Glancing at Niu Qiangdong, who had a slight understanding and stopped thinking, Qingyun lit a cigarette and smoked slowly.

"In fact, this is essentially because the industry is so good at the moment, the money is too easy to make, and they don't have to worry about having no customers, and their own supply is limited, so they choose to choose customers.

This is a typical practice of small businessmen, the industry environment is good, patronizing to make money now, and ignoring the rapid growth of the industry, staking to occupy the blank market.

Because only occupying the blank market is the most important thing at this stage.

To give up customers is to cultivate more competitors, is to give up growth, only the needs of customers can force enterprises to continuously improve their capabilities and technology. ”

After Niu Qiangdong calmed down and digested for a while, Qingyun continued to speak, "The third stage of the industry cycle is the maturity period.

At this stage, the ceiling of the industry began to appear, and the emergence of the ceiling means the arrival of the maturity period of this market.

The cycle of this stage is characterized by the fact that the theoretical consumption number of customers is close to the peak, whether it is the base number of customers or the frequency and amount of customer purchases.

At this stage, the market size of the industry is no longer growing rapidly, and the market is beginning to be saturated.

But just like farmers farming, the balance between supply and demand is a very crowd behavior that cannot be precisely controlled, and it is often the case that the capacity of the entire industry will expand faster than the total demand, and the tipping point will slowly deviate.

All markets have ceilings, and there can never be a market in the world that will never have a ceiling, and what is even more disgusting is that this ceiling will move up and down, this is the trend.

For example, last year's birth population was 16.47 million, then the corresponding ceiling of the number of new kindergarten students in three years later is more than 16 million, this number may become 17 million due to early enrollment in kindergarten, but it certainly cannot become 30 million.

This is the ceiling of the kindergarten industry in 2006, and it is also the ceiling of the industry of milk powder and infant products in 2006.

As our fertility policy continues to be implemented, the number of newborns will gradually decrease in accordance with the country's macro-control vision of achieving the optimal capacity of natural resources.

By 2022, the total number of newborns will be 8 million, and the national population will be at an inflection point, and then it will be reduced by a gap of 10 million per year.

Speaking of this, Qingyun pursed his lips helplessly, "At this stage, there are also a few taboos.

The first is to expand production capacity.

Lao Niu, let me ask you, when is the most fierce expansion of production capacity? The first or second half of growth? ”

Niu Qiangdong thought for a moment and said, "The second half of the growth period. ”

Qingyun smiled, "Why?" ”

Niu Qiangdong said very firmly, "Human nature!

At the beginning of the growth period, there was a small group of people who made money in the early market, but in fact, everyone didn't believe it.

When more and more people are making money in this market, and there are enough examples around them, people believe it.

This triggers a lot of propagation and fission, so it's often the last time, but it's the time when the number of people in attendance is highest. ”

Qingyun nodded, "This is true in any industry. Others are not easy to understand, but you and I are from the countryside and have a deeper understanding. ”

Thinking of the sometimes indistinguishable operations of the villagers in the township, Da Qiangzi also sighed helplessly, "In our village, there are garlic plants every year, and there are only a few people who have planted them at the beginning, and they have made money, and many people actually don't believe it."

The next year, the relatives of these people followed suit and made money.

In the third year, almost everyone in our village vacated their fields in September to grow garlic.

So......"

He spread his hands, "That year, during the New Year, although there were cases of starvation to death, almost all families did not even have meat on Chinese New Year's Eve. ”

Qingyun shook his head after hearing this, "Our village also planted garlic sprouts at that time, and this happened. In fact, this is equivalent to the transition from maturity to the next stage in a very short period of time, with a surplus, and the relationship between supply and demand has an extreme imbalance.

Therefore, the price of garlic and garlic sprouts rose sharply in several years, and then returned to equilibrium.

However, this is inevitable in all business economies. ”

The market is a baton.

But sometimes the baton is a bit blind, and there will always be a waste of total social resources.

How to make the baton 'smart' is not something that a private entrepreneur like Qingyun should think about.

"The purpose of their re-expansion is to gain market share. But the efficiency ratio of expansion at this stage is declining rapidly. In the long run, it is more advantageous not to expand than to expand, and it is even necessary to cut off some of the ineffective positions brought about by the period of rapid expansion. ”

Speaking of this, Qingyun paused, and touched the cup with Niu Qiangdong again.

