It's mid-September.

Quietly living in the villa, Tian Jiayi found Fang Hong when he came back from the company, and also brought back a piece of information: "In the past few days, I have sorted out the estimated data of the domestic flow of international hot money in the past 20 years, and the main weight of the estimation caliber is the materials of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the Bureau of Statistics, combined with our internal data integration. ”

Putting the sorted materials in front of Fang Hong, Tian Jiayi added: "According to the statistical data, since the reform of the foreign exchange management system in 94, the flow of international hot money in the mainland has shown a relatively obvious cyclical characteristic. In the eight years from '94 to '02, the mainland's economic growth was relatively stable, with an average GDP growth rate of 9 percentage points, and it was hit by the Asian financial crisis, with a total net outflow of $400 billion in hot money. ”

"In the seven years from 03 to 10, the domestic economy has generally shown a momentum of rapid development after joining the WTO, with an average GDP growth rate of 11% at this stage, and at the same time, the unilateral appreciation of the RMB is expected and is expected to be strengthened, with a total net inflow of about 300 billion US dollars."

Tian Jiayi, who paused for a moment, pondered his thoughts and continued: "From 94 to 10, in the long-term period of about 15 years, the net outflow of hot money in the early stage is roughly offset by the net inflow of hot money in recent years, showing a net outflow of about 100 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.5% of the increase in foreign exchange reserves in the same period, but this is the data after removing the profit value of Qunxing Capital in last year's anti-cutting of Wall Street. ”

Fang Hong picked up the materials and browsed silently.

The so-called hot money refers to international travel funds and short-term speculative funds, which are an important source of global financial turmoil and even financial crises.

This hot money roams around the world, where it is profitable, and they are ruthlessly strangled around the world to pump up asset bubbles, grab huge profits, and then move on to the next target.

After the asset bubble of the previous target bursts and is seriously over-falling, they will turn back and buy some core high-quality assets that have followed the collapse at very low prices, so as to achieve repeated harvesting, eating the shorts and eating the longs.

And this also has a surprising resonance effect with the tidal circulation cycle of the US dollar.

This kind of hot money is not just as simple as entering the stock market, but also the foreign exchange market, bond market, property market, and entities are pervasive. It can be said that where the wind can blow, where the water can seep in, the hot money is the same as the wind and water.

International speculators cannot brazenly attack places like the big eastern countries that have implemented foreign exchange control and whose financial markets have not been developed to a high degree in the past, but the nature of capital is profit-seeking, and as long as there is an opportunity to make huge profits, they will not give up lightly.

Fang Hong asked while browsing the materials: "As of the first half of this year, what is the approximate level of the inflow of hot money?" ”

Tian Jiayi replied: "The specific estimate is unknown, but one thing is certain, that is, hot money is flowing in rapidly during this period, and the scale is very amazing, and the overall will not be less than 1.5 trillion US dollars." ”

Fang Hong said to himself: "1.5 trillion ......"

The first is false trade, where international hot money colludes with mainland buyers to reach a false agreement to import goods from the mainland, but they don't actually import goods, or they only import some very low-value goods, and then throw them directly into the sea after going to sea, and at the same time, they can also falsely report the price that is much higher than the actual value of the goods, and then transfer the funds to the mainland.

Then there is the false investment or false credit, where foreign speculators set up companies in the mainland and inject money into the companies, but these funds are not used for actual production, but for speculation in various assets, and the same is true for false credit.

Then through the underground bank, international investors can pay US dollars in HK and then withdraw RMB in the mainland, or they can pay RMB in the mainland and exchange US dollars in Hong Kong. In this process, although there is no actual cross-border flow of funds, the money that wants to come in comes in, and the money that wants to go out also goes out.

In addition, there is currency smuggling, where international speculators use the entry of people or goods to bring US dollars into the hinterland, or through smuggling, directly transport US dollars into the hinterland, which is relatively risky, but as long as the benefits are large enough, there are still people who dare to take risks.

There are also some international capitals that will take advantage of the banks in Hong Kong to allow the exchange of 20,000 Hong Kong dollars per day into RMB, remittance of 80,000 yuan to mainland banks, and the exchange quota of 50,000 US dollars per person per year in the mainland, so as to enter and exit the country by means of zero.

These channels or means are also some common ways of enthusiasm entering and leaving the country, and it can be said that especially in the current flow of enthusiasm, it has reached the level of pervasiveness and unscrupulous means.

Because the wind of US dollar interest rate hikes has been blowing for three quarters, the US dollar tidal circulation harvest has entered the interest rate hike cycle is getting closer and closer, and there is not much time left for them, so they are also rapidly deploying.

At the end, Fang Hong put down the materials in his hand and said to himself: "Objectively speaking, the rapid growth in the past 30 years, there are huge investment opportunities in China, and the return on the influx of foreign capital is reasonable, and there is no problem to leave with a reasonable profit report." However, if they want to engage in capital plunder, I can't tolerate it, so I can't ignore it, even if I take 10,000 steps back and talk about this meat, it will rot in my own pot and stay in my own land, even if it is rotten, I can fatten my own land. ”

In the past 30 years, it has experienced rapid growth, which is in stark contrast to developed countries, and the domestic property market and stock market are likely to grow significantly.

In this case, the US dollar comes in and is exchanged for RMB, speculating in real estate and stocks, and it is very likely to make huge profits, and if the RMB appreciates against the US dollar later, it can make a big profit again, and obtain double benefits from asset price appreciation and exchange rate.

In the years since 2003, the average annual rate of return on housing prices in the mainland's major first-tier cities has reached 20 to 50 percent, compared with only about 6 percent in North America and about 4 percent in the small book next door.

In the past few years, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 8 to 1, that is, 1 US dollar can be exchanged for 8 yuan. Suppose a foreign-funded institution converts US$1 billion into RMB8 billion to invest in real estate, and then suppose that housing prices rise sharply and double this year, at this time foreign investors sell their houses and cash out 16 billion yuan, and intend to exchange them back for US dollars.

If the exchange rate of 8 to 1 at the time of entry, 16 billion yuan can only be exchanged for 2 billion US dollars, but this year, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar once appreciated to 6 to 1, and according to this exchange rate, 16 billion yuan can be exchanged for 2.66 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to 660 million US dollars more.

Then the actual profit of this foreign institution is not only the doubling of the price of the house, but also the profit of the exchange rate difference, and the actual rate of return is not +100%, but more than +160%.

Driven by international capital, buyers and promoters, and forces from all sides, the stock market and property market have risen sharply, and international capital has also made huge profits and passed on the risks to thousands of ordinary people.

When the property market and stock market turn cold, they enter other markets, such as the private lending market, or the so-called Internet finance such as "Pi Lupi", or simply lie in financial institutions to earn more than 10% of stable income.

From 2003 to this year, the mainland's economy has grown rapidly, the property market has continued to rise sharply, the stock market has also ushered in two big bull markets, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated from 8 to about 6 this year, making a lot of money.

International hot money has also gone through a complete cycle of inflow and outflow during this period, and it is currently in the outflow stage.

……

(PS: A wave of ...... broke out today)