"Aunt Xue, let's review, a few days ago, you calculated the technical value algorithm of via-tele like this, right?

Intel Corporation, currently worth $123 billion. The pen "Fun" Pavilion www.biquge.infoamd company has a current market capitalization of $24 billion.

Considering that Intel is only engaged in the CPU industry chain as its main business, and AMD spent $5.6 billion from 06 to acquire the graphics card division of ATI, so for the sake of a fair comparison, we should strip AMD's graphics card industry and compare the CPU industry with Intel alone.

Let's assume that in the past two years or so, ATI has not added much value to its graphics department. So, AMD's CPU business unit should be worth $18 billion -- that's what you did the math that day, right? ”

Gu Mojie followed the temptation step by step, and first affirmed the arguments that Wang Xuehong put on the negotiating table at the beginning.

Wang Xuehong couldn't hear any conspiracy, and nodded lightly: "That's right, you just repeated my point of view." ”

"Okay, let's move on." Gu Mojie took a sip of tea and continued,

"Then, Intel's revenue last year was $35 billion, which is 3.5 times the market ratio, while AMD's CPU business unit was $4.8 billion, which is about 3.5 times.

Qualcomm's current market capitalization is $70.5 billion, and last year's sales revenue from 3G chips and licensing business was $10.4 billion, with a market turnover rate of 7 times, and your Via-Tele's sales revenue was $1.2 billion -- so you insist that the Via-Tele division, with a stock price of about $8 billion, is absolutely waterless, right? ”

(Note: This refers to the concept of "price-to-earnings ratio" and not "price-to-earnings ratio.") The former is the ratio of a company's market capitalization to its annual turnover, and the latter is the ratio of its market capitalization to its annual profit. In general, it is easier to see whether a company is inflated than the relationship between market capitalization and profit margin. However, if it is a similar industry and the profit margin of the product is about the same, it can also be compared with another one, which is more convenient in the negotiation. ）

"Of course, I've always insisted that the value of our equity is reasonable." Wang Xuehong gradually became a little impatient, and she didn't know why Gu Mojie kept repeating what she had said a few days ago, which made her tone gradually become proud.

No matter how much nonsense you talk about, can you make a bargain?

"Well, if you stick to this side-by-side comparison, I'm okay with that. Our company has absorbed two new subsidiaries and recruited a new CEO, you may not be familiar with it, it is the original CEO of Kingsoft, named Lei Jun.

Yesterday, I talked to an insider about your company's offer, and he felt that it was very reasonable, and then persuaded me to use a new model to give full play to the residual heat of your company's technology. ”

"Oh? Is it just 'residual heat'? That's a matter of respect. ”

Gu Mojie shrugged: "He said that he plans to start an internal business next year, and on the basis of independence from Hatsune Intelligence, he will make a new mobile phone brand, called Xiaomi mobile phone." He was going to make a personal computer with Dell, to make a mobile phone. Let the Android smart phone industry also change from an industry where the price of the whole machine is equal to three times the price of all parts to an industry where the price of the whole machine is only equal to 1.2 times the sum of all parts.

At that time, if the world's 3G mobile phone manufacturers are overwhelmed by Xiaomi's model, your Via-Tele will definitely be able to continue to maintain its current market share relative to Qualcomm, and when the time comes, I will definitely follow your algorithm and purchase all the CPU technology of Via-Tele according to the current price. ”

Wang Xuehong slapped the table directly: "Are you kidding me?" ”

Gu Mojie put on a very sincere attitude: "I didn't fool you, I'm just telling you - in the current environment, how inappropriate it is for you to apply the CPU market share and market value and technical value algorithm in the PC field to the mobile phone field." That's all. ”

Wang Xuehong was speechless for a while, and was refuted by Gu Mojie in a series of words.

……

The negotiation assumptions on the part of VIA Electronics had a fatal wound from the start.

That is, the comparison between the world leader and the second leader in the computer CPU field has been moved horizontally to the comparison between the world leader and the second leader in the mobile phone CPU field.

Although, because these two fields are CPUs, they are both high-precision electronic chip categories, it is easy for people to think of analogies.

However, there is a fatal difference between mobile phones and computers in the spare parts market.

The most fatal point is that computers have long entered the era of assembly machines.

Perhaps only a small percentage of people around the world who buy personal computers buy brand machines. Most people choose their own CPU, choose their own graphics card, motherboard, and assemble it in Digital City or Taobao store.

And mobile phones are obviously still in the era of brand machines. Especially after entering 3G, a large number of copycat machine factories have been reshuffled and lost, and the "assembly" attribute of the industry is rapidly ebbing.

Maybe five or six years later, the Internet tycoons who lack hardware foundation led by Google will throw out the concept of "modular assembled mobile phones" in the spirit of "smashing all the old world", so that mobile phones can also become custom assembly, but that is too far away after all.

It is so far away that Gu Mojie and Wang Xuehong can't predict it for the time being.

