they make.

What I have to do as a person from the past is to make restrictions in advance, draw rules and boundaries for what they may do, and not just mess around.

, poetry, opera, movies, and games should be very similar and should be as unified as possible.

The first to be contacted by ordinary people and have an impact is likely to be on the Internet, and it should also be arranged in advance.

So Zhu Jingyuan instructed Niu Jian, a university scholar around him, to send him a notice back and let the Ministry of Rites have a meeting in the afternoon of the Wenhua Palace.

Then Zhu Jingyuan continued to deal with the matter in front of him and continued to understand the achievements of the semiconductor industry in recent years.

After the situation was almost over, Zhu Jingyuan asked everyone to gather in the lobby of the Sheji warehouse and held a reward and plan briefing.

All of the people involved are doing their jobs, and there is no opportunity to move up their positions directly.

However, for managers, this kind of tackling key problems will accumulate qualifications.

Supervisors who have been in charge of pioneering projects will be given higher priority in the ranking of promotions in the future.

Therefore, Zhu Jingyuan first issued a commemorative certificate, and also asked the Ministry of Rites to list a list of "semiconductor industry pioneers" for archiving.

At the same time, for all ordinary workers, more tangible rewards should be given.

That is, the upgrade and direct bonus of Yulu.

After distributing the rewards, Zhu Jingyuan summoned the main person in charge to a conference room and began to arrange the follow-up new tasks.

Arrange the direction and plan for the next stage of the semiconductor industry.

The most critical thing is, of course, the process.

Only when the process is improved can more transistors be stacked in a limited space, and it is possible to rapidly improve the performance of chips.

Zhu Jingyuan is not going to mention Moore's Law, and he is not going to say a conclusive conclusion about how long it will take for transistors to double.

Because Moore's Law is not a "law" in itself in the first place.

Gordon Moore summarized the situation of the semiconductor industry at that time, and then made predictions or plans for future development according to the summary.

But his prediction and planning have become the industry standard to some extent.

At the same time, it is also an industry slogan.

The semiconductor industry originated in the business society of the United States, and the initial industry environment can be said to be very chaotic.

There is no unified industry standard, there is no standardized industrial chain, and the competition of manufacturers is equally chaotic.

Moore's conclusion that "transistors per unit area doubles every two years" slowly became the industry standard with the huge influence of Intel.

First of all, Intel itself develops a follow-up production and upgrade plan on a two-year basis.

Microprocessors are inherently at the heart of the entire semiconductor industry.

Downstream semiconductor manufacturers that cooperate with Intel must cooperate with Intel's production and upgrade plans.

They want to fulfill the order at the most appropriate time.

You can only make your own production and upgrade plan according to the same time node as Intel, so that your rhythm can be aligned with Intel.

These vendors will influence each other, and the vendors who join later will also be affected.

The end result is that the vast majority of manufacturers in the entire industry will complete a round of production and upgrade plans on a two-year cycle by default.

Otherwise, you can't keep up with the rhythm of others, or others can't keep up with your own rhythm.

In either case, it can lead to supply chain problems, products that are not produced on time, or parts of the parts that are produced and other parts that are produced.

In fact, this is a continuous cycle of "two-year plan", which has gradually expanded to the whole industry.

If there are top upstream manufacturers like Intel in other specific industries, they can have absolute influence in the industry.

Other upstream and downstream manufacturers have to cooperate with his production plan.

It is also likely that similar "industry laws" actually exist within the industry.

Because it's really a supply chain cycle.

But this non-standard law is certainly useful, and very useful.

Everyone upgrades once every two years, using a relatively similar and large enough upgrade range, which can be very convenient to cooperate with each other.

All manufacturers can coordinate and cooperate relatively smoothly, and the development of the entire industry will not be chaotic.

It can also urge lagging manufacturers to catch up with the pace of the entire industry as much as possible.

In the era of the semiconductor industry, the semiconductor and processor industries in the blue ocean state are highly competitive and chaotic.

