403 Don't exaggerate, don't be alarmist!
"Upstairs, don't you understand? When did he oppose criticism? He said that he did not object, but what he objected to was that some people use the guise of criticism to seek selfish interests for themselves in international awards, so as to fabricate something to smear our image and undermine the confidence of the people. ”
"I think there is a saying that is right, why does the United States and the West not criticize their own system and the monarch and the aristocracy? And the blood-sucking capitalists. Obviously, people are playing double standards. ”
……
Everyone had a good discussion, and the officials of the Shanghai Film Festival were also very happy, they didn't care who was right and who was wrong, they only cared about whether it brought them attention.
No, the attention of the afternoon forum immediately increased, and many reporters came here, looking forward to what shocking remarks He Fang would also make in the afternoon forum.
It's a pity that no matter how provocative the host and guests are, they just don't answer and are not swayed.
In the afternoon, the next stop of the discussion of Chinese films, the organizers believe that prosperity is false and the crisis is hidden. How can this kind of thing be discussed? Because it is something that has not happened, who will not set up a flag casually, and no one will dare to guarantee the future of things, right?
Even if it is a person like He Fang, even if he can barely make a package ticket, he will not fight, there is no point, let people grab your tail and attack you every day, or ridicule you.
For example, someone clamps his head, and then he is scolded by people with bad intentions every day.
Never underestimate how lowly the means of the people who slander you are, and how morally they will talk to you when they do it? It's simply impossible.
So at the forum in the afternoon, some people kept saying that the prosperity of Chinese films is a false prosperity, and the organizers said that prosperity is to the left, which means that prosperity is radical prosperity, and what will be after radicalization?
Crisis to the right refers to conservative, which means that the awareness of the crisis is too conservative, and the crisis may be more serious than the conservative, and the crisis awareness is not enough.
The forum was attended by experts and scholars in the industry, as well as business owners.
Everyone is saying that the current prosperity of Chinese films is fake, and then listing how many crises are waiting for Chinese films, and then they all look worried.
The host asked He Fang's opinion several times, but He Fang shrugged his shoulders and didn't say much.
In the end, even the reporters couldn't stand it, and they all wanted to go on the field in person to ask where to go.
The host saw that everyone was about to leave, and he couldn't stand it, so he had to take the initiative to ask where to go.
"Director He, what do you think of the false prosperity of Chinese films, as well as the hidden crisis?"
He Fang saw that there was no way back, so he had to pick up the microphone and answer.
"You can think whatever you want, if you think that it is a false prosperity now, it is false, and if you think that crises are everywhere, then you should be a crisis. In fact, this doesn't mean much to me, because no matter how much everyone sings about it, our company will still move towards an annual box office of more than $10 billion.
Of course, no matter how others sing about our situation, we are also the target layout. In a word, we don't change our strategy just because outsiders are singing or singing, that's my opinion. ”
He Fang put down the microphone after speaking, and then the audience was quiet for a while, and then everyone started talking in a low voice.
"Director He, you seem to be a little unimpressed with the topic of our forum, why is this so? Is it wrong that we are discussing? The host asked curiously.
"That's not true, in fact, it makes sense for you to discuss like this, but real companies don't change their goals because of such discussions. It's like every year there are countless people shouting about the China threat, and countless people shouting about China's collapse, is it okay to have these voices? Of course there is a reason for them. But will we change our goals because of these voices? Of course not. ”
Why is this so? Won't you listen to the outside world? The moderator asked.
"Listen, but it won't be the main reference. What if the outside world is there to disrupt your development? To listen or not to listen? Excellent companies will have their own judgment and basis for the future, and may make some fine-tuning due to external discussions, but it will not change because of this.
So, is there any point in a discussion like this today? Yes, but no, depending on whether the company's discretion has changed. He Fang replied.
"And what is your judgment? And on what basis? The moderator asked.
"As I said just now, the development of Chinese films is far from its peak, and now it is only more than 50 billion a year, and my prediction is that the box office will reach more than 10 billion US dollars a year, that is, about 70 billion yuan. This is only a prediction in ten years, if you look at it from the perspective of the next 20 years, the box office market will rise to about 100 billion yuan.
