Chapter 48: The mountain rain is coming, and the wind is full of buildings
After a long time, Bai Shuo finally stopped and sat down in front of the computer again, everyone knew that he had a plan when they saw Bai Shuo's actions, and they were waiting for Bai Shuo's decision. Bai Shuo saw that everyone had returned to the state, so he said: "Let's talk about it, if we want to short the real estate of the United States immediately, what should we do?"
"Have you thought about it, is it time to make a move?" Liang Ying asked immediately.
Bai Shuo continued: "Lao Liang, you can't miss the opportunity. Although you never told me the secret behind you. But I know that you've also been waiting for an opportunity, an opportunity that will make you strong enough to bring you to the forefront. Now that this opportunity has come, of course it may also leave you with nothing again, what do you want to choose?"
Liang Ying said almost without hesitation: "Okay, his mother." ”
Zhong Pengcheng said excitedly: "Damn, we are going to prepare to defend Emperor Mi, I am excited to think about it." ”
Bai Shuo grinned and said, "It's not just Mi Di, it's possible that it's the enemy of the whole world." ”
"Liu Shu, if we want to do the real estate of the empty rice country, what is the way to make the greatest return? I don't care about the risk, as long as the return is the largest, we will do the most ruthless. Liang Ying asked Liu Shu firmly, and also emphasized that the maximum benefit should be achieved.
Liu Shu thought for a while and said: "Shorting the stock market is the most convenient and direct way, and we can even find a way to operate directly in the bare air." However, such an approach needs to choose a good time, when everyone is optimistic and the market is rising, it is undoubtedly suicidal, and if you wait for the crisis to break out in full swing, it is undoubtedly impossible to get the maximum benefit. ”
"No, this is the second phase of deployment. We need to make the first pot of gold in this crisis before the stock market is volatile, otherwise we will not have enough money even if the stock market is as we expected. And if the crisis really reaches the point of being out of control, and all economic means are ineffective, it cannot be ruled out that the United States may forcibly ban shorting the stock market, especially naked short trading is likely to be stopped. To hit the snake and hit the seven inches, we have to find a way to hit with one hit. Bai Shuo immediately rejected Liu Shu's opinion.
There was silence again.
Zhong Pengcheng seemed to think of something, and said: "At present, there are a lot of securitization things in the United States on housing loans, and maybe you can start with these things." If the housing bubble bursts, these things will be the first to be affected, then the stock market, and then the real industry. Maybe you can think about how it works from the mortgage securities side. ”
After Zhong Pengcheng's words, everyone fell into thinking again, and time passed like this.
After a while, Liu Shu said: "There are still some methods, and we must lay out them immediately, but the risk may be relatively large." ”
"I said that no matter the risk, as long as the return is maximum, don't sell it, say it quickly. Liang Ying said with some eagerness.
Liu Shu thought about it again: "Just like Peng Cheng said, if you consider starting with mortgage mortgage securities, you can only short MBS." ”
"How exactly?" Bai Shuo's eyes lit up, and he felt that the direction should be right, but he was not very good at these.
Liu Shu continued: "At present, in addition to MBS and CDO, there is also something called CDS in the US market, that is, the credit default swap of mortgage securities, which is actually a gamble with banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions. We pay them insurance premiums on a certain scale, betting on the decline of real estate, and betting on the massive default of those mortgages. If the price does fall by then, they will pay the mortgage securities we insured. In this way, we can reap the maximum benefit by paying a small amount of money each month, but if the house price does not fall as we want for a long time, the cost we pay is also very substantial. In addition, if you participate in CDS investment, there will be a certain access mechanism, and we cannot participate in it personally. ”
"What do you need?" Bai Shuo asked.
"It needs to be supported by an institution that has signed an ISDA agreement, which is an international swap and derivatives association. Liu Shu further explained.
