February 26, 2023 is a Sunday, Yuansheng was reviewing stocks at home, when he heard the doorbell ringing, and opened it to see that it was Zhang Sheng.......

After Zhang Sheng entered the door: The tea mailed by his hometown is real organic tea, and no pesticides have been used. I've drunk it, it's not bad, I'll give you some........

Yuansheng: Okay, the tea leaves in various places have their own characteristics, and the old family grows them themselves, without pesticides, which is really good.......

Mr. Zhang: People who speculate in stocks want to know, is it important to choose stocks? Or is timing important?

Far away, stock selection and timing are important. For example, Kweichow Moutai has been the long-term preferred stock of A-shares in the past 20 years, and there is no one. In the past 20 years, whoever chose Kweichow Moutai, the more it guarded, the more profitable it became, it went from 25.88 yuan on September 23, 2003 (this is the compound price. If it is not reinstated, it will be 20.71 yuan) and will rise to 13,593.01 yuan on February 18, 2021 (this is the reinstatement price. If not, it is 2627.88 yuan).

In just over 18 years, Kweichow Moutai shares have risen 525 times. Think about it for yourself, how many businesses in the human world can make 525 times more money in 18 years? It can be said that there are almost none, or very few.

Why can Kweichow Moutai continue to rise? The main reason is that its net profit has risen sharply every year, even if it rises to the current 1788 yuan (the compound price is 9688 yuan), its price-earnings ratio is only 37 times, which is not high, and it is in a reasonable range.

Yuansheng remembers: It was about 2010 (or 2009), in Pengshi, you could buy a bottle of Feitian Moutai for more than 300 yuan at any time (currently 2600-2800 yuan a bottle). The retail price is always much higher than the ex-factory price, for example, the current ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai is 998 yuan (the retail price is 2600-2800 yuan). It is conceivable: from 2009 to the present, the ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai does not know how many times the price has been raised?

In short, every time the price is raised, Kweichow Moutai's profits increase dramatically, which is the main reason why it has risen from September 2003 to February 2021!

Many people do not recognize Mr. Lin*, when he was interviewed by CCTV in 2006, he directly opened his stock account, and people all over the country saw that his account made more than 100 million yuan in profits from Kweichow Moutai stocks alone. Think about how many people in China in 2006 could earn more than 100 million yuan on a stock in their own accounts?

At that time, he said in front of the camera: Kweichow Moutai is the only stock in A-share (and even China) whose products are in short supply, I don't buy such stocks, what do I buy? He also said: He will always guard Kweichow Moutai......... Even now, ordinary people can't buy Feitian Moutai at the factory price (998 yuan)! If you can afford to buy it, countless liquor stores will recycle it for 2,200-2,400 yuan, and you will make a lot of money.

The first brother of Kweichow Moutai is generally at the department level, because of the use of the ex-factory price for personal gain, there have been 2 first brothers in prison in the past 10 years, which shows how attractive it is to be able to buy the ex-factory price.

In all fairness, at a low level, or in the process of 25.88 yuan to 13593.01 yuan, you have never participated in the speculation of Kweichow Moutai, then, your stock selection is not first-class! Let's think about it: in the process of 20.71 yuan to 300 yuan, Kweichow Moutai's stock is considered low, this kind of product should not be used for stocks, but we did not buy, but specifically buy the stocks of enterprises with a surplus of products, can we not eat the set?

At present, there are more than 5,000 stocks in A-shares, of which 95% of stock products are in surplus, if you are very good, directly look for their sales department, they are happy to give you 2-5% commission....... If you help them sell 100 million yuan a year, you can get 200-5 million yuan. You can sell 1 billion yuan, you can get 2000---50000000 yuan. You're the company's sales hero, and by the end of the year, they'll rate you a .........

Choosing stocks that are in short supply is the right stock selection; From February 2016 to January 2018, Kweichow Moutai shares rose 3.5 times in less than 2 years, and buying stocks during this time period is the right time, and from November 2018 to early February 2021, Kweichow Moutai stocks rose 4.7 times. Buying during this time period, Moutai stocks rose very fast, and this time period is also the correct stock selection.

Zhang Sheng nodded in agreement: If you choose stocks correctly, you can generally ensure that you will not lose, and at most you will take a little longer. On the premise of choosing the right stocks, the right time can make quick profits! Therefore, stock selection and timing are very important.

Yuansheng: Let me tell you a story, and my understanding of stock selection and timing will be more profound------------

Everyone says that "risk is proportional to return", but this sentence is wrong!

There is a huge variable between risk and return, and that variable is called ability.

For example, tightrope walking, for people like us who have never practiced before, walking a tightrope is a very risky thing. But for an acrobat, everyone will think that it is too simple and there is no risk.

Li Ka-shing once said: "Others say that I am good at taking risks, but in fact, I am wrong, I have never taken a little risk in my life." ”

Why would he say that?

When he was young, Li Ka-shing sold plastic flowers. He has worked in other people's factories, and he knows how to produce plastic flowers, how to sell them, how much money they can make, and other important factors in doing business. And the production and sales he invited were even better than the factories he had worked in the past, how could he not make money? If you are not afraid of not knowing the goods, you are afraid of comparing goods.

Later, Li Ka-shing invested in real estate, and some people said that he was taking risks, but he still felt that it was not a risk. Because Li Ka-shing started researching those targets in advance a few years before investing in real estate, he knew very well how much they were worth, so he just waited for the best price to enter, not a risk.

If you also use Li Ka-shing's method to buy stocks, is it still risky?

Zhang Sheng said excitedly: That's a good point! This story is so enlightening for us to speculate on stocks in the future! For example, it is safe for us to drive at a speed of 30-60 mph in urban areas, and 80-120 mph on the highway. And professional drivers, even on mountain roads, dare to drive at speeds above 200 mph (the highest speed is 300-400 mph on the race track). Do we dare to buy 200-400 mph? Definitely don't dare! Otherwise, accidents can happen at any time!

Therefore, choosing different stocks in the stock market depends on the individual.

...........

After lunch, Zhang Sheng went home.......... Tomorrow is week 1, what are the changes in the stock market waiting for Yuansheng and Zhang Sheng?