So you're saying it's just false prosperity, what can I say? Saying that's not false enough? Sometimes, as a practitioner, you have to make your own judgment. Let me take real estate as an example, in 08, some people said that house prices had reached their peak, and it was impossible to rise anymore because wages could not keep up with house prices.
But what about the facts? House prices have doubled. In these years, I don't know how many experts, scholars and even practitioners are singing about the decline, but are they declining because of their singing?
Of course, in recent years, there have been many experts and scholars who have been singing about it, saying that housing prices will rise to 350,000 square meters in the future. Do we want to listen to this kind of singing? In fact, no matter what time it is, there are people who will sing about it, and there will be people who will sing about it. Whether it's the film industry, real estate, or stocks, we hear too many arguments every day.
How can you tell which is real and which is fake? As a practitioner in the industry, if you don't know how to analyze and persist, then you will always be led by others, and you are the kind of leek in other people's mouths, harvested by others. ”
He Fang's words made all the foaming guests who had just been discussed at the scene speechless and embarrassed, as if they were those fake experts who cut other people's leeks.
But in fact they are, not as if they were, but really.
"Who is the director, then on what basis do you use to insist on your judgment? I will also tell you about it, so that everyone can learn it. The host said.
"There is no secret to this, it is the simplest supply and demand, a market demand to calculate. First of all, from the perspective of the overall environment, China's future economy will definitely grow, last year was 10.48 trillion US dollars, so according to the lowest growth rate, by 2020, China's GDP will also reach more than 17 trillion.
And the film market will also grow with this growth rate, this is the general trend, from the general trend, our films have not yet prospered to the false situation, and there is still a period of great development. In addition to the general trend, if we look at the demand, Americans watch movies 4-5 times a year, so it supports the scale of their annual box office market of $10 billion.
The average number of movie viewing times a year for Chinese is 0.3 times, that is, about 400 million people a year, while the United States is about 1.2-1.5 billion people. By American standards, our box office would have tripled.
Of course, the premise is that we want to reach the per capita GDP of the United States, of course, this is very difficult, and now we are only a little more than 13% of the per capita GDP of the United States, which is far from it. Even if we don't reach the per capita GDP of the United States, which is only one-third, then our box office market will have to double to about 100 billion per year.
In 2014, our box office market was only 50 billion, which is twice as long as 100 billion, so it is an exaggeration for everyone to talk about the false prosperity of the film market, and I don't think our box office market is now a false prosperity. ”
With the answer of where to go, everyone suddenly realized.
"The crisis that everyone discussed just now is on the right, and several experts have listed the current film industry's excessive pursuit of commercialization and excessive pursuit of marketing methods, what do you think?" The moderator asked again.
"First of all, the audience can be guided and can be led into the pit by fake marketing. However, the level of demand of the audience is gradual, and it will be difficult to fool the audience with some low-quality movies in the future. At that time, I am afraid that I will not be able to fool the audience, and I will only fool the producers who make inferior works.
Secondly, there will be a certain amount of barbaric development in any market during the pioneering period, and there will also be some chaos. However, it is an exaggeration and too one-sided to say that this is an industry crisis based on these chaos alone. Because chaos will always be managed, and it will also be eliminated by the pace of market progress.
Finally, to look at the development of the industry correctly, we must calm down and stand higher to see. Don't be intimidated by the momentum of development, and don't be intimidated by the problems that arise. China's development is the most unexpected speed in the history of the world, and at such a speed, it may produce a speed that feels unreal, and it can also produce problems that can only arise on someone else's side for decades, and on our side, it may appear in just a few years.
We should look at development and problems objectively and correctly, and not follow the crowd, nor exaggerate, let alone be alarmist. If you can't distinguish between these troubled messages, it is likely that some people will be led astray and eventually harvested. ”
He Fang's speech was like a concluding speech, which immediately attracted warm applause from the audience, because he summed it up very well and in place.
(End of chapter)