058 I choose to go short

After negotiating the brokerage contract, the rest of the work can be approached with trader Andrew, but Raymond chooses to accompany Bill to analyze the market with Andrew in order to show his attention.

"Just in the first three trading days of the week, both silver futures and spot prices broke through the $45 mark an ounce. While I regret that you sold those three futures contracts for $38, now is still a good time to buy silver futures. ”

Andrew pulled out a small notebook out of nowhere, opened it and began to introduce Bill to the changes in the price of silver.

"It's not a pity, I think Mr. Ferrari is bold and must have his own ideas. Maybe he had something else to think about. ”

Raymond lifted his office chair and sat down next to the client, also pulling out a small notebook.

Bill watched the movements of the two men, spread his hands and asked, "Silver has risen to unprecedented heights, what about the price of gold?" I want to know how prices have fluctuated over the past two years. ”

Gold?

Andrew and Raymond glanced at each other, and at the latter's motion, the trader flipped to another page and began to introduce gold futures.

"After President Nixon announced the end of the dollar pegging to gold in '71, the Bretton Woods system gradually collapsed, and the price of gold rose from $42 an ounce in '71 to $240 an ounce in '78. Then it slowly rose in the past two years, until it entered the 80s, and in the first two trading days of the month, the price of gold touched a high of $634. This big bull market continues, and we at Hilson believe that gold is bullish in the long term. ”

Raymond crossed his legs and leaned back in his chair, "Yes, gold is in a big bull market, and although the increase is not as exaggerated as silver in the past eighteen months, it is also worth investing. If Mr. Bill were to buy gold futures, my advice would be to go long and hold them for the long term. ”

To go long is to think that the price of gold will rise, and make money by buying at a low price and selling at a high price.

But Bill didn't want to do that.

"What was the price of New York Mercantile Gold futures at the close of trading yesterday? Is there any good news lately? ”

He asked two questions that he wanted the two professionals to answer.

Andrew is still flipping through the book, and Raymond has already answered the second question: "A few trading days ago, Treasury Secretary Miller announced that the Treasury would no longer sell gold, which made the price of gold break through the $700 mark an ounce on the same day, which may be the strongest positive in recent times." ”

"Yesterday the New York Exchange gold futures closed at $767 an ounce." Andrew finally found the information the customer was looking for.

Bill asked again: "What was the price of gold two years ago?" ”

"In March '78, it was $224 an ounce, and in May '79 it broke through the $500 mark."

Mr. Ferrari looked at Rimon on the side, "Your traders are really responsible. Andrew, you remember, this afternoon, at the $770 $770 buy gold futures short order, there are more than 239,000 US dollars in the account, and I will transfer more than 10,000 dollars, making up 250,000 yuan. Even if you lock in $5,000, you also have $245,000 available, and you can buy all the short orders. If the Exchange Commission increases the margin for each contract, you will advance the additional margin as stated in the brokerage contract. ”

This is his decision on the future of the transaction.

Although he knew more about the price of silver futures because of the silver case of the Hunter brothers, for example, the real collapse of silver was on "Silver Thursday", that is, on a Thursday in late March, when the price of silver fell sharply.

According to the general market, it is possible to make money by shorting the price of silver when it falls. The logic of shorting is to sell at a high price now, and use the contract or physical delivery bought at a low price in the future to earn the difference, and the delay in futures delivery can make this happen.

But because the current situation is so special, the Hunter brothers hold about 150 million ounces of silver spot and 0.6 billion ounces of silver futures, and the vast majority of the remaining institutions are short silver.

That is to say, there is no matching opponent between short and long, and now shorting silver can indeed make money on the books, but the money that the Hunter brothers can lose may not necessarily fall into the hands of small retail investors like Bill, you know, the Hunter brothers later sold all their horse racing horses to pay off the debt, and most of the debts have not been paid off.

Therefore, Bill chooses to play gold, and he does not need to know the highest and lowest prices of gold, but only needs to know that the price of gold will have a V-shaped fluctuation under the influence of government interference, "Silver Thursday", etc.

Go short first, then go long, and make double money.

When the price of gold futures rises about the same, you can sell it and buy treasury bonds.

Because of inflation all the way in the 70s, it reached an annual inflation rate of 13% in 79, and Reagan, who was elected president at the end of the 80s, and his team chose to dry the interest rate to 13.35%, which is the highest interest rate in the past 100 years.

"Mr. Bill, isn't that a little too impulsive?" Rimon was the first to express his uneasiness.

Now that gold is in a bull market, the good news keeps coming, and seeing that the price of gold can break through the $800 mark an ounce, this young customer chose to go short, which made him suspect that Bill had broken his brain while playing football.

"Huh? Short? It was only after jotting down the instructions in another small notebook that Andrew questioned.

He is also not optimistic about Bill's idea, after all, the price of gold is really rising, one or twenty dollars a day.

"Any questions?" Mr. Ferrari puffed his chicken feet, "I am God, you just need to carry out my orders, where is the doubt?" ”

He was in no mood to explain the reason to the two men, so he got up and went to his desk to pick up the calculator and start tinkering.

The principal amount of 245,000 US dollars, which is 1715000 US dollars when leveraged down to seven times, can buy about 2,227 ounces of gold, that is, 20 second-hand goods, which is less than the upper limit of 50 lots in a contract.

"Twenty-two empty orders, purchased in the afternoon. I'll just wait at your company, and I'll call here and let me know when I'm done. ”

Bill gave specific instructions unequivocally.

Andrew looked at the supervisor Raymond, who nodded and said, "Okay, Mr. Ferrari, I will carry out your orders without discount." ”

After that, Bill left here and went to a food stall near Wall Street to settle his lunch, and after two rounds of eating, he returned to Hilson's agency and waited for Andrew's good news.

At about half past one in the afternoon, the responsible trader brought a gold futures contract for twenty-two short orders to Bill.

"I don't understand why you're doing this, but this empty order is yours!"

PS: Ask for a recommendation ticket and ask for a monthly pass.