Chapter 575 Energy Meeting!

According to the per capita GDP, social wealth accumulation level and per capita mineral resource consumption level of developed countries, combined with the national economic structure and other relevant factors, countries at different stages of development can be roughly classified into several types.

This division includes: pre-industrialized countries, industrialized countries and post-industrial countries. Among the industrialized countries, according to the characteristics of their industrialization process and the growth of mineral resource consumption, they are divided into: pre-industrialized countries (such as the United Kingdom, the United States, etc.) and newly rapid industrialized countries (such as Japan and South Korea).

The baton of industrialization is now being passed into the hands of developing countries, including countries. Therefore, in the beautiful blueprint for the future development of the country, it is particularly important to summarize the basic laws of developed countries and understand the country's past mineral resources and energy consumption. Through the analysis and study of the basic characteristics of mineral resource consumption in countries with different levels of economic development, we can reveal the basic law of the relationship between economic development and mineral resource consumption.

In fact, in the process of economic development, the growth of per capita energy and mineral resources consumption follows the "shape evolution law, that is, with the growth of the economy, the per capita energy and important mineral resources consumption will not grow indefinitely, when the economy develops to a higher level, the per capita energy and important mineral resources consumption reaches its peak, and then no longer grows or declines slowly.

With the rapid growth of per capita GDP, the accumulation of social wealth, infrastructure construction and urbanization have increased rapidly, and the per capita consumption of energy and mineral resources has shown a rapid growth trend.

When the per capita GDP and social wealth accumulation, infrastructure construction and urbanization rate reach a certain level, the development of industrialized economy enters a mature period, the industrial structure changes, the proportion of industrial added value begins to decline, and the per capita consumption of bulk mineral resources such as steel, cement, copper and aluminum begins to enter a period of zero or negative growth, while the growth rate of per capita energy consumption slows down.

With the huge accumulation of social wealth and people's living standards reaching a high level, the low-energy tertiary industry featuring high and new technology has replaced the high-energy consumption industry to become the main contributor to GDP, and the economic development has entered the post-industrialization stage, and energy consumption will remain at a relatively stable level, and then show a slow downward trend.

With the development of the economy, the consumption of different types of mineral resources presents a "trajectory change due to different countries and regions, different departments of economic development level and economic development stage of its energy and important mineral resources consumption growth, growth rate and peak arrival time are different, thus constituting the wave and progressive characteristics of resource consumption growth.

Studies show that when the accumulation of social wealth reaches a certain level, industrialization will enter a mature period, the economic structure will undergo major changes, the consumption of important mineral resources will begin to decline, and the energy consumption rate will begin to slow down.

In fact, according to the growth of the country's total GDP, the consumption and demand for mineral resources in the next 20-30 years are roughly predicted. The study shows that the consumption of several bulk mineral resources in the country will reach an inflection point one after another.

Lin Yu thought for a while, and then said: "Dad, don't worry, I still have conditions, you can say it together when the time comes!" ”

"Okay, you say!" Liu Jinnan said.

"Me

"I want to work with the country in the military."

"Military cooperation? Xiaoyu: How do you cooperate militarily with the country? In what name? Liu Jinnan said in surprise.

"Of course, military cooperation in the name of Indonesia or other countries." Lin Yu said.

Liu Jinnan fell into deep thought when he heard this, and even the old man who had been listening opened his eyes and looked at Lin Yu without knowing what he was thinking.

"How do you want to work together?" The old man asked.

"The main thing is that we need to discuss the specifics of some anti-aircraft missiles and submarines. However, the most important thing for me is that the country needs to train a group of scientific and technological talents for me. Lin Yu said.

The old man immediately understood what Lin Yu meant, Lin Yu has technology, but no one can understand it, and he cooperates with the country in a different way, on the one hand, he wants to take care of the country, and on the other hand, he almost wants the country to cultivate talents for him.

"I need to think about it!" After thinking about it, Liu Jinnan still didn't dare to agree to Lin Yu, he had to calculate the pros and cons and make the judgment that was most beneficial to the Lin family.