With a fixed two-year Moore plan, Intel has guided a series of downstream manufacturers into their own rhythm.

Then, with a complete and stable supply chain system, Intel finally broke out of the encirclement and gained a firm foothold.

The result is Intel the absolute industry leader in the entire microprocessor field.

This, in turn, keeps Moore's Law going.

This two-year Moore plan can also form a huge investment attraction.

If these semiconductor manufacturers introduce their technology and assumptions to traditional investors, traditional investors may be confused.

But now they are saying: our products are upgraded every two years, the performance is doubled in two years, and the cost is halved in two years.

This is very similar to the "goal" of those investment information sessions.

Everybody can understand it.

The most important thing is that the development and upgrading speed of the entire industry can indeed accomplish their declared goals.

The density of transistors can really double in two years.

They can even maintain this rate of upgrade for decades.

This convinces all inexperienced investors that investing in this industry will never lose money.

Therefore, although Moore's Law is not a scientific law, it is only a summary of experience and a cycle of development planning, but it plays the role of a law.

It has greatly promoted the sustainable and stable development of the semiconductor industry and expanded the influence of the semiconductor industry.

A de facto industry development standard has been formed.

So the current Da Ming?

Daming already has a variety of plans, and there is no need to shout the slogan of a two-year plan.

At the same time, the entire semiconductor industry of Daming is completely under the complete control of the Ming royal family and the imperial court.

All vendors are in the same system, and they are naturally working with each other.

There's no need to shout slogans to keep everyone in sync.

Finally, Moore is the supply chain cycle and industry slogan, and it has largely remained so for decades.

Then this speed is not the limit of the speed of upgrading the semiconductor industry.

There must be a margin.

At the very least, Intel itself clearly has a margin over the course of four decades.

Otherwise, Intel would not have the nickname of a toothpaste factory.

Historically, Moore put forward the slogan in 1965, which doubled in a year.

Later, it may have been found that this speed was difficult to achieve, or other manufacturers might not be able to keep up, so it was changed to a doubling in two years in 1975.

By 1997, he had made another unofficial compromise correction that had doubled in a year and a half.

In fact, in the 40 years from the 70s to the beginning of the new century, the number of transistors doubled in two years.

Daming's current situation is very different from another world.

The semiconductor industry is directly promoted by the Ming Emperor and the imperial court, and both funds and policies are completely open to supply.

The corresponding personnel do not need to think about finding a way to attract investment.

There are also new industry groups that unify and coordinate the rhythm of R&D and production, and there is no need to waste time on the coordination of multi-vendor relationships.

The key is the correct direction directly given by the Ming Emperor.

Therefore, Daming has the opportunity to directly achieve the goal of doubling the number of transistors per unit area a year.

In this internal meeting, Zhu Jingyuan listed all the technical directions that he knew might be effective based on his experience in his previous life.

Let Wang Lai arrange multiple groups of personnel to tackle these technologies separately.

Firstly, the design logic of the step-by-step lithography machine is proposed, and the technical direction of miniature lithography is proposed.

In the original lithography process, the accuracy of the master plate directly produced by physical and mechanical means has its limits and is relatively difficult to improve.

However, smaller chips can be produced by projection scaling with curved lenses and large templates.

Optical manufacturers are required to cooperate in the development of higher-precision lenses.

Then the logic of immersion lithography technology is directly proposed, so that craftsmen can directly go in the direction of immersion lithography from the beginning.

According to the logic of the lithography machine, the shorter the wavelength of the light source, the smaller the chip can be produced.

But it can't be infinitely short, as the shortest X-rays will pass directly through the object, making it impossible to scale the drawing through lenses and reflections.

It can only be used in a small number of semiconductor products with special needs after the process level has been greatly improved.

The upgrading process of conventional light sources is the process of constantly looking for light sources that are infinitely close to X-rays, but cannot appear X-ray phenomena.

The earliest light source of lithography machine was visible blue light, with a wavelength of 450 nanometers, and a micron-scale process was realized.

