Weekly stock review 15.6.14
In the past week, the broader market has hit new highs amid hesitation.
China's god car faded off the mysterious halo and fell all the way, and many tragic shareholders bought the limit and ended up with a loss of more than 20% in one day.
If you want me to say that this kind of person can only be described in two words: he deserves it.
At this time, the stock market has reached the stage of foolishness, but at this time, you are a real fool if you treat everyone else as a fool.
There is an empirical saying in the stock market that the good is all the bad. The stock market has risen sharply because it is expected to be hype, but when the hype has been exposed in broad daylight, there is no room for reverie, and the stock price will naturally return to rationality.
Here I think of an example that is not very appropriate: when you are in love, the woman is the most valuable when she has not yet agreed to the man.
At this stage of pursuit, the man often sees the woman as a goddess, and any reasonable or unreasonable request for her is a holy decree.
How similar this stage is to the hype we have in the stock market right now.
Then, when the woman finally agreed to the man, when the relationship was long, at this time we suddenly found that the goddess we imagined before was just an ordinary person and had many shortcomings.
Then the status of the woman soon changed from a goddess to a female man, a female foodie, and a female nerve.
This is called the exhaustion of the good and the bursting of the bubble.
Then, when the two parties finally got married and had children, the man's status completely changed from a slave to a general, and the woman slowly changed from a goddess to a yellow-faced woman and an old mother.
So you want to ask me what will happen to CRRC in the future? All I can say is: hehe.
Here I also want to give an example, some time ago the news reported that the price restrictions on drugs were relaxed, and I judged that drug prices would rise, which would drive the profit growth of the pharmaceutical sector.
Then I bought some Huahai Pharmaceutical - not because I judged how good the stock was, but because it was the first stock I had ever bought when I officially started trading.
Warren Buffett once said that buying stocks is like falling in love. So I've always been nostalgic for the stocks I once bought.
Unexpectedly, a few days after I bought it, Huahai Pharmaceutical was suspended, and then an announcement was made, private placement + equity incentive.
There is nothing to say about the private placement in this announcement, the key is equity incentives.
To put it simply, Huahai Pharmaceutical Company announced that in the next one to three years, if the company's performance growth reaches a certain range, it can give employees shares in the form of half selling and half giving away.
In fact, this news is essentially nothing, equity incentives or something, and it sounds like all bosses will say to employees: do a good job, do a good job and give you a raise.
I've heard this kind of thing too many times, so people who mix a lot in the workplace won't really take it seriously.
However, the shareholders in the stock market do not understand it this way, in their opinion, as soon as the equity incentive announcement of Huahai Pharmaceutical comes out, it seems that the company's future profit growth is a certainty......
After the resumption of trading, Huahai Pharmaceutical's stock price rose by more than 20% in just one week.
This is blind expectation.
Of course, I made money because of this anyway, and I couldn't be happier that someone made a fool of carrying a sedan chair for me. However, only God knows how this stock will end up in the end, and whether these high-chasing shareholders will finally have a chance to come out......
Next, let's talk about new shares, just issued a giant China Nuclear last week, and next week there is a giant Guotai Junan. What impact the issuance of new shares will have on the market in the short term, it is not easy to say at present, there are many short-term masters in the stock market, so I will not be ugly.
Today I want to talk about the long-term macro impact of IPO on the stock market.
Whether it's 2000, 2007 or now, in the middle and early stages of almost every bull market, new and sub-new stocks will perform very well.
From the perspective of conspiracy theories, there is a strong conspiracy flavor in this.
It's a bit like gambling, where you start out small, even make you a little money, and then the more you play, the more you get into it, and you get into it before you know it.
In the current Chinese stock market, although the bull market stocks are rising very hot, many rigorous and rational people still choose to work in a down-to-earth manner and do not want to participate in this troubled water.
Then some xx (in order to prevent checking the water meter, here everyone makes up their own brains) in order to hook these people who do not speculate in stocks into the stock market, the first step is to hook them into the risk-free primary market.
