Da Hadron's remembrance of the past has not yet begun, and it is over.

Because after Qingyun picked up another cup, he continued to speak, he quickly put down the cup, and listened carefully while recording.

Not just key points, but full-text records.

He felt that he not only needed to read and recite all that Qingyun said today, but also needed to take it out from time to time, re-read, rethink, and re-perceive.

"The first taboo in the integration period is isolated competition.

At this stage, the people who have committed this taboo actually have the same idea, 'I don't hit others, and others don't come to beat me'.

This is called wishful thinking, how can there be such a good thing?

The humiliation in the history of our country has proved countless times that if you don't fight others, someone will definitely beat you, because it is you, the one who does not attack, who will be beaten.

The second taboo is to stop.

Those who commit this taboo are facing competition, lying flat, and going wherever they go. But it's also impossible.

If the industry consolidation period goes backwards, at least 80% of the people must fall, otherwise the industry will not be good. ”

Speaking of this, Qingyun smiled, took out his BlackBerry phone, opened an email, and handed the phone to Da Hadron.

Niu Qiangdong took a look at the confirmation letter of the Organizing Committee of the '2003 Huaguo IT Industry Summit Forum'.

He glanced at Qingyun suspiciously, feeling a little inexplicable.

Da Qiangzi didn't think that the young man in front of him was a superficial person, and more importantly, there was no need for Qingyun to show superiority in front of him.

Qingyun took the phone back and smiled coldly at the confirmation letter of the industry summit forum above.

This made Niu Qiangdong even more incomprehensible.

In his opinion, Qingyun's invitation to this forum is an 'early recognition' from the industry.

After all, Yan Huang at this moment does not have any great achievements.

Others' praise for Qingyun is a praise for its amazing capital operation ability.

Anyway, if it were him, he would be very happy.

Qingyun shook his head, put his phone aside, and said with a strange expression, "Actually, sometimes you will find that there is a very funny scene in this world. ”

He pointed to his mobile phone, "Industry forums are not new, many industries have them, and a conference hall is full of partners in the industry."

Everyone sat together, discussed the future of the industry, listened to the big guys' talks, and studied the future of the industry together. ”

Liu Qiangdong's neck twitched.

He hasn't been to an industry forum yet.

Although there were still many cases where he made the tape recorder occupy half of the country in China, after all, it was an insignificant subdivision industry, in the words of Mr. Xiaoqing, a subdivision industry with a very low ceiling.

Just when Da Hadron was pantothenic acid in his heart, the mockery at the corner of Qingyun's mouth became more and more obvious, "Then everyone complained, 'It's so difficult in the industry now!'" Business is too bad to do! ’”

Niu Qiangdong heard a little bit of taste.

Sure enough, Qingyun said twice, "This is purely a topic that has no meaning at all." How can there be a future for this industry? Lao Niu, an industry, when the industry forum can't be opened, the industry has a future.

The reason why this industry has no future is because hundreds of people in the conference hall are doing an industry.

They are still talking about the future, and the future actually has nothing to do with them, and when 80% of the companies in that conference hall die, the future of the industry appears. ”

This anti-common sense made Niu Qiangdong stunned for a moment, and then laughed directly out of the pig's cry.

It is worthy of Mr. Xiaoqing.

The mouth is really poisonous.

But to the point.

Xiaoyun, who smiled coldly, spread his hands, "Therefore, during the integration period, 80% of the enterprises will inevitably be destroyed." At this stage, the big fish eat the small fish, and the fast fish eat the slow fish. ”

Niu Qiangdong suppressed his smile, but at this moment, Emperor Yun sighed again and patted him on the shoulder, "Old Niu, we Chinese people have a very good quality, that is, they are more able to fight protracted battles.

I have analyzed a lot of American companies, and at every stage I mentioned, Aramco's speed is very fast, and it will be over in a few years, because many entrepreneurs in their country will soon admit it.

They enter the integration period and find that they can't move, thinking, 'Since I can't fix others, then I'll be out, I'll do other things'.

If they can't beat it, they won't fight, and even if they can't beat it, they will join it, and they will give this enterprise to whomever it should be, and they will make money anyway.

