1787 A More Realistic Choice

Chen Qilin briefly talked about the evaluation of the three district plans, and the Dongsha Island plan is the most consistent with Chen Qilin's target planning, and it can also best meet the future development needs of China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, but the corresponding construction cost is greater and the construction requirements are also high.

The supporting facilities in Chunshan District are relatively good, and there is a shipyard in Chunshan District, the construction cost is relatively low, and the cycle will be relatively short, but the development space is not as abundant as Dongsha Island in Huixun District.

The plan for the Chundong New Area is somewhere in between, but listening to Chen Qilin, it seems that the China Shipbuilding Corporation is more inclined to the plan of the Chundong New Area, and the city is more supportive of the Chundong New Area.

As a national-level new area, Chundong New Area itself enjoys the tilt of various policies and resources of the state and Pujiang City, so the choice of Chundong New Area is likely to involve the will of the higher-ups.

When it was Bao Feiyang's turn to speak, Bao Feiyang pondered for a while before saying: "I very much agree with what Mr. Chen mentioned in his speech just now, that is, we must focus on the long-term and the future, so in the long run, to what extent can Jiangnan Ship develop?"

"I'll give you a simple example"

Bao Feiyang said: "Last year, China's GDP ranked seventh in the world, and we won't talk about per capita GDP, as the world's third largest superpower in terms of area and population, China's future GDP will not only catch up with and surpass the United States, and its economic aggregate will reach the top three in the world, even surpassing Japan, there should be no problem, right?"

At this time, the Chinese threat theory was already on the rise, and the World Bank's GDP calculated by purchasing power parity (PPP) had made China the second largest economy. Therefore, Bao Feiyang said that China's economic aggregate has reached the world's top three, even surpassing Japan's, everyone is not surprised, even in terms of exchange rate, China's GDP is now only the sixth in the world, but everyone believes that as long as we adhere to reform and opening up, maintain a high growth rate of economic development, become the world's top three, or even surpass Japan, it is something that can be achieved in recent years.

Of course, it will not be so easy to surpass the United States, after all, according to the exchange rate, the GDP of Japan, which ranks second, is less than half that of the United States, which can be said to be an economic power, and the United States is a superpower.

Bao Feiyang said: "As such a big country, China is not only an economic power, but also a military power, and not only the army, but also the air force and navy will inevitably become a world power. ”

"China's army is one of the best in the world, and even the United States does not dare to despise it, but the tonnage and quality of our navy's warships are probably not as famous in the world, and in terms of surface warships, not to mention that they are not comparable to the United States, even if they are compared with Japan, or even compared with Taihu, they cannot be regarded as strong. ”

"In the future, we will definitely have a powerful naval fleet, not to mention other things, we will have more than 50 million tons of main destroyers, 100,000 tons of aircraft carriers, we must also have, and we must have the ability to build our own, so this requires our shipbuilding industry to become world-class."

Bao Feiyang said: "So just like what Mr. Chen just said, we should be bold when we are making plans." With such a large land area and such a large population, we must surpass South Korea by a lot in terms of economic aggregate. If we talk about comparative advantages, the shipbuilding industry as a capital-intensive, manpower-intensive, technology-intensive enterprise, we do not have to be poor Koreans, and we still have a strong domestic demand market, with strong state support, in terms of talent, technology, capital, even if there are some difficulties now, the future will inevitably catch up with South Korea, then what reason do we have not to believe that our shipbuilding industry will surpass South Korea? And it seems to me that this process will not take long, and in a few years we will be able to build our own large-tonnage warships, we will be able to build the most advanced container ships, and we will be able to build our own aircraft carriers"

Bao Feiyang said: "Therefore, on the issue of the relocation of Jiangnan shipbuilding, I think our steps should be bigger, which will be a new starting point for the century-old Jiangchuan, and in the next hundred years, Jiangnan shipbuilding will inevitably become a world-class shipbuilding enterprise." ”

Zhang Baoshan and Qian Zaixiang couldn't help but raise their eyebrows, and Bao Feiyang's tone was even higher than Chen Qilin's. Theoretically speaking, there is no problem with what Bao Feiyang said, but there are some problems that even high-ranking cadres like Zhang Baoshan and Qian Zaixiang dare not pack their bills, and who dares to say that China's economy will certainly be able to maintain high-speed growth? In the throes of state-owned enterprise reform in the past few years, the economy has been sluggish, and the national economy and people's livelihood have been very difficult.

The population of 1.3 billion is a huge resource, but at the same time, it is also a huge burden, such as the employment of laid-off workers, which is a headache for everyone.

