But if we start in three or five years, then we are lagging behind, so we have to do it in 2012.

How many ordinary people there are in the country, how many breeding and planting industries, this dare not look at how much each household uses, but must be measured by the market base.

Well, there are difficulties, and there are ways to solve them, Zhang Xiaobei still did a lot of research in the early stage, and paid attention to a lot of subtle changes in the coal market.

Including the transfer of customers from the Tang provincial market to the Qin provincial market, Zhang Xiaobei noticed it.

What's the matter if you just report difficulties to the leader, is the leader okay to block himself?

Therefore, this report is to explain the difficulties clearly, and also explain the ways to solve the difficulties clearly, otherwise, your report will not be complete.

Liu Xiangbo nodded after listening, obviously with an attitude of approval.

Of course, what does Liu Xiangbo do, can he not pay attention to the market when he is the boss?

So Liu Xiangbo must know the market trends, but where the specific source is, Zhang Xiaobei has to tell him.

Of course, at Liu Xiangbo's level, there must be a lot of news he has come into contact with, but Zhang Xiaobei said this, and a lot of things were strung together.

And sorted out a main line, throwing away those non-major factors, so that the idea is clear at once.

This is known as refining the principle of systematization and completeness.

And then say, you're talking about the big aspect, so what are the influencing factors of the small aspect?

Zhang Xiaobei said that there are four main points in the small aspect, and there are many more subtle reasons, so I will not go into details.

The first, the transport impact. The last time the Guanzhou Railway Bureau has come to investigate, the freight reform is estimated to take less than a year and a half to be implemented, and even next year there may be new actions.

In this way, although the mechanism on the railroad has been revitalized, for us, the competition may be more intense.

In the past, it was said that there was a single plan for a single train, and there may not be such a thing as a planned single train in the future, and even ordinary people can directly contact the railway to do transportation business.

At that time, the transportation capacity of Taihang Station will definitely be tight, so the first point is the transportation problem.

We have to talk to the Guanzhou Railway Bureau about this, and our capacity must be guaranteed every year.

And from now on, we must pay attention to the implementation assessment of the railway plan, and we can't just report the plan, and the cash is not high.

In the future, who can get railway capacity depends on whose plan has a high fulfillment rate, although retail investors will affect us, but to suppress us, there is not so much ability.

Moreover, their plan to be fulfilled, because there is no guarantee of supply, it should not be high.

Therefore, in the future, we must insist on self-selling coal, find manufacturers, find direct users, and even sell directly to the people.

As for selling to the surrounding intermediate business customers, that is, the coal yard, that is to add blockage to ourselves, people buy our coal, and then compete with us for transportation capacity?

Now that we've said the first, it's time to talk about the second reason. The second reason is the release of coal energy in the surrounding area.

In 2008, wasn't the integration of resources, and the policy of "reforming the small and building the big in the middle" was implemented for three or four years, and next year it will definitely see great results.

"Guan Xiao" has been completed, and small coal mines are now less than 300,000 tons, not to mention Binzhou, and the entire Tang Province cannot be seen.

The merger and reorganization of some coal mines by medium-sized coal enterprises has also been completed, such as us, such as other medium-sized groups in Tang Province.

In addition, every county in Tang Province has set up a group, and no matter what the nature is, at least the group has been established.

However, the first two items are to reduce and control production capacity, and "building a university" is a job to increase production capacity, which is completely different.

The province has approved some new resources for the group, and since 2012, the output will be slowly released.

Zhang Xiaobei said that as far as he knows, it is planned to be put into operation next year, and said that Binzhou is large, and within Longhai County, there are approvals for coal contracting companies, black foreign trade companies, and some large state-owned enterprises for cross-border approval, adding up to a total production capacity of nearly 8 million tons.

In 2012, the part of the mine under construction will start joint trial operation, and some will enter normal production, and the production capacity will be released to varying degrees, which will cause certain pressure on Jinsheng's sales.

But in terms of production capacity, this is almost the production capacity of another Jinsheng Group, which is amazing.

In this situation, we have no other way but to go ahead of others, compete for customers, and preemptively reduce prices.

This is the real reason why I don't want to increase the price since October.

Liu Xiangbo listened to these two points and thought that when the time comes, these coal mines will not grab the railway capacity with you, or the transportation fleet will not grab with you, or the customers will not grab with you, then the best way is to occupy the customer market with attractive prices.

Zhang Xiaobei continued to talk about the third point, that is, the state of customer demand next year.

To be honest, the economic crisis in the Stars and Stripes country has been raging for a long time, and many of our manufacturers have not been affected by it, and the overall demand market is not very good.

Zhang Xiaobei said that according to his communication with the real production and use manufacturers, most of the manufacturers have basically abundant inventories at the end of the year, that is to say, people do not need so many goods for the time being, and now they take coal, just be prepared.

In addition, before and after the Spring Festival, some manufacturers started production for the sake of safe production. In other words, this year is not the time to finish the task of rushing to produce the year, this safety is a big deal, you have to let the people spend the year safely, so this production, if it can be controlled, it will be controlled, and the demand for coal will naturally be controlled.

Another point is even more terrifying, since mid-November, as a transit base of the inland port, Fangzhai Port, Louzhou Port, coal inventory remains high, the downstream customer demand of the port is not very strong.

It is expected that in the first quarter after the beginning of the year, with the recovery of agricultural production and the gradual recovery after the shutdown of coal mines, the coal market will continue, of course, after a Spring Festival shutdown, they also need to replenish stocks.

However, with the arrival of the off-season in the second quarter, the chemical plant enters a state of maintenance, and the demand will shrink further.

Zhang Xiaobei said that according to his own prediction, next year's lump of charcoal is estimated to drop 200 yuan/ton, and the final coal will have to lose more than 250 yuan/ton.

This is our judgment based on the existing customer group, and the price of the surrounding coal mines is estimated to be more than 300 yuan/ton.

This is only 2012, Zhang Xiaobei also said that Liu Dong must be mentally prepared, and the situation in 2013 is estimated to be more serious.

Speaking of this, Liu Xiangbo lit another cigarette and said a rare sentence: "Well, you continue." ”

Zhang Xiaobei knew that the leader listened to himself and settled accounts at the same time. So Zhang Xiaobei didn't want to say too fast.

I said that I will say one last thing, you can listen to it, and I will not say much about the superfluous.

Liu Xiangbo nodded and raised his chin.

Zhang Xiaobei said that the fourth point is the customer's affordability.

At present, after communication with end customers, the profitability in 2011 is not very satisfactory. After calculations, chemical companies have reached the limit of their ability to bear coal prices.

Urea is only selling for more than 1,900 now, and our charcoal alone is only 1,400, how much do you think they can earn? Not to mention earning, there must be some companies that have begun to lose money.

In the power industry, although power plants have some demand after the adjustment of electricity prices by 3 cents, the cost problem is still troubled.

Although 3 cents is already very good for the price of electricity, the price of coal is still as if it is not fatal, a day or two is okay, but after such a long time, the power plant is basically not profitable.

Speaking of steel, rebar was sold for 4,600 tons at the end of the year, and it was 5,200 tons in May. Of course, steel is still making money now, but what about next year?

It's like this, but it's still a trend of price reduction.

So, everyone is having a hard time.