What's more, even if that thing appears, it's not a matter of the 3G era.

Assembly machines are an area of "moderate vertical competition" of spare parts.

The brand machine is a field of "heavy vertical competition" in spare parts.

People who install their own computers, if they like the CPU of home A, they can use home A, and if they like the graphics card of a card, they can use a card. Even if the brand is selling Intel's CPU and N card, it will not hinder the assembly machine enthusiasts, and there is no brand coercion.

In the field of brand machines, the brand owners themselves will be tied to filtering, and it is easier to appear the phenomenon of winner-take-all.

Just like in Texas, 30 percent of American voters would probably vote for the Democratic Party. But in every general election, because this group of people is always in the minority, the votes are meaningless.

According to the winner-take-all rule, for 100 years, every election in Texas has been voted for the Republican Party.

Those who "voted for the People's Note Party in Texas" are like "A enthusiasts who bought a motherboard suitable for N cards but wanted to insert A cards". If the environment is an assembly machine, they can get their way; If the environment is a brand machine, they will be coerced.

In the field of moderate vertical competition, such as search, in 2010, Du Niangjia could have a market share of 62% of the country; The 361 search, which ranked second in history, can also divide the leftovers of about 20% of the scale of the mother's family;

In the field of heavy vertical competition, such as social networking, in 2010, where to find an application that can share the profit of QQ in the market? Not at all.

The more severe the vertical, the easier it is to coerce, the more serious the winner's kill, and the less valuable the second child in the world is.

2008 can be regarded as the "first year of 3G" in most markets around the world - even the iPhone-3G in the United States was launched in this year.

And now it's just over the halfway point of 2009.

Therefore, the ratio of VIA to Qualcomm today is close to the ratio of AMD and Intel, not because VIA is really worth so much money.

It's because the world hasn't been in the 3G era long enough, and the winner-take-all side has not had time to give full play, and the stage of reshuffling has not ended.

After another two years, VIA immediately withered.

This was VIA's last moment of value – otherwise, VIA-TELE wouldn't have been worth $300 million six years from now.

In this area of the world, only one world is needed.

Second place is equal to death!

This is the core value and essence of the Internet world!

The essence of the Internet is that when an industry is closer to the "classic and pure Internet model", its marginal cost will be infinitely close to zero.

The more the marginal cost is infinitely close to zero, the harder it is for the second in the world to survive.

When this model reaches the limit of the theoretical classic, that is, the marginal cost is completely equal to zero, the second in the world can wipe his neck and commit suicide, and then reincarnate and choose another industry to enter.

Gu Mojie wants to use this iron law to teach the giants of the hardware industry to behave.

Do you still think that this world is the kind of "warm vein" in the hardware era?

The eldest eats meat, the second eats soup, and the third eats bones?

The boss will eat all the meat, soup and bones, and then reward the second and third children with a peanut.

The only way to survive is to infinitely segment the demand and market segments, and provide something that is differentiated from the big guys, rather than following behind the big guys.

(Sometimes I really want to be right. The street fighters advised: If you write a book, no matter from that point of view, it is completely inferior to sugar plus three less, you should either calm down and think about where your differentiating advantages are. Which point, at least your unique advantage, must be unique enough.

It's not terrible to hit the street, but what is terrible is that after hitting the street, it is 100% pure routine. If you really can't think of it, if you really become the kind of person who writes routines and writes to any subdivision node that is not as good as a certain god, and is too lazy to change, it is better to drink pesticides and commit suicide as soon as possible. This kind of retarded mind lives in the world, and it has not contributed to mankind at all. ）

……

Gu Mojie poured out the above truths, and Wang Xuehong poured them out.

If the hypothetical "millet world" can be realized, Wang Xuehong's theory is reasonable. Historically, via-tele has survived for an extra two years, but in fact, most of it is due to the spoiler of Xiaomi. Without Xiaomi, the via-tele mode dies faster.

It's a pity that the era of millet cannot come.

Even, Xiaomi itself cannot exist anymore.

Who made Lei Jun a worker under Gu Mojie.

Not only is Xiaomi not there, Lei Jun will also become the most vicious bargaining killer under Gu Mojie.

Wang Xuehong has really poured blood mold for eight lifetimes.

She felt a burst of anger, and the dopamine secretion in her body became more vigorous, causing her nerves to enter a state of hyperactive resistance, and it was difficult for someone to change her opinion.

Anger is really not an emotion that should be generated by the enemy during a debate, and it does not help to persuade at all.

When trying to persuade, what is needed is to make your enemies fearful.

Gu Mojie decided to stop just right.

He was responsible for opening the map cannon first, and waiting for Wang Xuehong's anger to gradually turn into fear was a good opportunity to harvest.

He called General Gu Yong and asked him to complete the acquisition of Lei Jun as soon as possible, and then sent the "cost killer" Lei Jun to help negotiate.

He doesn't have to take care of the rest personally. (To be continued.) )