In the era of miniature lithography, it quickly shifted to the era of invisible ultraviolet light.

The wavelength was reduced to 365 nm, enabling a process from 800 nm to 280 nm.

After that, for a long time, the wavelength was continuously shortened in the range of ultraviolet light.

Until the 193nm node, it can be used to produce chips from 280nm to 65nm.

If we had continued in this direction, we would have looked for a light source with a wavelength of 157 nanometers and started producing chips of 45 nanometers and below.

However, at that time, the light source development company encountered difficulties in developing a light source with a wavelength of 157 nanometers, or a bottleneck.

At that time, Nikon, the leader of the lithography machine industry, had been on the 157-nanometer light source for a long time.

And TSMC's Lin Benjian found another direction.

Light is refracted when it enters the water, and the wavelength of the light source is shortened accordingly.

So after 193 nanometers of light passes through a layer of water, it has the effect of a 134 nanometer wavelength light source.

As a result, TSMC and Asmail cooperated to develop an immersion lithography machine with the goal of the direction proposed by Lin Benjian.

It means soaking in water for photolithography.

The 193-nanometer light source was continued to be used to promote the chip manufacturing process from 45 nanometers, and the final limit was 7 nanometers.

It wasn't until it went deep into the 5nm process range that the 193nm deep ultraviolet light source came to an end.

The semiconductor industry has had to try to replace the 13.5 nanometer extreme ultraviolet light source.

Therefore, for Daming, of course, we can use the immersion lithography technology as soon as possible, but we must also continue to work hard in the research of new light sources.

In addition, all the successful paths that have been used in previous lives are, of course, the paths that have been determined to be feasible.

The path that was not taken in a previous life is not necessarily unfeasible.

With the resources of the current Ming Dynasty, there have been other plans for future generations, and the Ministry of Industry can also choose to try.

Maybe we can achieve better results than the original road?

For example, the "synchrotron radiation light source" facility, as a scientific research facility in other aspects, is based on the principle that it can emit light of various wavelengths.

This includes extreme ultraviolet light, which is the closest thing to X-rays.

In fact, in the early days of lithography machine technology verification, synchrotron radiation light sources were also used for research and verification.

However, the nature of synchrotron radiation light sources is doomed to be difficult to commercialize.

Daming can also try to build a large-scale synchrotron radiation light source, and discuss the feasibility of various light sources and lithography on its basis and principle.

At the same time, it can continue to operate as a scientific research equipment.

There are other more specific details, such as the copper wire process for improved performance, the two-piece table design for increased efficiency, and so on.

Zhu Jingyuan listed everything he could think of in turn as his uncertain assumptions.

Let the Ministry of Industry and the Semiconductor Department arrange personnel to do research and verification.

On this basis, Zhu Jingyuan put forward more specific R&D goals for the Ministry of Industry, the Semiconductor Department, and craftsmen.

The first is the most important and core process and CPU.

Within two years, the popularization and mass production of the one-micron process will be completed, and the development of the next generation of general-purpose microprocessors will be completed at the same time.

The performance target for the new processing is at least 10 million calculations per second.

It is best to reach 50 million beats per second, which is close to 386 or even 486, or the level of the first generation of PS consoles.

At the same time, it is required that it must be a 64-bit microprocessor, and the development code name is therefore directly determined to be 64.

According to Zhu Jingyuan's plan, after the development of the 64-bit processor is completed, it will begin to actively promote to the civilian market and take the initiative to develop more civilian equipment.

The way Daming's semiconductor industry is constructed is completely different from the historical United States.

As a commercial society, even if it is an official-led project, the military usually pays for the technology and allows private manufacturers to complete the product development.

The advantages of this model are very clear.

A similar product to the end product, as well as the technology generated during the development process, can be brought to the civilian market faster.

There will be many businessmen who will do everything possible to push their goods to anyone who has purchasing power, which is very conducive to the rapid promotion of new products.

There is no obvious limit to their theoretical profits.