When Bai Shuo heard this, he immediately said: "The matter is man-made, since we want to do something special, it is impossible to rely on our own strength, and the next step is definitely to find a large number of financial institutions to cooperate." I suggest that the first step is to short these mortgage securities and CDOs. As for the second step, I had to improvise at that time. I think there are some things that we need to discuss right away. ”
Then there was an in-depth discussion, until it was dawn and the concrete plan was finally formed:
Bai Shuo is responsible for the overall coordination of this plan, analyzing and grasping the various nodes of the action, and providing everyone with the direction and goal of unified action.
Liang Ying and Zhong Pengcheng were responsible for finding a number of financial institutions to use as a platform for the operation, and were responsible for solving IDSA-related problems. In addition, Liang Ying is responsible for the overall arrangement of the plan funds and cooperates with Bai Shuo for overall coordination.
Liu Shu was responsible for the early stage of the United States, and immediately began to arrange a professional team to contact the major financial institutions in the United States, and purchased a large number of CDS at a cost of 1%-3%/year, and also bought various financial instruments for shorting CDO in the market. In short, look for all opportunities that can be shorted in rice real estate.
In addition, Bai Shuo also proposed to establish a professional and loyal talent team from now on, not only this plan, because in Bai Shuo's heart, this plan is just the beginning, and there will be more or even bigger things to do in the future, without a loyal and reliable talent team, it is not enough to support their ambitions.
Liang Ying felt a little bitter at this time, obviously engaging in such a huge plan, with the more than 20 million in their hands now, it was not enough. He believed that the snake swallowed the elephant, but he did not dare to think about an ant trying to swallow the elephant. But he's really ready to do it, at all costs, maybe it's the last chance.
Turning off the computer, Bai Shuo hurriedly went to bed and prepared to sleep for a while, but he couldn't sleep. He thought about it a lot, this time the plan was too big, and if he didn't grasp it accurately, the result of failure was not something he could afford. In fact, with Bai Shuo's current situation, he can already be regarded as a small rich man in China, and if he works steadily, it will not be a problem to live a rich and worry-free life. But if you fail this time, not only will you have nothing, but you will even be saddled with an unimaginable astronomical debt, and even this failure is the end of your life. But Bai Shuo, who already knows what it's like to live a mediocre life, is no longer willing to live like that for the rest of his life, in this life, he must do something he wants to do but dare not do. The day has fully lit up, and a new day has begun. Bai Shuo got up and came to the window, opened the curtains, and took a deep breath. Today's weather seems to be a little gloomy, and a cold wind with rain is blowing on Bai Shuo's face, which is really about to come.
Everything went according to plan. Liang Ying and Zhong Pengcheng quickly found financial institutions that they could work with, and through these institutions as a platform, they implemented the established plan. Liu Shu's team went to one after another investment banks, insurance companies, and real estate companies in the United States. Soon, agreements were reached with several institutions to purchase credit default swaps (CDS) for mortgage securities. Under these agreements, an average of just over $1 million per month is required to provide $600 million worth of default coverage. But Liang Ying felt that it was not enough, so Liu Shu further increased his capacity, and at the same time, Liu Shu's team also bought a large number of various short-selling CDO products in major institutions. These behaviors of Liu Shu's team are still a small stone on Wall Street, which has caused ripples in the industry. For a while, everyone said that there was a bunch of fools on Wall Street, throwing money away for nothing, and major institutions were vying to sell CDS. But some people found some different flavors from it, and began to follow Liu Shu's example and shorted the rice real estate market.
Bai Shuo continued to make up for all kinds of knowledge theories, he felt that the war was imminent, but in addition to the things in his memory, he lacked a lot. Think about those time-traveling dramas, no matter which dynasty you are not familiar with at all, you can mix the wind and water, and you have to be windy and rainy. But I am in the era I live in, how can I feel that it is still very difficult. After thinking about it, it seems that those TV series are all deceptive, if modern people really travel to different dynasties, it is estimated that the first round will be killed as monsters and idiots because of customs, language, writing, ideas and other issues, and those who are lucky enough to survive the first round will probably be suffocated by such a completely different era. In short, there are thousands of ways to die. Bai Shuo thought about it a lot, but what he never expected was that they were almost cornered by something that should have been a happy event.