But we Chinese people are not like this, especially the older generation, they think, 'We must survive to the end!' Lao Tzu doesn't believe that he can't survive you! ’

So, our integration period has been particularly long. ”

Speaking of this, he looked at the thoughtful Niu Qiangdong fixedly, "So, old Niu, during the integration period, fight to the death, don't hesitate, look down on life and death, and do it if you don't accept it!" Don't give the enemy any chance to survive, and kill him. ”

Niu Qiangdong completely understood, and nodded heavily.

"The third taboo in the integration period is to wait passively and wait for the opportunity for the industry to pick up.

Many entrepreneurs can't accept the status quo of changes in industry fundamentals, thinking that this is the so-called annual or phased problem, and ignore the essential law of industry cycle evolution.

In this case, frankly speaking, having the mentality of 'adapting to change' is like being a deserter in a war, and it is very difficult to survive in the end.

The fourth taboo is to fight alone and fight against the industry on your own.

The biggest opportunity in the industry consolidation period is 'consolidation', either to integrate others or to be integrated.

Only by merging similar items and achieving economies of scale can we move forward in the integration period.

Many entrepreneurs, on the other hand, are passive in their mindset and actions, neither actively looking for integration opportunities, nor actively looking for integration opportunities to join a stronger team.

Unless such a company has strong barriers, it will be gradually marginalized and eventually become an eliminator in the integration period. ”

In fact, Qingyun wants to say that in China, entrepreneurs, especially the older generation of entrepreneurs, really regard enterprises as enterprises, hold feelings for enterprises, and obviously have no core competence, but they have a fluke mentality and hope to survive to the end.

With the mentality of carrying it to the end, entrepreneurs will only suffer more and more, wasting both opportunities and time.

A business, in fact, is a commodity.

But Qing Yun couldn't say this, this was the ultimate thought, and it was not suitable for his business.

It can only be said that if his next generation can't support the Yanhuang Group, he will get out of the game himself, whether he dedicates this commodity to the country or disposes of it to others.

After saying this, after a glass of wine, Qingyun chewed a few more peanuts.

Niu Qiangdong obviously felt that Xiao Qing's expression was a lot more relaxed.

He also knows that when the integration period is completed, it will naturally lead to a bright future.

A smile bloomed on Qingyun's face, "The integration period has entered the second half, more and more companies are out, and the market has begun to show the dawn of 'clearing'."

Some companies have closed their doors because the market has been continuously seized;

Because some enterprises have been integrated, they have been merged into a leading enterprise to develop together and become bigger and stronger;

Some enterprises have transformed and changed careers, and the original business has gradually declined;

Some enterprises have collapsed because of the age of the entrepreneur and there is no successor.

Whatever the reason, it is ultimately the result of survival of the fittest, and the market is slowly concentrated in the hands of a small number of companies, with 80% of the market being acquired by 20%.

These companies are getting bigger and bigger, and their market position and influence are getting higher.

In the end, the efficiency of the integration industry was improved, the threshold of the integration industry was raised, and the market entered the fifth stage of industry development, the nirvana period.

Phoenix Nirvana, it is fitting to describe this cycle.

At this stage, the enterprise competition is actually 'the leftover is king'. The most unfortunate group of entrepreneurs, the ones who withdrew at the end of the consolidation period and on the eve of the nirvana period, fell into the darkness before the dawn. ”

At this stage, the price war began to disappear, manufacturers entered the range of rationalization and profitability, the market demand did not decrease, the supply came down, and the rest of the people in the industry, each of whom had strong enough customers, products and barriers, and they carved up the huge industry market together.

There is only one taboo at this stage, and it fell on the eve of the Nirvana period.

There are too many examples of this, in the later stage of the integration period, in the face of the price war, many companies really can't hold back, frankly speaking, entrepreneurs in this period are very easy to hand over guns.

However, you have to hand in the gun early, don't wait until this time to hand in the gun.

The value of a company is not the same in different cycles.

In the initial stage, what do you count? It is the account of the future, and the valuation of the enterprise at this time is not anchored, depending on how pleasing the investor looks at the entrepreneur, such as I vote for you.

