Chapter 81: What is the key to victory and defeat?

February 25, 2023 is week 6, and the two families of Yuansheng and Zhang Sheng went to Pengshi Star Park to play. Peng Market is one of the most developed cities in China, and there are many places for children to visit........... Yuansheng watched the child playing, and he wanted to take the stock market ..........

"Hurricane" is currently the hottest TV series in China.

After watching the TV series, some people concluded: what kind of person you are with will be what kind of person you will become; If you enter a different circle, you will have a different life.

Lao Mo's life experience in "Hurricane" is very instructive: Lao Mo was helped by An Xin, and he had the opportunity to become a good person.

It's a pity that the first person he met after he was released from prison was not the good guy An Xin.

It's Gao Qiqiang and Tang Xiaohu.

Lao Mo actually wanted to live An Xin's birthday, and he deliberately went to find An Xin.

But I didn't see it by mistake.

In the end, under the calculations of Tang Xiaohu and Gao Qiqiang, they embarked on the road of crime .............

In the stock market, it's the same, you choose different stocks and decide different outcomes: for example, on June 22, 2018, you can buy CATL at around 70 yuan.

However, until the close of trading on November 21, 2019, it was still 77.15 yuan. In the past 17 months, CATL has been fluctuating between 61 yuan and 95 yuan, most of which has fluctuated between 61 and 75 yuan. It can be said that the choice of CATL during this time period is medium luck; The luckier should be to pick stocks that are constantly rising during this time period (of course, 99% of people can't pick such stocks); People with low luck should choose stocks that keep falling and hitting new lows.

Since November 22, 2019, CATL has embarked on its long bull road of big rise and small return! Starting from 77.15 yuan, it rose to 692 yuan on December 3, 2021, an increase of nearly 8 times, and it only took 2 years and 11 days. In a word: in the past 2 years, you have chosen to buy CATL correctly! It's all winners. This is the importance of stock selection, which is the first place.

Let's take a look at the situation of BYD in the same time period: the closing price on November 21, 2019 was 43.62 yuan, and by December 3, 2021, it was 309.80 yuan, an increase of 6.1 times.

It can rise 6.1 times in 2 years, and it is also a big bull stock. Being able to choose such a stock is also a correct stock selection.

Why have these two stocks risen 6-8 times in the past 2 years? Why didn't they rise much before? There has been no big rise in the future?

After a long period of research in economics, it has been found that it is very difficult for emerging industries to go from 0 to 1%, and it is also difficult to make money, and at this stage, there are very few companies involved.

And the stage from 1% to 20% is the easiest to make money, and it is also a process that countless businesses have to participate in. CATL and BYD are both new energy concept stocks. To be honest, the initial stage of new energy vehicles is from 0 to 1, and no one cares.

Since 2019, the market share of new energy vehicles has begun to rise from 1% to 20%, which is the most exciting, and the stock market is the soaring stock price! Whoever buys makes money! And it's a quick money.

Knowing this, you also understand the reason why they have risen so much.

Therefore, the same is true in the stock market, new energy concept stocks (especially lithium stocks), taking the east wind of new energy vehicles from 1% to 20%, in a few years to rise 10-30 times, in the future, they ...........

In the past few years, some people have guarded new energy concept stocks for 2-3 years, making a lot of money, and now they are guarding, and the outcome is difficult to say.

Zhang Sheng asked: What kind of stocks are easy to get speculation in the stock market?

Yuansheng: If it is a short-term speculation, the first factor is the emerging theme; Second, the subject matter should be attractive and arouse everyone's interest; Third, there should be room for imagination; Fourth, there should be a money-making effect. If these 4 points are met at the same time, the main force and all kinds of funds will continue to enter and speculate.

Zhang Sheng: Yuansheng, you are right, in recent years, A-shares have speculated on the theme of ephedra *, which is the first time that A-shares have appeared, and the speculation has been booming; I have also speculated on the theme of artificial meat, which is also the first time that A-shares have appeared.......... Their short speculation is relatively successful, and those who follow up in time have made money. Of course, in the end, the hype ended with chicken feathers. This is one of the peculiar characteristics of the stock market: the person who takes the last baton has always been more miserable.

Yuansheng went on to say that in the stock market, institutions like to speculate the most about this type of stock that has this at the same time. The first is that the stock price is positioned relatively low, either the stock price or the price-earnings ratio is low.

Second, their performance is high-growth, which means that in the next few years, they have doubled year after year. Stocks that can do these 2 points are likely to be seeded players of long-term bull stocks.

Of course, there are many stocks whose net profit is growing rapidly before listing, but after listing, the net profit continues to decline, and finally becomes a bear stock.

Therefore, it is also difficult to play the medium and long term, because it is difficult for you to accurately predict in advance whether it will increase or decline in performance in 1 year, 2 years, or 3 years from now.

If you want to keep the stock for 1-3 years, you actually have to wait 1-3 years to know the ......., at that time, is the stock market bullish or bearish? At that time, what industry was booming? Or is it a recession? At that time, the business situation was a big profit? Or is there a significant drop in profits? Do we have the ability to see the end of 1-3 years in advance? Obviously, most people don't have this ability.

Therefore, the longer the term, the more difficult it is to predict accurately!

Zhang Sheng: Yes, if you don't even have the ability to predict and judge 3-5 days, 3-5 weeks, or 3-5 months, you can't judge accurately. Then, it is more difficult and inaccurate to judge the situation in the next 1-3 years. This is common sense, but unfortunately, many people in the stock market are against common sense.

Yuansheng: Yes, a new stock is a popular industry when it is listed, so the first day of listing opened at 168 yuan, and it took a few days to speculate to 188 yuan, and after 5-6 years, its performance was a big loss for several consecutive years, and finally the stock price was lower than 1 yuan for 20 consecutive days, and finally it could only be delisted...........

"Dad, I'm hungry......." The girl's cry made Yuansheng and Zhang Sheng stop chatting and drive home separately............