Chapter 153: Deduction
Sun Hongbin's face was flushed when he heard this, not ashamed, but excited.
"Papapa Originally, the two of them were just talking in a whisper in the venue, and they hadn't attracted the attention of others. But Sun Hongbin's applause, more eyes focused on the two whispering people.
The two were startled, hurriedly confessed to the people at the same table, got up and left the table and ran to the sofa on the first floor of the theater to continue talking.
Sun Hongbin agreed from the bottom of his heart: "Ming people don't say dark words, Xiao Zhang always said this, most of them, I have indeed thought of it." It's just that I had a gentleman's agreement with Lao Liu back then, as long as he is in Lianxiang for a day, I will not enter the IT circle again, so I know that there is a great opportunity, but I can't tear down the corner of Lianxiang. β
Zhang Chen shook his head, "Mr. Sun, don't talk about tearing down the corners, the PC market is very big, there are at least ten years of geometric growth, a company can't eat it at all, and no matter how good the company is, it's the same." There must be competition in this market, and we and Lianxiang can find our own way to survive. Not to mentionγγγγγ Zhang Chen showed a meaningful expression, "What's more, no competitors are not a good thing, and it may not be far from extinction." β
Sun Hongbin nodded, did not continue the discussion on this topic, and returned to the topic: "I understand what Mr. Zhang meant, I see that Yuan Qing has miscalculated." However, we hit it off at first sight today, I am a few years older than you, and I can call you brothers. As a brother, I really want to remind you that if Lianxiang doesn't succeed in the acquisition, and the price war hasn't hit you, then you have to be careful of off-market moves. After all, Lianxiang is an enterprise under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the government has a strong relationship. β
Zhang Chen smiled, "Thank you Brother Hongbin for reminding me, I will be careful." β
Sun Hongbin looked at Zhang Chen a little disappreciatively, and sighed secretly in his heart, he was still too young, but it was not good to say anything.
Zhang Chen saw that Sun Hongbin was a little interested, smiled, and suddenly said: "Don't talk about my, Brother Bin seems to have won the real estate development qualification a few days ago, and it seems that he is going to make great achievements in the field of development?"
When it comes to real estate, Sun Hongbin is interested and talks about the real estate development opportunities in Huaxia in the future. He was not a person with sharp words and eloquent words, and when he was excited, he didn't say what he wanted.
Zhang Chen didn't care, after all, everyone has their own strengths, don't look at Sun Hongbin's clumsy words, but he has a splendid chest, so Zhang Chen did not show the slightest impatience, but listened to Sun Hongbin's exposition of his real estate operation philosophy with great interest.
Sun Hongbin's concept, to put it bluntly, is one word: "fast"! Martial arts in the world are only fast and unbroken.
"Therefore, as long as the state cancels the welfare housing, the suppressed housing demand will definitely explode, and when the time comes, whoever can shorten the project cycle faster will be able to claim the king in the real estate industry!"
Zhang Chen smiled, "Listening to your words is better than reading for ten years." But Brother Bin, I have a little doubt. Indeed, you've now built a project according to the model you said. But I wonder if you have considered the risks of this model?"
This time it was Sun Hongbin's turn to disagree, "There is no risk in doing things, as long as the risk can be controlled, there is nothing." β
Zhang Chen nodded and said, "That's right, if the risk can be controlled, of course it's no problem." Brother Bin, let's make a deduction, what do you think?"
Sun Hongbin said curiously: "Deduction?"
Zhang Chen smiled and said: "Yes, deduce what the final result will be if you operate according to your model." β
Sun Hongbin was very interested, "Okay, how do you say to deduce?"
Zhang Chen pondered: "This kind of operation model can expand very quickly in the initial stage, about six to eight years, it can become a regional hegemon company, before that, as long as there is no major change in national policy, the risk is not great." Then, the beginning of our deduction starts from six years later, your Shunchi real estate has become the overlord of Bincheng and is ready to enter the whole country. What do you think?"
Sun Hongbin was full of interest, "Haha, I didn't expect you to have quite confidence in me, brother." No problem. β
Zhang Chen said: "When Shunchi starts to expand, what are you going to do?"