You see, the yield of new stocks is so high, compared to depositing in the bank, buying treasury bonds and putting Yu Bao is really weak.
Driven by this risk-free high return, those who were originally very vigilant and did not speculate in stocks began to be tempted, so they opened a stock account, deposited funds, and began to make new investments risk-free.
Next, as long as these people's funds go into the stock account, it will naturally go and there will be no return.
Soon these people will find that the yield of a dozen or twenty points on a new stock subscription is really nothing compared to the crazy stock market.
Anyway, there is nothing to do when the funds are idle during the intermittent period of playing new, and many friends around me have made a lot of money from the stock market. It's better to buy some stocks yourself.
Then, in the bull market, as long as the luck is not too bad, most of these newcomers can make a small amount of money from the stock market.
At this time, most people have completely lost their original intention of entering the market - to earn higher risk-free returns by playing new stocks.
Do you need me to say anything further?
In fact, I started from 3 and 4000 points, and all the way to 5000 points, I have been emphasizing one thing: do not increase your position.
It doesn't matter how much you want to toss the money you used to speculate in stocks in the current bull market, but if you increase your investment, you are actually the same person I just mentioned in the story.
Bull market stock trading is the same as gambling money in a casino, most of them are small games at the beginning, and most of them still make some money.
If you can control yourself and always play small and don't increase your stacks, then there will be no consequences. It's a pity that human nature is greedy, and if you make a little money, you will want to make more money, and if you lose, you will want to increase your investment to turn over the capital.
Before you know it, you're in a huge trap.
Of course, although I have said this risk warning 100 times, it is still useless.
The human mind is the most stubborn.
In 2013, I did ideological work for a friend, told him that the best investment opportunity in the stock market was coming, and persuaded him to fill his position.
I almost finished my saliva and persuaded him for two whole years before he trembled and re-positioned.
Now that the interests come first, the shareholders are already dizzy, so let them not increase their positions at this time? You might as well persuade our neighbors to the east to apologize to us.
Next, let's talk about the future market. Now that the market is in the second half of the bull market, everyone will obviously find that it is much more difficult to make money than before, and the hot spots are changing rapidly.
In the past, it was a hot spot for a week, but now it is a hot spot for two days, and even the existing sectors are on the list of gainers in the morning and the list of decliners in the afternoon.
In fact, the difficulty of the current stock market is already very easy to operate compared to the upcoming bull tail and the future bear market in the future. But if your current investment performance is mediocre, then I suggest you leave the market early.
As the saying goes, you're too weak, go back and re-study for a few years.
There is not much time left in the future bull market, and the next market can only be calculated in weeks.
Therefore, the operation strategy of the future stock market, hot spots, plates, news, and themes are not the focus, but the focus is short.
All value-based, investment-based medium- to long-term operational plans must be resolutely rejected.
In particular, many investors who have learned a little bit of value investing knowledge, long-term value investment is said in the bear market, and long-term value investment is said at the end of the bull market, which is called death.
What we need to do now is to be careful with 12 points while making money, and be ready to retreat at any time. Of course, this retreat refers to an eternal retreat, and at least we must be mentally prepared not to touch the stock again for three or five years.
There is a saying that old shareholders are all copying the bottom and copying death. In 08, how many shareholders bought the bottom when the market fell from 6000 points to 3000 points, and the market fell to 1600, all of which suffered huge losses.
Therefore, the operation strategy of the stock market in the future is mainly in the short and medium term, and it is strictly forbidden to increase positions, carefully select stocks, and reduce positions cautiously.
Finally, let's talk about the current situation of shareholders.
The bull market has risen to the present, many people have made a fortune, and a large number of "stock gods" have emerged. In Xia Bucai, he was also named the "god of stocks" by some fans.
Of course, I am very happy to be canonized as a god, and anyone who is recognized and worshipped will be happy.
But it's one thing to be canonized by someone else, it's another thing to see yourself as you see yourself.
No matter how others praise you, you yourself must stay calm, if you are praised by others, you should really be a god, then the day of falling off the altar is not far away.
Okay, that's all for today, Jing Ke assassinated King Qin......
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