In addition, the international environment is complicated, and the Southeast Asian countries that made great progress in the past few years have been ruined in their achievements in several decades of development because of a financial crisis, and even Japan, the second largest economic country, has suddenly fallen into stagnation because of a square agreement, and there was a great momentum to buy the United States and catch up with and surpass the United States, but now the gap between them and the United States is getting wider and wider.

Imperialism will not die, and the disintegration of the Soviet Union is a lesson from the past, and it is the only superpower that can compete with the United States.

Although the development of Huaguo in recent years is not bad, problems are also emerging, and the most powerful magic not long ago has caused an extremely bad impact. Although Xingang has already returned to Xingang and Xinao is about to return, the reunification of Taihu still has a long way to go, and the territorial disputes with neighboring Japan and some Southeast Asian countries, especially South India, have made China have to work very hard to maintain an environment for peaceful development.

As high-ranking officials, Zhang Baoshan, Qian Zaixiang, and others are still confident that under the leadership of the party, they will unite as one, overcome the current difficulties, and realize the four modernizations. But even they are not very clear about how far China will be able to develop in 10 or 20 years. After all, there are too many problems for the development of a country. Moreover, as China is developing, others will not stand still, and others will also move forward.

Developing countries have the advantage of being a latecomer, and after China's reform and opening up, the speed of development in the past 20 years has been very fast, but this is also because the original foundation is too weak, so it is easy to start and grow quickly, but when the economy develops, it will also encounter new problems, and it is impossible to maintain a growth rate of more than 10 percent all the time, and the three-step plan put forward by the great leader will be relatively conservative as long as the annual economic growth rate reaches a few or a few percent and is less than 8 percent according to the calculation of doubling the gross national product in 10 years。..

The first two steps of the three-step process have basically been achieved by this year, and the goal of these two steps is also relatively specific, that is, doubling the gross national product, and then solving the problem of food and clothing and achieving a moderately prosperous living standard. Although it cannot be said that the problem of food and clothing has been completely solved nationwide because of regional differences and different levels of economic development, on the whole, food and clothing can no longer be regarded as a major problem. As for the well-off living standards, the current general view is that a universal well-off has not yet been achieved, and in fact, while economic development is taking place, the people's living standards are indeed improving, but the pressure on life is also very great.

As for the third step of the three-step goal, it is to achieve a relatively prosperous life for the people by the middle of the 21 st century, basically realize modernization, and reach the level of a medium-sized country in terms of per capita gross national product. The middle of the 21st century is around 2050, which is still a long time, after all, it will only be 50 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 99, which means that when the founding of the People's Republic of China is 100 years old, the per capita GDP will reach the level of a moderately developed country.

This goal is not easy to achieve, after all, with China's population base, even if the per capita GDP reaches the level of a moderately developed country, the economic aggregate will be a very staggering figure.

The so-called moderately developed countries refer to some economically developed countries in between, such as South Korea, in addition to the 24 developed countries such as the United States, Japan, Britain, France, and Germany, as well as developing countries such as China.

Affected by the financial crisis, South Korea's per capita GDP ranked 42nd in the world in '98, at $8,000, lower than Argentina's $000 and Saudi Arabia's $500, while China's per capita GDP was only $2, a difference of about 10 times.

In '98, China's GDP was $1 trillion, and if its per capita GDP could be raised to South Korea's $8,000 level, its GDP would reach $10 trillion, while in '98 the United States' GDP was only $9 trillion, Japan's GDP was $4 trillion, and Germany's GDP was $2.2 trillion

It can be seen that if China achieves the three-step strategic goal and its per capita GDP reaches the level of a moderately developed country, its economic aggregate will be able to challenge the United States and have a chance to become the world's largest economy.

Perhaps the great man did have such an ambition in his heart, after all, China was once the world's first power in history. But in this era, it is not easy for Huaguo to come to this point. It is not easy for China to maintain a high-speed economic growth rate, which has only been 6 or 7 percent in the past two years, and with the slowdown in economic growth and the pains of reform, a large number of social and economic problems have emerged. Although everyone believes that after the adjustment, economic growth will return to more than 10 percent, and some of the current problems can be solved, it is uncertain whether the economy will be able to maintain such growth in 10 or 20 years. If our economic growth slows, even if it is still faster than that of the United States, the gap in absolute numbers will likely widen, because the United States has a much larger base than we do.

Therefore, at this time, even if we have confidence in China's economy, we cannot conclude that China's future economy will be able to reach the level of the United States, and even if it reaches the level of the United States, there is no guarantee that it will be able to reach the world's leading position in any industry