"It's too late to cram, isn't it too late to come and see these now?" Liang Ying sneered at Bai Shuo.

Bai Shuo put down the book in his hand and quietly closed the Baidu webpage on the computer. Looking back, he was embarrassed and said, "I won't go to school, I will learn while learning, I will learn while I do, hehe."

It turns out that Bai Shuo is making up for his financial knowledge these days. Since the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, he discussed the economic issues of the United States with everyone in the bar and set the next step, Bai Shuo found that he still has a lot of knowledge that he does not have, such as MBS, CDO, what these things are, he is simply half-understood, although he has also taken financial and economic courses in college, but the so-called "the final feeling on paper is shallow, and I never know that this matter must be practiced" Any top talent still has to grow in practice. So these days, Bai Shuo basically let Liang Ying operate the stock market alone, and then secretly made up for it himself. Unexpectedly, he was discovered by Liang Ying and made fun of him ruthlessly.

Liang Ying continued to laugh and said, "Well, yes, Brother Shuo's spirit is still good. Let me tell you a story. ”

"Hmm" I heard that Liang Ying was going to tell a story, and Bai Shuo became interested.

Liang Ying pointed to the Penguin QQ software on the computer screen, and then said: "At the beginning of Xiao Ma's business, QQ's communication protocol was not encrypted, which was very unfavorable to the user's information security. Later, after the penguin grew step by step, in order to solve this problem, Xiao Ma arranged a programmer to develop encryption software. After two weeks, Brother Ma wanted to see where the program was written, so he went to find this programmer, but unfortunately the programmer happened to go out, and there was a book on the principles of encryption on his desk. Brother Xiao Ma picked up the book and looked at it, and was shocked. Because the programmer is still working on the first section of the first chapter of the book, which is titled 'What is encryption?'. In fact, the penguin company was originally crossing the river by feeling the stones, and many cattle in the company started from Xiaobai before, and it was in this state of learning and doing, Brother Xiao Ma took the team to run in small steps, relying on gradual innovation and continuous progress, in order to lead the enterprise company step by step into what it is today, but no god is full of level at the beginning. ”

Seeing Bai Shuo's frequent nods, Liang Ying said to Bai Shuo again: "That's right, Xiaobai."

"Hmm...... I'm not a white, I'm just surnamed Bai." Bai Shuo finally reacted, and Liang Ying continued to make fun of him.

At this time, another news on the Internet attracted Bai Shuo's attention, and Bai Shuo immediately took this opportunity to stop Liang Ying's teasing, and then called Liang Ying to analyze it together. The news that a financial company in the United States issued a profit warning for the fourth quarter of last year and a British company announced a large increase in the subprime housing credit reserve in the United States caused some volatility in the stock market. Bai Shuo searched for relevant information on the Internet and found that various comments in the United States said that the current slowdown in real estate growth is just a normal adjustment after a round of rapid growth, and the follow-up is still optimistic. There are even people who feel that now is a good time to invest in real estate in the United States. Bai Shuo felt that this crisis had begun to appear, and he should speed up his preparations, and when everyone woke up, he would lose the best opportunity to make profits. After a preliminary discussion, Liang Ying and Bai Shuo decided to communicate with Liu Shu of the United States, and then everyone discussed and decided together.

At about 11 o'clock in the evening, Bai Shuo, who had fallen asleep, was woken up by the ringing of the phone, it turned out to be Liang Ying calling, telling Bai Shuo to hurry up and go online, and Kevin was in charge of organizing an emergency video conference. Bai Shuo knew that there must be major news, otherwise Liang Ying would not be so eager, so she immediately got up and turned on the computer and connected to the camera. After a while, when the people arrived, there were still four people: Bai Shuo, Liang Ying, Liu Shu, and Zhong Pengcheng. In the video, Liang Yingxian apologized for calling everyone to a meeting at this time. Bai Shuo scolded him angrily: "Nonsense, we came in the middle of the night, not to listen to your apologies, hurry up and get on the dry goods."