In many cases, this kind of market operation is very close to a state of full competition.

But the disadvantages are just as obvious.

There will be all kinds of chaos in the competition of the blue ocean market without guidance.

It is easy for bad money to drive out good money, and there may even be a situation where imitators kill the original.

It usually takes a long time to fight, and when there are a few manufacturers with absolute advantages, they unite to barely control most of the market.

Only then can it be possible to form a relatively stable order and industry standards.

Because when the market is in a state of chaos, manufacturers are basically not convinced by anyone.

Any single manufacturer that has no advantage and wants to dominate the standards in the industry, there may be other manufacturers who oppose and make trouble.

Prior to this, officials who did not directly control industry resources did not have the ability to require all manufacturers to implement a certain standard.

But by this time, an oligopoly or even an absolute monopoly should have been formed.

The fully competitive state of the market no longer exists.

For example, after Intel's Moore's Law became the industry standard, all vendors had to make development plans on a two-year cycle.

Even the imperial court's anti-monopoly law may no longer be able to shake the position of these monopoly manufacturers.

The fines were not painful for them, and the imperial court did not yet have the ability to really shut them down completely.

In Zhu Jingyuan's memory, similar things have been repeated many times.

After the second industrial revolution, in an environment of full competition without restrictions, it is very easy to give birth to oligarchs or even absolute monopolies.

The American court could do nothing about Intel, Microsoft, Qualcomm.

In the computer industry, although Intel, amd, and nvidia are three companies, they have cross-equity and patent cross-licensing with each other.

They will also play a double reed between them as a matter of course, relying on their monopoly position to reap huge profits alternately.

In fact, in the country's view, it is not impossible to harvest high profits, the key is that after the slowdown in competition, technological progress has also slowed down.

You go back and forth to squeeze toothpaste, and it will become the norm in the market.

This is unacceptable.

Daming's semiconductors industry is completely officially dominated and completed by official institutions and manufacturers.

At present, there is no direct participation of any private manufacturers.

Zhu Jingyuan, as the final decision-maker, would not have been affected if he had not taken the initiative to put relevant products on the civilian market.

The average person may not even know that something related exists.

The disadvantages of this model are certainly obvious.

In the early days, the market competition was insufficient, and there was no theoretically unlimited commercial profit drive, and developers were not highly motivated to upgrade and promote their products.

When official manufacturers want to promote to the private sector, it also takes time and cost to make private manufacturers and users accept.

Of course, the advantage of this model is also obvious, that is, the controllability of technology and standards.

Zhu Jingyuan's natural plan is to cultivate and plan the industry's mainstream products and industry standards to a relatively mature state.

At the same time, wait until the products of official manufacturers can meet the needs of the imperial court and government-run manufacturers, and then promote them to the unrestricted private market at the right time.

When private manufacturers participate in this industry, the relevant standards and norms of the entire industry have been determined.

Moreover, the official body that implements the relevant standards has the absolute initiative.

Basic patents, typical designs, standard solutions, and general systems will all be in the hands of the imperial court, government-run consortia, and royal industries.

If private manufacturers want to join this industry, they must do things in accordance with the industry standards that have been formed.

Just like Zhu Jingyuan did when he started in the aviation industry.

The most ideal result is to achieve benign and full competition after the industry threshold is relaxed.

In reality, of course, there can be no absolute perfect result, but it is obviously correct to go in the direction of seeking it.

After the microprocessor, the most important is the ledger chip, that is, the DRAM memory chip.

It is also required to complete the mass production of 256,000 words of chips within two years, which is 256K according to the 1024 base system, which is equivalent to 512KB in the previous life.

The second is to develop the first generation of dedicated image, audio, and network processing chips within two years, that is, graphics cards, sound cards, and network cards.

Then there are hard drives with larger capacity and higher storage density, striving to increase the capacity to one billion words (1G).

Finally, several new teams will be set up to complete the technical verification related to optical discs, flash memory, digital cameras, and LCD screens, and come up with basic products.

(End of chapter)