The stock market has been a nightmare in the past two weeks, with the market plummeting from 5,176 points to 4,139 points in just nine trading days, and 1,037 points in two weeks, a drop of more than 20%!

On Friday, the market broke a number of historical plunge records of A-shares with a large black candle of more than 300 points.

In fact, for this round of 1,000-point plunge, I have been reminded as early as the previous issues of the weekly stock review. So although the market fell very scariously, it was not surprising.

In fact, it is not difficult to predict this plunge, as long as you turn your attention back to 2007, after the 530 incident in 2007, the market plummeted from 4335 points to 3404 points in just one week, with a maximum decline of more than 22%.

I am not a time-traveler, I don't have the ability to predict the future, and the only way to predict is to judge based on historical trends.

So from this point of view, the stock market crash in the past two weeks is not a bad thing, which at least shows that the stock market is still mimicking the trend of the last bull market, although some details are not the same, but the overall pattern is the same.

For predicting the stock market, the most feared sentence is that this time is different. If that's the case, then I'll have to be blind. But at least from the current point of view, the market trend is no different from 07, in that case, it is the best.

Today, everyone is most concerned about the double reduction policy issued by the central bank, and the interest rate reserves are reduced together.

In addition, this good news is introduced at this critical point, and the result is actually needless to say.

It is a high probability event that the market will rebound or even reverse to a new high in the future, but let's not consider how it should be operated in the future, let's first think about the government's attitude.

First, this bull market is one dominated by government money, not one dominated by economic performance. Therefore, everything in this bull market must be based on the attitude of the government and the degree of easing of market funds.

Once the market capital or the government's attitude changes, it is necessary to adjust the investment strategy as soon as possible.

From a capital perspective, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate fell to 1% from 4% in 2014, and then the stock market came out of a wave of 3,000 points.

Recently, by the issuance of two super large-cap stocks of China Nuclear Power and Guotai Junan, the market funds were once very tight, and at the end of June, the bank funds were liquidated, and when the money was tight, the interbank lending rate rose from 1% to 1.3%, and it was reasonable for the market to plummet by 1,000 points.

Looking at the attitude of the government, the country's expectations for this bull market are very high. Because with the fall in housing prices and the economic downturn, the government urgently needs a market to boost the economy, and the stock market is the best way to do it.

For the government, what they want most is to see China's stock market emerge from the 10-year slow bull market that the US stock market has seen.

It is a pity that China's stock market has various institutional and non-institutional defects, and it is destined to fail to get out of the slow bull market, and can only rise and fall.

From the government's previous statements, we can clearly see that what the government wants to see most is that the stock market will spend 10 years to get out of a wave of slow bull market from 2,000 to 10,000 points, and then use the bullish stock market to drive the economy out of the trough.

But unfortunately, it only took half a year for crazy Chinese investors to pull the market from 2,000 to 5,000 points.

Judging from the current trend, the market replicates the 07 market, and the sharp rise and fall is almost a foregone conclusion, and I am afraid that the most likely trend in the future is that the market will rise to 7, 8000 points and eventually fall back to 3, 4000 points.

There is not much difference between this bull market and the 07 bull market so far, but there is only one key difference, and that is leverage.

In the bull market in 2007, everyone used their own funds to speculate in stocks, so even if the market fell from more than 6,000 points to more than 1,600 points in just one year, although the shareholders lost miserably, the impact on the society was still very small. (Of course, those who borrowed money to speculate in stocks are not counted)

However, this round of bull market is different, and in today's stock market, there are not only leveraged tools such as stock index futures, but also margin trading and graded leveraged funds.

In the bear market of 08, even if the stock market fell hard, the shareholders would lie down and pretend to be dead at most, anyway, no matter how it fell, the shareholders would always have some principal left.

At that time, as long as the shareholders insisted on covering the stocks, we will look at it today, and they will basically be unbundled, and there will even be a lot of profits.

Don't think this is telling a story, I have seen a lot as an old shareholder, and there are many shareholders around me who have been covered by 6000 points in 2007 for 8 years, and there is even one who has been covered since 2000.