Liang Ying smiled awkwardly before she began to say, "I'll make an opening statement first." To seize this opportunity, we must first understand the underlying causes of this crisis, which will help us to take concrete actions in the next step. First of all, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 70s, the rice dollar became a freely issued currency without policy constraints, the banking industry developed rapidly, and various financial instrument derivatives continued to innovate during this time. With the three oil crises, the bankers' investment in sovereign countries evolved into a sovereign debt crisis, and capital began to be withdrawn into the country. In the 80s, during the Reagan era, expansionary fiscal policy and monetarism flourished, allowing domestic companies to flourish, and the financial industry further contributed to economic expansion, which Soros called the "Reagan Cycle." With the stock market crash in 1987, the economic recession and financial deleveraging of the country plunged the country's economy into a temporary stagnation. At the same time, asset securitization also diversifies risks, so that the country's economy will not regress. By the early 90s, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, world hegemony was established. A large number of military technologies have returned to the civilian sector, the rapid development of the information technology industry has accelerated the process of economic globalization and integration, and cross-border investment and speculation activities have become increasingly frequent. The financial industry has provided great convenience for these investment behaviors, and the prosperity of the country's economy has also brought about rapid population growth. During the period 1990-2001, the annual population growth rate exceeded 1 per cent for 12 consecutive years. At the beginning of the new millennium, the Internet bubble burst, the United States entered the channel of interest rate cuts, and the stocks of Silicon Valley companies plummeted, but the real estate in Silicon Valley continued to heat up during this period. Bankers and investors have experienced the sovereign debt crisis, the stock market crash of traditional industries, and the stock market crash of emerging industries, and suddenly discovered real estate as an excellent investment product, so real estate investment has become a hot object for bankers, major consortia and investors. However, as a consumer-oriented country, since 1995, the cumulative growth of per capita real disposable income of residents in the United States has accounted for 85% of the cumulative growth of consumer expenditure, and the gap between the two is filled by the wealth effect of asset appreciation and demographic dividend. However, due to the serious lack of financial supervision, ordinary people also consume ahead of time through borrowing and participating in speculation, and the phenomenon of frenzied consumption has led to a very serious phenomenon of eating too much food. At present, with the passage of time, the real estate and financial markets continue to prosper, first there is a huge bubble in the stock market, and then the real estate has also reached a period that is unsustainable. So what is the specific performance of the current real estate market in the United States, Liu Shu did a fairly good investigation some time ago, and I think he will be invited to talk about the current situation of the real estate in the United States. ”

Then Liu Shu first made a report to everyone about the situation collected in the past few days: after returning to the United States, Liu Shu immediately used the funds provided to him by Liang Ying and organized a professional team to investigate from four aspects. The first aspect is to carefully study the mortgage data of the United States, which focuses on the understanding and analysis of the overdue data, and finds that the default rate of the housing loan in the United States has been accelerating recently, and has now broken through to more than 5%, which can be said to be a more dangerous range. One of the reasons for the increase in the default rate is that the interest rate commonly used in the United States mortgage is that it has been greatly discounted in the past few years, and the interest rate will continue to increase after that. Since the second half of last year, the preferential interest rates of many subprime loans have expired, and borrowers are faced with high repayment amounts, and gradually people have appeared who cannot repay their loans, resulting in the seizure of their homes. However, due to the long and complex chain of the financial system, these problems have not been effectively transmitted, and the real estate market and the financial sector are still prosperous. Liu Shu predicts that if the rate continues, the default rate may rise to 8% or even higher after six months, and at that time, the real estate crisis predicted by Bai Shuo may erupt.

The second aspect is to investigate the current situation of many real estate projects in the United States, Liu Shu also personally went to several areas, although these houses are all sold out, it seems that the market is very hot, but in fact the vacancy rate of houses is very high, a large number of houses are idle and no one lives, becoming a pure investment product, including one area The occupancy rate is not even 8%, and the ghost town phenomenon is being staged in various parts of the United States.

The third aspect is to investigate the current situation of buying houses in the United States. It is found that the current loan approval for house purchase in the United States is very relaxed, and many reviewers basically have no qualification review for home loan buyers in order to complete more tasks, and even help real estate companies and home buyers to cheat, and some groups who have no legitimate income at all can easily buy a house and apply for a loan. What's more interesting is that in the survey, it was also found that at present, the United States has also introduced a kind of refinancing on the mortgage, that is, after the house price rises, you can apply for a reappraisal of the house, and then reissue the loan according to a certain percentage according to the new appraised value. In this way, even if you have bought a house a long time ago and have not paid off the loan, you can re-mortgage the house to get more loans.

