Chapter 494: A Symptom Before the Great Change
89 years, a special year in the history of neon bubbles.
This year, the bubble entered an unprecedented expansion, and people's carnival also entered a new class.
The stock market is rising day by day, setting new historical records every day. The property market, which is more exaggerated than it, is also soaring.
Land prices in Tokyo are now far beyond what ordinary wage earners can afford.
However, although land prices have skyrocketed, everyone is not in a hurry at all. Even the higher it rises, the happier people are.
Because everyone's money is in the stock market and the real estate market, if they rise, won't their assets go up with it?
Since a few years ago, I have seen the stock market and property market go all the way up.
Unable to resist the temptation of friends and various reports, everyone slowly moved the savings they had previously deposited in the bank to the stock market and property market.
Today, neon has entered the hot state of national stock speculation and national real estate speculation.
Not only them, but those overseas tourists see the situation of neon here, and of course they want to come in and get a piece of the pie.
So with the blessing of overseas capital, the neon twin bubble is inflating more and more.
According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Finance, in the first quarter of this year, the total market capitalization of the neon stock market was 686 trillion yen.
686 trillion yen, or $5.36 trillion at the current exchange rate of 128.
Is this number exaggerated? Just look at last year's neon GDP.
For the whole of last year, Neon's GDP was $3.07 trillion, and this year it is almost in that range.
That is, the total value of Neon's stock market is now about 1.7 times that of GDP, and even in the later millennium 20s, Neon's GDP is around $4 trillion.
This comparison shows how crazy the neon stock market is right now, and its total value is higher than the GDP of any period in neon's history.
However, this is not the most exaggerated, even more exaggerated real estate industry, which is worth $1,500 trillion! That's 500 times the current neon GDP!
1500 trillion dollars, not yen~!
No wonder the outside world is saying that Shirakawa Kaede, the richest man in the world, is not worthy of his name.
In terms of land value, Yoshiaki Tsutsumi is worth a trillion dollars! Nearly one-third of Neon's GDP.
Such a huge amount of wealth can be compared to Shirakawa Kaede's two or three billion dollars, and the difference between the two is more than an order of magnitude.
"One Tokyo can buy the whole of the country!" , "Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo can buy the whole of Kamadai! ”。
These jokes that have been passed down in later generations are the true portrayal of neon now.
Some experts even calculated that if the entire neon is included, it will probably be possible to win four rice countries.
The land area of Neon is about 25 times that of the United States, in other words, the average land price of Neon is now 100 times that of the United States!
The stock market and the property market have exceeded the GDP value across the board, and they are all calculated in multiples.
The latter, in particular, is hundreds of times behind GDP.
Compared with the land price of the United States, it is also a hundred times different, and all of these can really feel the state of neon fire cooking oil at this time.
GDP can't catch up with the stock market and property market, which shows how empty the economic situation is at this time.
So is Neon's government aware of this?
All kinds of trade wars, neon now seem to have survived one by one.
The semiconductor agreement signed a few years ago has not shrunk much in the global market share today.
Just looking at the surface data, everyone can still enjoy a luxurious life with confidence.
Although the yen has appreciated and the real industry has suffered, these are within the government's tolerance.
So now it seems that this time the neon of the exchange rate crisis seems to have passed safely.
However, in any case, the phenomenon of the stock market and the property market exceeding GDP is abnormal.
The neon government also realized this, so internally, especially the Ministry of Finance, began to discuss raising interest rates again.
In the past, interest rate cuts were to stimulate domestic demand, and also to create a relaxed economic environment to allow capital to flow into the real manufacturing industry.
However, contrary to expectations, the financial and real estate industries are obviously more attractive than the real industries with large investment and long return cycles.
As a result, hot money, bank funds, overseas travel funds, and residents' household deposits have all entered the property market and the stock market.
Now the overheated market performance of these two has made the neon government a little scared.
So the word "interest rate hike" under the trade-off, after 27 months, has returned to the eyes of the neon government.
In addition, the international environment at this time has also prompted the neon government to make this consideration.
In the late 80s and early 90s, the world changed dramatically.
The Cold War is coming to an end, Germany is moving towards reunification, and the world is moving from bipolar to multilateral.
Those who are international investors are starting to look for the next target.
And in order to cushion the shock caused by capital flight, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.
The Fed added, and Britain began to increase.
Everyone else has added it, do you neon follow?
If you don't add it, then there is a risk that domestic funds will flee.
Coupled with the fact that the real estate prices in the country were out of control at this time, in order to curb its inflation, the government was also arguing about the interest rate hike.
"Now the neon economy is like sitting on a dry firewood. Ladies and gentlemen, it's time for the overheated economy to cool down.
At the current price of land, the average person simply cannot afford to buy a home. ”
In the hall of the National Assembly, Yasu Mie no stood up to make an impassioned speech.
He is an out-and-out "austerity" who is very inflation-averse in his economic advocacy.
When the rice country asked Neon to appreciate the yen in 85, Mie Noyasu strongly opposed it.
He struggled for a while, but in the end, under international pressure, Neon compromised here.