His drinking attitude is 'children must become famous and drunk when drinking', not that they have to drink excessively, but they must drink to the fullest.

What's more, the beer has been boiled again, and the alcohol is actually nothing, and what is even more coincidental is that the large amount of alcohol of the Great Hadron is very famous, so Qingyun simply turned on the firepower.

Niu Qiangdong is also not false at all, while drinking, he is quickly recording in his notebook.

However, he still had some regret in his heart.

It's time to buy a voice recorder.

"The second taboo at this stage is blind optimism.

I feel that the growth period is good, and after making a handful, I began to float, and I feel that Lao Tzu is invincible in the world, the future is bright, and this business can be done for a long time.

I don't need to say much about this taboo, you know very well what the consequences are. ”

Qingyun glanced playfully at the big hadron with a reddish face, which was the case when the big hadron made a tape recorder.

After a classic price war to repel competitors, Niu Qiangdong has occupied 60% of the tape transfer recorder market, and his net worth is nearly 10 million.

However, at this moment, the tape recorder has come to the end of history, and the special period of the cold has been superimposed, and the business of Da Hadron has taken a sharp turn, so it has to start the transformation.

Qingyun didn't laugh at anything, people, if you are ashamed to the extreme, you will be angry, he continued, "Third, strategic mistakes. ”

However, Niu Qiangdong's face still changed.

He felt that Qingyun was still talking about him.

However, Qingyun's subsequent words dispelled the shame in his heart, "As I said earlier, whether your product is 80 points or 85 points is actually of little significance during the growth period, and occupying the market is the most important thing."

However, when it comes to maturity, upgrading becomes crucial to quickly complete the upgrade of your own products and markets.

Why?

At this stage, you should 'dig deep holes, accumulate grain', continue to dig deep and broaden your 'moat', hoard enough money, tie tightly with customers, and constantly improve your products and services, so that customer satisfaction continues to improve.

To put it simply, this is a strategic shift period.

At this stage, entrepreneurs need to quickly change from the expansion thinking of staking to the defensive thinking of 'digging deep holes and accumulating grain'.

Whether or not they can win in the next stage of fierce competition largely determines whether entrepreneurs at this stage can quickly raise corporate barriers.

So, why is that? ”

Qingyun asked himself, "Because, the fourth stage has arrived, the integration period." ”

He took a deep breath and then smiled, "At this stage...... It's the flames of war.

Why is there a consolidation period?

Supply exceeds demand.

The industry market ceiling has been reached.

This is just like your successful business war in 2001.

The market capacity of the tape recorder in China is so large, it has been filled by you, and a new channel dealer suddenly appeared, how can he survive, he can only rob you.

For him, the easiest way to grab is to fight a price war.

Lao Niu, in this regard, you have more say than me, come and tell me, I am really curious about the specific process of the year. ”

Niu Qiangdong suddenly looked a little dazed when he heard this, to be honest, this is the biggest gamble he has made in his life so far.

With his narration, the price war that year was slowly unveiled in front of Qingyun.

The price war that Niu Qiangdong encountered in 2001 was very simple, but it was extremely tragic.

Here's the thing:

There is a big boss in Yizhou Island, the Rhenium factory is the world's largest optical disc factory, and the relationship with all the world's recorders and OEM manufacturers is very good, so his son wants to be the general agent in BJ.

This directly clashed with Jingdong, and the manufacturers felt that Jingdong was good, but they didn't dare to offend Rhenium, so they simply got two general agents with the mud.

However, the two general generations of the same goods, plus the son of Yizhou Island is menacing, with $5 million in his hand, he vows to overturn Jingdong.

The prince of Yidao was also in his 20s at the time, about the same age as the big strong son, and they were both strong in blood, and they saw the red with bayonets in the first battle.

The prince of Yidao was angry and told all the subordinates: 'It will always be 50 yuan cheaper than Jingdong!' If Jingdong sells for 50 yuan, I will give it away for nothing! ’

The price war has reached the level of a Verdun meat grinder, a Sakura Yamaha recorder with a purchase price of 2700 yuan, Jingdong is priced at 1700 yuan, and Yizhou Island Gongzi is priced at 1650 yuan!