The delisting system of China's stock market is not perfect, so even if you encounter a bull market, as long as you can hold on, there is always a chance to get out of the way.

But this refers to the previous Chinese stock market, when you add leverage when you speculate on stocks, the situation is completely different.

Leverage will be liquidated!

If Chinese investors hold so many financing orders and graded B funds, then if the stock market comes to 6,000 to 1,600 points again in the future, there will really be a queue on the rooftop, which will definitely cause serious social unrest.

The government just wants to make some money from the stock market, and if it causes social unrest, it will be more than worth the loss.

Therefore, we can understand that the recent stock market crash is the government's knocking on the mountain and reminding investors of the risk of leverage.

At present, the leverage ratio of leveraged B and financing is about doubled, and the stock market has fallen by 20% in the last half month, which means that the shareholders who are fully leveraged have lost 40%, considering that the decline of heavyweight stocks is relatively small, the losses of those who buy small and medium-sized boards, sub-new stocks and gems may be as high as 60% or more.

With such a huge plunge, basically the financing disks have been liquidated, and if there is no liquidation, I am afraid that I will have palpitations in the future and dare not play again.

What's more, the central bank announced a double drop policy at this juncture, it is conceivable that the stock market will inevitably open sharply higher on Monday, and the retaliatory rebound of the market in the next few days is a high probability event, so the funds that shorted the market in the previous days may lose a lot even if they do not blow up.

After this rehearsal, even if there is a bear market like '08 in China's stock market in the future, the impact on society should be minimized.

After talking about the government's attitude, let's talk about the future trend of the stock market.

As I said before, the bull market in China's stock market is divided into five stages: starting, washing, main rising wave, shaking position, and exhausting wave.

The current stock market has gone through the first four phases, and if there are no surprises, the last wave of the bulltail market will begin next Monday.

Let's take a look back at two bull markets in China's history

In September 2000, the Shanghai Composite Index announced the end of the main bull market with a 12% decline, and then the Chinese stock market hit two new highs in January 2001 and June 2001, ending the bull market with a triple top.

After the 530 incident in 2007, the market announced the end of the bull market with a 22% plunge, but at this time, the Chinese stock market, due to the existence of heavy stocks such as banks and petrochemicals, led to the distortion of the market index, so we switched to the CSI 500 index, which is more representative of the trend of most stocks.

We can see that the CSI 500 index hit two new highs in October 2007 and January 2008 after the collapse of 530, and the result also ended this bull market with a triple top pattern.

One triple top can be said to be a coincidence, but both bull markets ended in the form of triple tops, which is very helpful for us to judge the trend of the future exhaustion waves.

We now assume that the exhaustion of this wave of bull market in the future will also come out of the triple top, so now the first top has been completed, and then there is a high probability that the market will bottom out and rebound out of the second top, and the leading sector of this wave of trend is very likely to be weighted blue chips.

Of course, whether this wave of rise is led by the first-line blue-chip led by Jin Sanpang or by the second-line blue-chip led by the previous stagflation, this is still uncertain, and you can judge for yourself according to your own experience.

When this wave of market led by heavyweight stocks ends, the market will come out of the third top. Because if the heavyweight stocks lead the rise, the large-cap index will definitely hit a new high, and the retail investors who were frightened by the recent thousand-point plunge will find that the market is just a fake fall, and they will rush into it without fear of death.

Therefore, the final third top of the broader market is still led by small-cap stocks. Of course, this wave of rise is the real man-eating tiger, if you are greedy for this last bite, then you will inevitably die in the end and have no place to bury.

Therefore, remember, if the future is really as I expect the market to come out of the 28 market and create the second top, then everyone must decisively clear the position and close the account, and never touch the stock again in the next five years, remember! Remember!!

That's all for today's analysis of stocks, and then there's next week's preview: Graded Class A funds for low-risk investments.

So, Jing Ke assassinated the king of Qin......

p.s.

At present, our readership 415014913 is about to fill up, and we do not plan to expand it for the time being. Nowadays, the group chat of more than 400 people has been like swiping the screen, and the latest statistics show that the number of daily chats in this group is as high as more than 4,000...... If you add more people, you probably won't be able to watch it.

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