Now, with the help of the international environment and the overheated economic situation here in neon, Mie Noyasu is once again advocating his own austerity policy, which is to raise interest rates on the yen.
The current Minister of Finance, Reno Murayama, is also aware that something is wrong with Neon's economy.
Don't look at the jubilation among the people, but the general international consensus is that the neon economy has been filled with bubbles, and the drum is getting bigger and bigger.
How could they, as the decision-making bodies of the state, be unaware.
So now that Mie Noyasu heard the old words again, the opposition in the National Assembly hall was not as fierce as it was at the beginning.
Minister of Finance Murayama Reno would like to discuss this issue with Mie Noyasu.
However, thinking that the latter was likely to be the next president of the Bank of Japan, Murayama was patient with the idea of communication.
Alas, the relationship between the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance is really hard to describe~
The struggle between the two, or the Bank of Japan's path to independence, began in the 70s of the last century.
For 100 years, the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance have always maintained a situation of love and killing each other.
In particular, there was a strong man, the appearance of Imanda Sendo, known as the "Hokkai", who brought the original Bank of Japan to a whole new level.
Under his leadership, the Bank of Japan was able to elevate even the de jure superior, the Ministry of Finance.
However, because of his appearance, the Ministry of Finance began to restrict the Bank of Japan everywhere.
For example, by parachuting in the president of the bank, he will strengthen his control over the Bank of Japan.
But the Bank of Japan itself is not a vegetarian, and there is internal unity against the president who has parachuted in from the Ministry of Finance.
After a long time, the Tanaka cabinet and the then BOJ president finally compromised and began the "mutual dispatch personnel system".
As you can tell from the name, everyone takes turns sitting in the position of president of the Bank of Japan.
This is the Ministry of Finance, so the next president must be selected from within the Bank of Japan.
However, most of the time, due to the parachuting and the confrontation within the Bank of Japan, the president from the Ministry of Finance is often at risk of being overshot.
And the Mie Noyasu in front of him is the direct descendant of the Bank of Japan, and he is also a loyal believer of Imanda Satoron.
That's right, what Mie Noyasu has always wanted to do is to make the Bank of Japan independent and implement its own austerity policy.
The thought in his head spun rapidly, and Murayama raised his hand to stop the argument between the officials of the Ministry of Finance and Mie Noyasu.
"Mie Ye-san, Neon's inflation situation is still under control.
However, considering the unusual activity of the property market, the Ministry of Finance agreed to raise interest rates. However, the interest rate hike needs to be carried out in multiple steps, and it is not easy to rush too much. ”
Alas, there is no way, the neon domestic bubble is a problem and it always needs to be solved.
And both the United States and Britain are raising interest rates, and Neon can only follow.
If you don't, capital will flee, and the neon stock market is likely to land hard.
Therefore, in a dilemma, the Ministry of Finance decided to explore the way first.
As for the grievances between the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, let's put it aside for now.
Receiving an affirmative reply from Murayama, Mie Noyasu finally showed a smile of victory.
Only by raising the yen will the interest rate of the yen will curb the lending of the banking sector to the stock market and the property market, which will further curb the continuous influx of hot money into the markets of both markets.
If the amount of capital entering the market decreases, the enthusiasm for investment in real estate and other industries will decrease.
In the end, housing prices will fall, and then ordinary people will be able to afford housing.
What a perfect plan, Mie Ye Yasu has long wanted to attack the extremely high prices and land prices of neon.
Now the Ministry of Finance is not completely relieved, but at least this is a good start, isn't it?
Yes, although Mie Yeyasu is the next president of the Bank of Japan, what he wants in his heart is that he hopes that the people can really buy a house.
From this point alone, his intentions are good, and he really wants to do something for Neon's economy.
However, economic regulation and control, especially those related to the international environment, have always been unpredictable.
His intentions may be good, but the results are not necessarily beneficial.
Mie Noyasu has his own ambitions, but also an idealistic side.
However, the impact of these has not yet been felt.
At this time, he was arguing with officials of the Ministry of Finance about how much interest should be raised by the Bank of Japan.
Mie Yeyasu naturally hopes that the more the better, at least to ensure that the neon here can withstand the impact of the US dollar and pound rate hikes.
However, as the current vice president of the Bank of Japan, he also knows that he can't take too big a step, otherwise it is easy to have an accident.
So the two sides clashed several times, and finally the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance reached an agreement:
The neon government plans to raise interest rates on the yen at the end of May, with the expected target of adjusting the interest rate from 2.5% to 3.25%.
After the Plaza Accord, in order to implement loose monetary policy and stimulate domestic demand, there was a series of interest rate cuts.
Now, in order to curb the continuous expansion of the bubble, Neon has begun to prepare to raise interest rates again.
The interest rate hike discussed today is just a signal, and others may not know how it will go next, but Mie Yeyasu is very clear.
He has already made up his mind that when he takes over the BOJ, he will continue to raise interest rates until the bubble is suppressed.
Mie Yeyasu, who was considered to have punctured the neon bubble in later generations, was also the famous "Heisei no Oni".
His ambition and radicalism went far beyond what is now revealed.
In 89, which was also the first year of Heisei, great changes were already quietly brewing.
(End of chapter)