"Okay, I believe that Dad, you will help me, if it weren't for Dad, you succeeded in taking the position, I wouldn't dare to bring this up!" Lin Yu smiled, he had this idea for a long time, but he never dared to say it.

In the afternoon, Liu Jinnan left in a hurry, and Zhongnanhai added another meeting of the Standing Committee.

"Ladies and gentlemen, Vice Premier Liu has already told you what you think?" In the conference room, the general secretary looked around and asked.

"Let me start with my opinion." Coughing, Vice Chairman Yang said: "Let's take a look at the situation of our country, our country is now facing several situations, first, the dual pressure of population growth and economic development, resulting in rapid growth in demand for mineral products, and the absolute value of growth is very large Second, as the current production pillar, a large number of old mines and old oil fields, most of which were built in the 50~60s, have entered the middle and late stages of mining. Mining difficulty increases, production costs rise, resources are increasingly depleted, its production capacity in the next 10 ~ 5 years will be mostly gone, if there is no new raw material base to take over, production will occur a huge landslide third, in recent years, due to the increase in geological prospecting difficulty, coupled with insufficient investment in geological exploration, geological prospecting work shrinks, so that the growth of important mineral reserves is slow, and even stagnation or decline, so that the future of the new mine reserve base is very tight.

For example, the consumption rate of minerals such as oil, iron-rich ore, manganese-rich ore, copper, chromium, and potash is much higher than the growth rate of reserves. The remaining recoverable reserves of oil and iron ore even showed negative growth. ”

"Based on the above reasons, the pillar minerals in the national economy, such as oil, iron-rich ore, copper, potash and other reserves are seriously insufficient, the increase in reserves and consumption has been beyond the means for many years, the increase in production is weak, and the trend of large-scale imports of foreign mineral products has been formed. Judging from the current reality and future needs, a considerable part of China's bulk mineral raw materials such as oil, iron-rich ore, copper, manganese, and potash, as well as strategic minerals such as chromium, cobalt, platinum, and nickel, which have a pillar position in economic development, need to rely on imports for a long time. This is a mineral resource that really affects the national security of our country. For example, China began to import iron ore in 1957, and in the 30 years to 1987, a total of 2.7 billion tons were imported, of which imports soared to 3.5 million tons in 1987. So far, the import volume has reached 11.77 million tons. At present, the degree of import dependence is expected to be 0.4 billion tons of iron-rich ore to be imported by 1990. This is a difficult problem for our country. ”

"Manganese ore, there have been some imports since 1984. At present, China's dependence on manganese ore imports is more than 20%, and by 1990 and 1990, it is expected that the import dependence will be 57% and 57% chromite, respectively, and it will be dependent on foreign countries from 1952. Currently, 40% of domestic demand is imported. By 1990 and the year, it is expected that the degree of import dependence will reach 56% and 71% of copper, respectively, and domestic copper mines will only be able to meet 29% of the total demand and the rest will be imported. By 1990 and the year, it is expected that the degree of import dependence will reach 36 respectively, and the degree of import dependence will be 40%~. Aluminum, imports account for 20‰ of the national demand. More than 90% of the potash fertilizer and domestic demand are imported. Oil, imported petroleum products in China in the 50s accounted for more than 60% of total consumption. ”

"After the discovery of Daqing Oilfield in the early 60s, it reached basic self-sufficiency in crude oil in 1963. In 1974~1990, China's crude oil was exported on a large scale, but the contradiction between domestic supply and demand became increasingly prominent. The annual trend of oil consumption increasing by millions of tons continues unabated. Since 1993, China's crude oil imports have been greater than exports, becoming a net importer of oil. In 1997, China's dependence on oil imports was 1. Import dependence is expected to increase to ~38% over the next 20 years."

"My opinion is that we can take into account Vice Premier Yoo's suggestion that Lin Yu, which will not only help us a lot in mitigating oil and mineral deposits, but also help us expand our influence in Africa and other countries."

After Vice Chairman Yang finished speaking, he smiled at Liu Jinnan, then picked up the cup and took a sip of water.

