When I first came in, I exchanged 1 US dollar for 8 yuan for you, but now I am leaving, not only will I make a lot of money, but I will also ask you for 6 yuan to exchange 1 US dollar for 1 US dollar.

The foreign trade surplus has been rising year after year, and they continue to earn dollars outside, but the foreign exchange they earn has been exchanged by them like this, and the surplus cannot be changed like this, which is also one of the important reasons why the surplus is so large every year and the foreign exchange reserves cannot rise.

It is equivalent to working for nothing, not to mention, but also polluting their own environment, and when the time comes, they will have to pay for the environment, and this money will definitely have to be paid by themselves, they will not pay this money, and they will in turn accuse you of destroying the earth's environment.

In addition, there is also a large number of runren and immigrants who have also consumed a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, and they have left the renminbi in the mainland and exchanged it for dollars and ran out.

There are also those who travel abroad, as well as those who study abroad, and the families who can study abroad are quite solid, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars is considered a conservative number, and one million international students going out is equivalent to consuming hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign exchange.

With such a consumption capacity, foreign exchange reserves can still be maintained at the scale of three or four trillion US dollars, which is already an incredible miracle.

But if you change countries, foreign exchange will long ago dry up and collapse.

The loss is that the economy is in an incremental situation of rapid growth, and the foreign trade surplus has been rising year after year, and it is barely offset by the continuous earning of more dollars than such a large-scale consumption.

At the end, Fang Hong looked at the beautiful assistant and asked, "What about the outflow data of domestic capital?" ”

"The outflow of domestic capital has also sorted out a piece of material." Tian Jiayi immediately took out another document, she opened the document and looked at it and replied: "One is the overseas investment of the rich people in the mainland, and the other is the transfer of money." ”

Tian Jiayi looked at the materials and said in an orderly manner: "The rich people in the mainland are accelerating the layout of overseas investment in recent years, and the value of their overseas real estate alone is often billions of yuan. Taking this year as an example, a mainland tycoon spent 770 million yuan to buy a mansion in the most expensive rich street in England, and paid 92 million yuan in taxes to Yingguo alone, setting a new record for the local stamp duty on house purchases. ”

"Another example is that a wealthy mainland man spent $140 million in North America to buy a Brandon Park the size of 18 West Lake." Tian Jiayi raised his eyes to Fang Hong and added: "Data shows that in the five years from 2010 to the present, people from all walks of life in China have invested at least $110 billion in the North American property market alone, becoming the largest foreign buyer in the North American property market." ”

With the current economic growth slowdown, coupled with the recovery of the North American economy and the start of interest rate hikes, domestic capital began to flow out on a large scale in the second half of last year.

This year, the exodus is even more frenzied.

The frenzied "buying, buying, buying" of many mainland tycoons overseas has further increased the pressure on the renminbi to depreciate.

After a while, Tian Jiayi looked at the document again and said: "Another major domestic outflow of the main force is accompanied by the transfer, combined with the statistics bureau and the exit and entry bureau of the data caliber estimates, the first three quarters of this year the number of people have reached 7 million, according to this trend we estimate that the scale of the transfer in 2015 will exceed 10 million." ”

Tian Jiayi closed the materials and looked at Fang Hong and added: "Immigrants from the mainland are mainly divided into four categories: study abroad transfer, business investment transfer, skilled worker transfer, and employment transfer, and the number of students studying abroad accounts for a considerable proportion. ”

The birth of every emigrant means that they have become a potential exchange target, and they have the expectation of selling their mainland RMB assets into foreign currencies and outflowing.

The wealth of most immigrants is not comparable to that of the rich, but it is not enough to support the size of the group.

This year's foreign exchange reserves have been sharply reduced, but the scale is still 4 trillion US dollars, thanks to the fact that Qunxing Capital made a lot of money last year, and if this part of foreign exchange is removed, the data should be 3.3 trillion US dollars.

Another important shift this year is that foreign exchange reserves have fallen for the first time in decades, with a significant drop of $200 billion as of last month.

Especially in the second half of this year, the stock market has plummeted, the foreign exchange market has also plummeted, the economic growth rate has slowed down, and the US dollar interest rate hike is expected to accelerate the outflow of domestic capital.

A series of factors seem to be sending a signal that the renminbi exchange rate may be about to reverse and that the time is ripe for shorting the renminbi.

In this case, the international bears, even if they did not meet their expectations in the stock market, were once again excited.

If you want to set off turbulent waves in the foreign exchange market, the most nerve-wracking thing for international bears is the amount of foreign exchange reserves of the big countries in the East, after all, they still have 4 trillion US dollars in reserves, which can be said to be the highest in the world.

But then again, the size of the $4 trillion foreign exchange reserve may sound unshakable, but as long as it can cause panic, it is not unshakable.

As long as 80 million of the country's 1.4 billion people exchange the required amount of $50,000, the $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves will be exhausted, enough to trigger a collapse.

You must know that the number of people who have moved this year alone will exceed 10 million, and if these 10 million people are exchanged for $50,000 this year, they can exchange $500 billion in foreign exchange.

Because of this, those international bears and foreign media have always spared no effort to mobilize the power of public opinion to sing the big countries in the East, and have spared no effort to exaggerate the "collapse theory", just to cause panic and spread it on a large scale.

If a large-scale foreign exchange run is triggered, even if the scale of the 4 trillion yuan of astronomical foreign exchange reserves is doubled, it will not be able to withstand it.

Since September this year, a number of international short predators have publicly shorted the RMB, including a large number of international hedge funds such as Quantum Endowment Fund, Hart's hedge fund, Ackerman's Pershing Capital, and Capital.

But at this moment, Fang Hong thought about it for a while and ordered: "Let Shi Yao secretly arrange a matter to find out the offshore RMB, especially to find out how many offshore RMB there are in HK and Xinjiapo, you must give me data within two months." The main battlefield of this foreign exchange market game will unfold in Hong Kong as it did 20 years ago. ”

If international bears want to stir up the storm in the foreign exchange market and short the RMB, no matter what kind of operation they take, they need the ammunition of the RMB, which is a precondition that cannot be bypassed.

Therefore, we must first figure out the size of the offshore yuan and figure out how much ammunition the opponent can have.

With the development of the economy, the renminbi gradually flows to markets outside the mainland, and these outflows of renminbi are called offshore renminbi, which corresponds to onshore renminbi.

HK is the world's major offshore RMB market, and the supply and demand of RMB in the Mainland and HK are different, the management mechanism is different, and the exchange rate of offshore RMB and onshore RMB is not exactly the same.

Despite the implementation of foreign exchange controls on the mainland, there will still be RMB flows between the two markets.

They are all the same currency, but the prices in the two markets are different, so there is naturally room for arbitrage, that is, buying in the low-priced market, and then selling in the high-priced market to arbitrage the spread.

In the onshore RMB market, international capital cannot exchange US dollars and RMB at will, so the bears can only snipe at the RMB in the offshore RMB market, and use this to drive the depreciation of the onshore RMB.

Therefore, the main battlefield of the foreign exchange offensive and defensive war this time must be carried out offshore.

……