The fourth aspect is that after Liu Shu analyzed the situation in the first three aspects, he found that although the default rate is rising, it does not seem to have the slightest impact on the real estate of the United States, and some cases of credit problems have obviously appeared, but the credit evaluation has not decreased. So the day before yesterday, Liu Shu conducted a secret investigation of the credit evaluation system of the United States through his own relationship, although there is no direct evidence, but Liu Shu is basically sure that there is a lot of moisture in the credit score of the mortgage in the United States (of course, Bai Shuo They only need to know the truth, and do not need to have conclusive evidence to sanction those who violate the rules).

If there were still some reservations about Bai Shuo's judgment before, after these understandings, Liu Shu is now convinced of Bai Shuo's analysis and believes that this crisis will have a high probability.

Then, Zhong Pengcheng talked about what he has learned recently: first of all, China's economy is still improving, the A-share market is optimistic, and due to the temporary signs of slowing down in the world economic situation, this has also led to more and more hot money pouring into China, which continues to promote the rise of real estate and stock markets. However, there is no so-called sense of crisis in the world, but I just think that this is a new round of economic structural adjustment or regional adjustment, and when the operation of A-shares is completed, and when the hot money returns again, it will drive the economic recovery of other regions of the world. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the phenomenon of economic overheating will occur again in the near future.

On the other hand, he will collect some of the information and Liu Shu these days to pass on the data information, let the professional team through mathematical quantification repeated analysis and deduction, feel that according to the current development, in the next year, the probability of a full-scale outbreak of the real estate crisis in the United States is 80%, of course, if there are major events, such as major policy reforms, the state bailed out the market, major changes in the international political or economic situation or even the outbreak of war and other events, it may also make the crisis early or postponed, or even not for the time being. Overall, there is a high probability of the outbreak of this crisis, but there are also many uncertainties.

When it comes to mathematical quantitative research, Liang Ying told his family about a Chinese mathematical genius, Li Xianglin. It was he who took advantage of Gaussia

Copula invented credit portfolio pricing, enabling rapid pricing for CDOs and was highly regarded by Wall Street. The principle is that, under the premise that the correlation of default does not change with time, the correlation between individual assets and individual assets is calculated by using normal distribution, and a single-factor Gaussian Copula matrix is obtained to calculate the asset portfolio PO

TFOLIO's probability of default, after removing the correlation penalty, results in the asset's present value pricing. Translated in human terms, it is a mo obtained at different times in different places

It is impossible to default at the same time, that is, the loss here can be wiped out by the profit there, as long as my volume is large enough and the geographical distribution is random enough, a positive benefit can be achieved. This is actually the same as not putting eggs in one basket.

But in fact, he ignores systemic risk in the financial sector, and this fool knows that financial volatility is asymmetrical and fat-tailed, and that the normal distribution of risk will fail in extreme cases, and the correlation between variables will increase sharply. At the same time, the input of some parameters is empirical, i.e., our real estate market has not had major problems in 70 years from the Great Depression to the present, then I can use these 70 years of data to measure the level of asset defaults in the future. Li Xianglin has also cautioned against the use of these models and tools. It's a pity that few of the Wall Street guys really understand math, and they're just looking for a simple tool to get to their point.

Bai Shuo thought about all the information, and asked Liu Shu if he had investigated the major real estate companies in the United States and the banks and insurance companies associated with them. Liu Shu said that at present, the profitability of such enterprises in the United States is gradually declining, but everyone still thinks that it is only a temporary adjustment. Some companies have already had a lot of problems in the fourth quarter of last year, but these problems have been artificially weakened, because as long as they wait for a new round of growth in local production capacity, these problems will be solved.

After more than a few hours of discussion, it was already dawn in Huaguo. Everyone has said all that needs to be said, but someone needs to make the final decision. Bai Shuo stomped back and forth in the room, the surrounding environment was quiet, and Bai Shuo's subtle footsteps were also exceptionally clear, echoing in the empty night. Everyone on the computer screen was also lost in their own thoughts, and it seemed to be the silence before a major event broke out.