Hearing his bullish views on the foreign U.S. stock market, Tian Jiayi knew that the next step was to hold a long strategy on U.S. stocks, which was diametrically opposed to most people in the outside world who were bearish.

After a while, Fang Hong turned to ask: "By the way, has the data come out, how much did you earn in the foreign exchange market this time?" ”

Hearing this, Tian Jiayi nodded and replied: "It's already out, and the stars have made a net profit of about 150 billion US dollars in just two months, which is about 970 billion yuan excluding exchange rate changes." ”

Rounded to the nearest trillion, if this number is spread out, it will definitely cause a sensation and shock to the outside world, but the revenue of Qunxing Capital has always been a mystery to the outside world, because it is not a listed company, there is no need to disclose some important data to the outside world, and the outside world can only rely on speculation.

Now many institutions are also predicting and analyzing, and there is a consensus that Qunxing Capital won a big victory this time, unlike last year's A-share bailout, which was a game of fame and fortune, and made a lot of money.

Because many domestic capital stocks have been liquidated and weakened, international shorts have also suffered heavy losses and retreated.

So many people have lost money, but it is impossible for this money to disappear out of thin air, but it is just transferred to other pockets.

And players from all walks of life know very well that the vast majority of the money has been transferred to the pockets of the stars, but they don't know how much they have earned, but they are extremely convinced that the wealth harvested by the stars must be an extremely amazing number, and some institutions predict that this number is 700 billion and only high.

But at this moment, Fang Hong couldn't help but close his eyes and breathe, and nodded to himself with satisfaction: "The harvest is nearly a trillion, and it has been a fat year, not bad." ”

In the past two months, Qunxing Capital has harvested in the foreign exchange market. Seventy or eighty percent of this wealth is contributed by some Runren, internal ghosts, and opportunist accomplices, and they now hate Fang Hong to the point of gnashing their teeth.

The income of the foreign exchange market can fully cover the losses generated by the bailout call last year, and it is more than enough, before the 2 trillion smashed into it does not mean that all the money is lost, but the assets held have depreciated, and the overall loss rate does not exceed 20%, such as the banking sector at that time even made some, and most of the funds eventually entered the concept stocks of the galaxy, or the fertilizer does not flow into the field of outsiders.

After a while, Tian Jiayi left the living room, went to get a new document, handed it to Fang Hong, and said: "This is the information you asked for before, and the data is as of December 2015. ”

Fang Hong took it and opened it to browse, which is the data caliber of a list of bilateral currency swaps as of December 2015.

Tian Jiayi sat down in the vacant seat next to him and looked at the document in his hand and said: "A total of 33 countries have signed local currency swap agreements, of which 28 countries have renewed, and 5 new countries were added last year, namely Surinan, Yamenia, Nanfei, Zhili, and Takiktatan. The total swap size of the 33 countries reached 3.3 trillion yuan. ”

Fang Hong, who finished browsing the materials, seemed to be talking to himself: "The swap scale of 3.3 trillion yuan, it seems that we have a large amount of RMB in the offshore market this year, and we don't have to worry about running out of goods at all." ”

Currency swaps began in 2009, when the Magnesium Fed carried out uncontrolled and large-scale money printing to save the market, resulting in the bitter fruit of the "subprime mortgage crisis" that should have been borne by the magnesium countries themselves, and became a yellow lotus that the world had to swallow.

In order to get rid of this dilemma of the dollar, the country began to actively participate in the reconstruction of the international monetary system, that is, to promote the internationalization of the renminbi, and currency swap is one of the key tasks.

In addition to promoting bilateral trade and developing the regional economy, the most important role of currency swap is to allow trade between the two countries to bypass the US dollar and directly use bilateral local currencies for settlement and payment.

After bypassing the US dollar for bilateral trade, the first savings are the transaction costs of the local currency against the US dollar.

The simplest and most direct example is that when exchanging foreign currency, there is an exchange rate difference between the selling price and the buying price, which is the transaction cost, and whether individuals, enterprises or countries need to pay this cost, which is basically impossible to bypass.

Secondly, it can reduce the impact of the "dollar tide" on the domestic economy, when the dollar interest rate hike returns to magnesium countries, some countries' dollar reserves are not enough, forcing them to borrow expensive dollar foreign debt when the interest rate is high, and when the dollar interest rate is cut and flows to the world, the assets of some countries are relatively shrinking because of the depreciation of the dollar.

Tian Jiayi heard what Fang Hong had just said, and after thinking for a moment, he couldn't help but wonder: "You mean that there is a huge correlation between them?" Or do you think the local currency swap is the wrong move? ”

Fang Hong didn't speak, and Tian Jiayi thought about it again and said: "The biggest advantage of currency swap is that you can get rid of the US dollar dilemma, but there is also a potential risk of default. ”

Obviously, this default risk is also a risk that has to be taken in order to promote the internationalization of the RMB, and what can be done is to try to screen countries with high credit for currency swaps.

Fang Hong suddenly said in a deep voice at this time: "The question is, is it really possible to get rid of the dollar dilemma?" Not necessarily, in my opinion. ”

Tian Jiayi stared at Fang Hong curiously, and the latter immediately looked at him and said, "The international games are all about the interests of Chiguoguo. For example, I am the target country of the swap, and your renminbi has come to me, but I still think that the U.S. dollar is better in the international arena, and you can buy things that you can buy with the renminbi and dollars for what you can't buy with the renminbi. ”

"So what is best for me? Of course, I converted the RMB into US dollars, so I went to the market and threw away all the RMB in my hand and converted it into US dollars, and the RMB was thrown away before it was hot. ”

"This will lead to a consequence, the renminbi will in turn be constantly run, which will cause the depreciation of the renminbi, and will further make those countries that swap the renminbi firmly sell and exchange for dollars, and your exchange rate still can't hold, and the swap will be lonely for a long time."

Hearing him say this, Tian Jiayi suddenly understood the logic and understood the meaning of his previous sentence, the trend of RMB depreciation remains unchanged, not to mention that the United States still has the card of raising interest rates.

Obviously, if the currency is swapped, those countries will exchange their backhand for the US dollar, and the RMB will be run, and the RMB will still carry everything after going around for a day, and still not get rid of the US dollar dilemma, but will also bear the risk of default by the swap target country in the future.

Tian Jiayi raised his eyes to Fang Hong and asked, "Then we should continue to buy RMB as planned, or wait for a period of depreciation to be in place?" ”

Fang Hong shook his head: "No, just continue to buy according to the plan, no matter how the exchange rate goes, it will not affect the implementation of the established plan, Qunxing is not a small workshop, this account must not be used as an economic account to calculate, but to be calculated as a positive account, less than 10 trillion reserves can be bought and bought." ”

……