Sun Hongbin Zhizhu said: "Of course, it is to take land across the board, look at a regional market, quickly take land in the area to be developed in this market, and then develop it with the help of loans and financing, and quickly enter the stage of sales collection, which I am confident can do within 10 months." In fact, the turnaround rate for the project I developed before was 7 months. β
Zhang Chen smiled, "Okay, according to what you said, how much land are you going to take?" For example, at this time, you have 2 billion cash in your hand, of which the financing part is 1.5 billion, and the financing cost is about 13%. How are you going to take the land?"
Sun Hongbin pondered for a while, "I will take out more than 1.5 billion yuan to roll out and acquire land, as long as my turnover rate is fast enough, and a project cycle is completed within 10 months, my financing cost will be reduced from 13% to 10%." β
Zhang Chen nodded, "Okay, at this time, the problem comes, if at this time, the country suddenly changes its policy, because the housing prices are rising too fast, suppressing the real estate, and not giving you a loan, at the same time, the people are holding the currency to buy because everyone is singing about the decline of the real estate, and your house suddenly can't be sold, what should you do?"
Sun Hongbin was stunned for a moment, "This possibility is very small, but since it is a deduction, I will seek listing when the time comes." I believe that the people's demand for housing is always there, and the government can't suppress it, and at most one year, they will buy a house again. Through the listing, as long as I survive this year, I believe that housing prices will soar, my land acquisition cost is low, and I will make a lot of money when the time comes. β
Zhang Chen asked: "What if the A-share listing is not successful? You must know that although the listing is simple now, the state's supervision of the securities market is becoming stricter and stricter. Especially to the extent of regulating real estate, I believe that the CSRC will not approve your listing request. β
Sun Hongbin put himself in this situation, his face was a little heavy, "If the domestic listing fails, we will seek overseas listing, such as Hong Kong." β
Zhang Chen continued to ask, "Your profit rate is so low, your debt ratio is so high, the Hong Kong stock market is more strictly supervised than the mainland, and the audit is cumbersome, what if it doesn't work out? β
Sun Hongbin was silent, "If this is the case, there will be other financing channels, and at most the introduction of equity investment can be solved." β
Zhang Chen said with a smile: "Brother Bin, the wall is down, everyone pushes it, and the trees are scattered." As long as you show a little defeat, when the time comes, it is not only the suppliers and civil contractors who will ask you for money, but also banks, governments, your other financing channels, and so on. I'm afraid that you won't even be able to get the follow-up land transfer money at that time. β
"Real estate is a capital-intensive industry, and it is about cash flow, but the model you just mentioned is too risky for cash flow. As long as several external factors such as policy, market, and financing costs come together, cash flow disruption is inevitable!"
"It's naΓ―ve to expect someone else to come to your rescue when your cash flow is broken. After all, the most important thing in this world is the icing on the cake, and the most lacking is charcoal in the snow. In the early stage of entrepreneurship, this model is indeed not very risky, because the plate is small, and the funding gap will not be too serious. But when you enter the whole country, maybe your funding gap will change from tens of millions to hundreds of millions, hundreds of millions to billions, billions of funds, how can you make up for the funding gap?"
"Cash flow is the lifeblood of a business, and this is especially true for real estate companies. There is nothing wrong with high turnover and high efficiency. But it must be to ensure the health of cash flow, but the operating model you just set for Shunchi completely ignores the cash flow risk and blindly expands. In the end, it will inevitably end up being dead and the country destroyed. β
Sun Hongbin listened to the cold sweat trickling down, but suddenly shook his head and said, "Impossible, you deliberately ignored our ability to turn around." If the external conditions change, it is impossible for an enterprise not to perceive it, and it is completely possible to lay out in advance to avoid risks. β
Zhang Chen said leisurely: "Yes, but the so-called Gao Zhou transfer enterprise you just now has lost the ability to turn around." Moreover, our preset condition is that you have dominated the Bincheng market and begun to go to the whole country. With a certain volume, it is even more difficult to turn around. β
"Brother Bin, you kindly reminded me just now, I reciprocated, I really didn't scare you. If you want to be the king in the real estate industry, the means should be the king. Blindly domineering, I'm afraid you will repeat the mistakes of the overlord of Western Chu. β