On this day, Liang Ying, who had just sat in front of the computer, was surprised to find that the stock aerospace steel structure they invested heavily in was suspended. Liang Ying said to Bai Shuo excitedly for a while: "This stock has really been caught by us, I estimate that after the information is disclosed, the opening will definitely skyrocket." ”
Bai Shuo also asked very happily: "Pay more attention to what the specific situation is, by the way, how long will it be suspended, and when will the news be disclosed?"
Liang Ying said: "I don't know about this, it looks like it will take a long time." But if there is a big benefit, it is worth the wait. ”
Bai Shuo always felt that something was wrong, and suddenly said to Liang Ying with a frightened face: "Oh no." ”
Liang Ying was shocked, first looked at Bai Shuo suspiciously, and then a panicked look also appeared.
Both knew what was going on. At present, in addition to holding this stock, the other funds in the account have been made in the early stage of the planned action, and there is not much left. If the stock is frozen, it means that their cash flow is completely broken. There are a few days before the interest payment date of the stock market allocation, which is not much, and it can still be handled. But a week later, it was the day to pay more than 800,000 bank mortgages, and there were not enough funds at that time. What's even worse is that two weeks later is the day when Liu Shu pays CDS-related fees according to the agreement, which will cost more than 7 million, not counting the money for those sporadic short-selling products that have recently signed a purchase agreement, and according to Liang Ying's requirements, Liu Shu has expanded a lot of new business, and it is said that there are tens of millions of payments to be paid in the future, and this amount is still increasing. At this time, the two of them were in a hurry.
"Liang Ying, when do you estimate when this stock will be released? No, it can't be released, we have to let it make money, it is enough to maintain our plan, I estimate that after the thaw, we will have to hold on for another ten trading days before we can sell it." ”
"I guess it should be fine in about a month. ”
"That means we're going to have to figure out how to get through at least six weeks, at least 42 days, and then consider some unexpected factors, so let's be prepared to stick with two months. ”
Liang Ying was in charge of the capital plan, and at this time she thought about it in her heart: "150,000 after four days, 820,000 after 7 days, 2 million after 10 days, 7.26 million after 14 days, and 12 million after 25 days." If we insist on two months, it means that we have to find at least 45 million bridge funds as soon as possible. But now that we have almost exhausted all the channels we can get funds, there is no other way for the time being. ”
Bai Shuo thought for a while: "Can you sell some Hongwan's properties?"
Liang Ying shook her head and smiled bitterly: "At that time, when operating those loans, there were some periodic regulations, our properties could not be resold within one year, and early repayment within two years would also result in 20% liquidated damages. ”
Bai Shuo saw this provision at that time, but Liang Ying told Bai Shuo not to care about the terms, so she didn't think much about it. Bai Shuo was anxious: "Liang Ying, even if there is no such thing as the stock being suspended, haven't you considered that we also don't have more than 40 million? Since all the channels have been used up, your confidence that Liu Shu will make the total amount of CDS so large? If the capital chain is broken, we will die first before the day when the crisis arrives." ”
Liang Ying's eyes were also a little scarlet at this time, and explained: "I have carefully studied this stock, and there are indeed signs of starting, and you also said that once it is launched, it will be a small number of times, I calculated, as long as it starts, it should be enough for us to hold on for two or three months, and as for what will happen after two or three months, we will find another way." As long as it can hold on for a few more months, Hongwan's assets will be unfrozen, and it's just a big deal to pay some liquidated damages. That will be enough for us to sustain ourselves until the economic crisis comes. But if we don't let Liu Shu and them make a move now, when those people on Wall Street have reflected, can we still eat such a large amount of CDS?"
"But you just missed that this stock will start in this way, right, hehe." Bai Shuo was also speechless at this time, and he couldn't blame Liang Ying, after all, everyone makes mistakes, and this matter has also been discussed by everyone, and if there is a problem, we must face it together.