Anyone who has done business knows that when encountering such a tragic price war, there is generally no good way, or the manufacturer comes forward to mediate, or fights for strength, and in the end, whoever can't hold it will get out.

The price war has reached the point of a cash flow war.

Da Hadron has a net worth of less than 10 million, and the other party claims to have held 5 million US dollars hostage, and he will not give up if he does not take down Jingdong, which is a dead end.

But the Great Hadron is the Great Hadron after all, and when everyone thinks that he cannot win, the Great Hadron shows his sword.

Knowing the difficulties, open a shop opposite the shop of the prince of Ijima!

If you drop 50, I'll drop 50!

Look who's ruthless!

This kind of ruthlessness makes the sweet potato Yidao Gongzi very uncomfortable and a little miserable.

After all, killing a thousand enemies and losing eight hundred, although he lost money, his loss hurt.

But is Da Hadron a person who has no brains and only knows how to fight?

If that were the case, he wouldn't have had the subsequent success.

When the recorder was sold at a loss of more than 1,000 yuan, he secretly ordered the employees: when he met a customer, he recommended it to the other party, saying that the other party was 50 yuan cheaper than me!

The customer took a look, yes, the same goods, Yidao Gongzi is cheaper than Jingdong, buy!

This is a big gamble by Da Hadron!

Da Hadron knows that he can't fight each other with hard strength, but he can't help but fight.

So what to do?

Simply, while showing a tough attitude, let the other party bleed violently!

Just let the other party sell it, the more you sell, the more you lose!

He's making a big gamble: The son of Yidao, who claims to have $5 million, doesn't dare to fight like this!

Moreover, Da Qiangzi also secretly poked and poked his henchmen to pretend to be customers, constantly took goods from Yidao Gongzi, and then sold them at a loss of 50 yuan.

This trick suddenly made him lose more than 1,000 yuan per unit to only 50 yuan per unit.

A month later, the prince of Yizhou Island retreated at the cost of a loss of nearly 30 million yuan.

But don't think that Da Hadron is comfortable, he lost nearly three million, but Yidao Gongzi's loss was ten times that of him.

In the final analysis, doing business is to make money, if you lose money like this, and you don't understand Jingdong's strength, and the relationship with various manufacturers is bad, Yidao Gongzi's father saw that his son did business like this, so he still withdrew.

The big hadron is to fight the price war in the short term, make the other party bleed, and bet that the other party will not dare to fight again!

He, won!

However, the career is won and the love is lost.

Because the process was too miserable, the parents of the 'Beijing Coupon' didn't want to follow Niu Qiangdong to ask for food one day in the future, so they made a decisive move, and they must beat the mandarin ducks.

Qingyun, who was addicted to gossip, saw that Da Hadron's mood was wrong, so he quickly diverted the topic, "At this stage, all people are such a painful method.

The total demand of the industry tends to be stable, but the supply is obviously surplus.

The market began to enter the stage of more monks and less porridge.

At this time, any enterprise that wants to expand its territory can only spend several times the effort to snatch customers and the market from other people's bowls.

For a time, offensive and defensive warfare has become the mainstream behavior of the industry, and all market participants are staring at other people's customers, and they are also carefully guarding their own customers.

This war is protracted and, at the beginning, often begins to ignite with the most brutal price wars.

Soon, the price war will not be able to kill, and the cash flow defense war will be launched, that is, work first, and then take the money.

Then, start to fight for products and services, and by constantly upgrading products and services to participate in the competition, the cost will rise.

In the end, there is an all-out bloody campaign, with the goal of eliminating the opponent, sacrificing profits and cash flow in exchange for not losing market share.

Thousands of enterprises, only to decide the winner, in order to obtain the ultimate industry peace, many entrepreneurs difficult to adapt, into anxiety and suffering.

Therefore, the period of consolidation is destined to come.

And when the integration period comes, it is also a few taboos. ”

Niu Qiangdong, who was still a little sad, suddenly focused his attention when he heard Qingyun's words at this time.

He actually fell at this stage.

……

(End of chapter)