What do you count in the growth and maturity periods? Calculate the PS account and PE account, how much is your business worth? Multiply the sales by 5 times PS, you sell 200 million, worth 10 billion.

Why?

Because you have a lot of room to grow. Your profit is 20 million, multiplied by 20 times the PE, which is worth 400 million, because I think you can still flip and flip and flip. Accounting in the growth period and maturity period is to calculate the incremental account.

When it comes to consolidation, you will find that the logic of accounting has changed again.

Because the whole industry is losing money, or there is no profit, what kind of account should this be?

Calculate the PB account, calculate the net assets of a company, it is only worth as much.

If you have a net asset of 70 million on your books, then the company is only worth 70 million, because you don't have the ability to make profits.

So, it's not bad to give you 70 million to buy your company.

Even if you find that the vast majority of people fall at the last minute, they sell their businesses at a low net worth or even break a bone.

This point, Shi Yuzhu is like this, and Song Ruhua is the same, tens of billions of TOP ......"

Qingyun shrugged his shoulders, although there are many reasons for the fall of the TOP, the fundamental point is that from the perspective of the main business, the TOP has fallen behind in the world of great contention.

Niu Qiangdong also understands this truth, he didn't go to the dead to catch the text, the conversation is not a forum, sometimes the meaning is on the line.

"When they are out with cash, the nirvana stage has reached its peak, that is, the fruit-picking stage."

Qingyun said lightly, "Since then, a new good era has arrived, and the industry has entered the sixth stage of the development cycle, the harvest period.

At this stage, the remainder share the vast majority of the market. The leaders of East China and the leaders of South China are fighting back and forth, everyone is peaceful, you can't beat me, I can't beat you, everyone occupies one side, and everything is safe.

Of course, there is another situation that you don't dare to kill me, and I don't dare to kill you, which must be combined with the general trend of the country's economic development.

When the country develops its domestic economy, you must have an opponent, and when the country starts a national economic competition, the state will help you kill the opponent, or help the opponent kill you.

In this cycle, the 'leftovers' have become the 'winners', and the entire industry has entered a stage of stability and long-term stability.

For example, my father-in-law's feed industry, which was originally a hundred schools of thought, has now left less than 5 brands, after a long period of integration and nirvana, it has entered the harvest period of steady development.

Stable market structure, stable customers, and stable upstream and downstream relationships have allowed these leading enterprises to obtain the same profit level as in the growth period, but after rounds of survival of the fittest, the scale of these enterprises is dozens or even hundreds of times that of before.

As you can imagine, these companies can easily recover all the large 'losses' generated during the past consolidation period and nirvana period, and the enterprises finally ushered in their most wonderful state of development - large-scale profitability.

This is the greatest reward for enterprises that have gone through the cycle, and the greatest reward for professional entrepreneurs in the industry.

In a sense, they are the final kings of the industry, the ultimate winners of this 'race to seize Antarctica'.

We look at many of the world's top 500 companies, Wal-Mart, Ford, Sansang, Shell, LV Group, Kyocera, Pfizer and other super-large enterprises in various industries, in fact, they are the ultimate nirvana and harvester in a round of fighting.

Many large enterprises have been hoarding earnings for decades, far from the revenue and strength we see now, and the wealth is amazing!

At this time, the taboo is to stop progressing as a vested interest, because the development of the industry has not stopped. ”

Qingyun nodded the table, "I said that there are seven stages of the industry's cycle development, and if the progress stops in the sixth stage, then in the seventh stage, the company will die without a place to be buried, and it will die faster and more tragically than the previous six stages."

As the industry enters a stable harvest period, a new force begins to brew.

New technological innovations and business model innovations have begun to develop, which is essentially that with the progress of society, end customers have put forward higher needs - faster, more convenient, and more comfortable......

This is the driving force for new change in an industry.

On this basis, a new industry will be born on the original industry, or the original industry will undergo subversive changes in industry logic and business logic.

This means that new opportunities are beginning to brew.

New technologies, increasing GDP per capita, end-user profiles, national infrastructure construction......

All of this will lead to a major change in the underlying logic of the entire social economy, which will give rise to the emergence of a new track in the same industry, or even a new industry. ”

……

(End of chapter)