After Vice Chairman Yang finished speaking, everyone present thought about it, Vice Chairman Yang took out a cigarette and threw it to one by one and said with a smile: "Actually, this matter is not harmful to us, no matter what it is, it will help our diplomacy and politics, and in addition, Vice Premier Liu said that the matter of military cooperation, I think it is also helpful to us, I think if Lin Yu harms the interests of the country, the first person who will not let him go will be Lin Lao." ”

"That's true, what Vice Chairman Yang said just now, I have thought about it carefully, now our country has become the world's leading importer of mineral products, oil, iron, copper, aluminum, sulfur, potash and other minerals with high demand will expand from about 10,000 tons in 1980 to 198 tons of 10,000 tons. Therefore, the long-term shortage of these minerals is a foregone conclusion. For a long time to come, Japan's economic development will require the consumption of large quantities of mineral raw materials, and the import of many kinds of minerals that Japan needs will increase. In order to effectively do a good job in the dynamic balance between the demand and supply of mineral resources, ensure the realization of China's set goals in the future, and ensure China's economic and national defense security, it is necessary to have a mineral resources strategy suited to China's national conditions. And the method that Lin Yu said is exactly a choice for us. ”

"What is the National Mineral Resources Strategy? It is the basis for guiding the formulation of long-term planning and mineral resources policies for such mineral resources. Resource strategy is an important part of the national economic development strategy, is a major plan with the overall situation or determines the overall situation, and is the general policy of mineral resources supply guarantee required by the economic development strategy in a certain historical stage. According to China's situation, we should make full use of "two resources, two markets", which is still the mineral resources strategy that China should continue to adhere to. This strategy includes two complementary and interrelated aspects: domestic and global. ”

"Based on the domestic and going to the world, the main thing is to start from the actual situation in China, in accordance with the principle of comparative interests under the conditions of market economy, and realize the optimal allocation of mineral resources from a global scale. Under the premise of the most favorable prices, the supply of mineral raw materials can be solved both by the domestic market and by the international market. That is to say, China's urgently needed mineral resources should be used abroad, even if China's rich mineral resources can be imported. As long as the conditions are favorable, this practice can improve the national economic efficiency, play a role in reserving national resources, help better protect the environment, and be conducive to the sustainable development of mineral resources. For example, some experts' suggestion that China's coal "should gradually form a pattern of northward and southward expansion" is a reflection of this thinking. ”

"Considering the stable supply of strategic minerals from a global perspective has always been the focus of the formulation of economic development strategies and resource strategies by various industrial countries. We can illustrate this by the example of the US oil security strategy. The United States is not only a major oil resource and producer, but also a major oil consumer and importer. Oil imports account for more than 50 percent of its total consumption, and the issue of ensuring oil supply is related to the economic development and national security of the United States. The two oil crises in the 70s hit the U.S. economy hard, so the Nixon, Ford, and Carter administrations imposed price controls on oil, vigorously encouraged domestic oil development, implemented economy to reduce oil imports, and established strategic oil reserves.

In 1977, the U.S. Department of Energy was established to clear the way for the energy market, pay attention to international energy security and environmental issues, and support U.S. interests in the export of energy technology and services. And the law requires the Department of Energy to submit a national energy policy plan to Congress on a regular basis. Since the 80s, the focus of the U.S. energy strategy has been to emphasize the role of the market. Advocate efficiency and conservation, expand the use of natural gas, promote the development of renewable energy, reduce oil imports, and open up diversified sources of energy imports. I have heard that the Reagan administration and the Department of Energy are preparing to submit such a report on the National Integrated Energy Strategy to the United States Congress. Politburo Standing Committee, Chairman of the National People's Congress Chairman Han analyzed.

The National Integrated Energy Strategy, which was supposed to be submitted to Congress in 199, was now forced to come out in 1988.

The outstanding feature of the report is that the United States not only takes into account the balance of domestic oil supply in the United States to ensure energy security, but more importantly, it needs to consider the world's oil supply and demand from a global perspective and grasp the price and market dynamics. The policy objective is to diversify the supply of oil to the world market. When it comes to diversifying oil imports, the U.S. is primarily trying to reduce imports from insecure areas. Clear