Chapter 270: How to Analyze a Stock (4)
"Fatty, you're right, in the process of a sharp rise in stocks, the bottom chips will be transferred up many times, in this process of continuous transfer, which is the main force to really ship, is indeed the most critical point in studying the chip distribution column, and it is also the easiest place for retail investors to be confused. &{}. {23} {x}. {}”
Ding Xu nodded and said with a smile, "My research on the chip distribution bar is not too deep to solve this problem perfectly. At present, I am judging by two points, one is that if it is at the end of a bull market or bear market, when the market fluctuates sideways or continues to rise, then from the lowest point of individual stocks in the past one or two years, the dense chips within double the increase are transferred upward, and there is basically no need to worry about the main shipment, which is a calculation of space. Second, it is necessary to comprehensively judge the upside of the stock price in combination with the K-line moving average volume and other indicators, the size of the increase, the estimation of the main profit, the linkage of the plates, and the fundamentals of individual stocks, so as to determine whether the main force is shipped. ”
"What if it's in a bearish phase?" Eat fat asked curiously.
"In that case, individual stocks will generally fall with the broader market, and will continue to hit new lows, and the chip density bar will generally continue to move downward, so there is no such problem." Ding Xu replied.
"Makes sense." He nodded and replied, "It seems that no matter what the indicators are, if you want to use them well, you have to study them deeply, which is much better than using a lot of indicators and not trying to understand them." As the saying goes, one trick is fresh, and you can eat it all over the world. ”
After hearing the sentence that you can't get fat, the group members all pondered, and it took a long time for someone to ask a new question.
"Miracle, why do these bottom chips keep moving upwards?" The beautiful mood asks a question.
"That's a good question, it's a matter of the size of the main capital and the style of operation. There are the main forces. The funds are huge. At the bottom of the continuous sideways for several years. It was very patient to absorb the chips before starting to rise sharply. During the pull-up period, because the chips are basically concentrated in the hands of the main force, and the remaining funds of the main force are also more, the bottom chip-dense area basically remains unchanged, and only a part of the funds are used to pull up, and the bottom warehouse will not move at all until it starts to ship after pulling up several times. Only then will the bottom position be sold quickly, and the chip dense area at the bottom will soon disappear. ”
Ding Xu explained, "However, because the chip distribution index is widely known, this way of shipping is also easy to be identified by retail investors, and retail investors can easily sit in a sedan chair, so the risk of sitting in the main force is relatively large, so the main force usually adopts a more concealed and easier way to confuse retail investors, that is, the chips are constantly transferred upward, so that you can't figure out which is the main shipment." In addition, some of the main funds are not too large, and the time to absorb funds is relatively short. There are not many chips in the hand, and the control process is not deep. As a result, most of the chips are often used in the process of pulling, so the main force raises the cost of its own bottom position while pulling up. As a result, the bottom chips are constantly moving upwards. ”
Ding Xu's explanation is already very clear, but there are still people who can't understand it, and Sun Qingyu is one of them.
"I've just entered the market, and I'm a little confused, can you explain it with a metaphor or something like that?" Sun Qingyu asked very studiously.
"Let's put it this way. I've observed a lot of bull stocks, and the bottom chips will be transferred multiple times. For example, at the bottom, the chip dense area was at 2 yuan, and then it rose a wave, and the dense chip band of 2 yuan disappeared and moved to 4 yuan, and many retail investors who liked to look at the chip bar ran away. But soon after, the stock price rose to $6 again, the $4 chip area moved up to the $6 area again, and then the stock price rose to $8 again. This repeated movement is somewhat similar to the infantry phalanx constantly pushing forward, and the line is always in front.
Ding Xu scratched his head helplessly, pondered for a moment, and said, "This is similar to playing football, some coaches like the 442 formation, four defenders, four midfielders, and two forwards. This formation is good for counter-attacking, because there are four players in the back defending near the goal, which is good for the main team's bottom position, which has not moved. There are also four players in the midfield, who can attack and defend, leaving only 2 strikers to attack, opening up the territory, the purpose is to ensure that the base camp has enough troops not to be broken by the opponent, and strive not to concede goals. This is like the low bottom position of the main force, most of which are not moving, and the profits are accumulating higher and higher, until they reach the peak. ”
"It's easy to understand when you say that, I love football!" The bookwalker laughed, "You go on." ”
"And those who pay more attention to attack will put on a 433 formation, four defenders, three midfielders, three forwards, and focus more on attacking instead of defending. They may start with a defensive line in the second half, then move into midfield and finally into the first half, the pressure is moving forward and the defence is moving forward. This is like the bottom position of another main force, some of which will continue to move upward, and the other part will remain in the position until it reaches the peak. ”
Ding Xu continued, "And even more radical, there is also the 352 formation. Relying on three defenders with strong defensive ability to defend the back line, and controlling the overall situation with a strong midfield, this formation is often used when a strong team meets a weak team, and when the attack posture is chosen. This is like those who absolutely control the market but do not have much money left, in order to free up funds to pull up, they will continue to sell high and buy low in the process of pulling, so that most of the chips will continue to move up, and when they are near the top, they will be pulled out at the same time, so that they can finish the goods relatively easily. ”
The bookwalker said thoughtfully, "Well, that makes sense. Is there still an extremely radical main force? For example, I remember that in the sixties and seventies of the 19th century, there was a kind of origin formation in football games, which was 1+1+9 and 1+2+2+6 formations. Its basic tactical idea is to pursue the attack one-sidedly, swarming to kick and dribble the ball, and push towards the opponent's goal. Advance, similar to the meaning of all-attack and all-defense. ”
Ding Xu nodded and said, "That's right." In the stock market, there are also main forces that do not leave any bottom positions at all, and use the chips in their hands to continuously reverse and continue to rise rapidly, with a frighteningly high short-term increase and a rapid rise in holding costs. However, due to the fact that retail investors do not dare to chase and the participation of retail investors is not high, in the end, the main force often cannot ship goods at the top, so they have to forcibly suppress about 1o-2o%, or even 3o%, so that retail investors feel that there is a cheap price to pick up, and then find an opportunity to slowly ship sideways. This situation is generally similar to the short village of the death squad. Quickly pull up and open a position. Pull up. After that, it will be shipped quickly. ”
"The style of the main force has changed so much, it's really hard to grasp." The book walker sighed, "No wonder retail investors want to make some money, it's so difficult!" ”
"In fact, no matter how the main style changes, as long as we insist on only buying safe stocks, we can avoid most of the risks. Don't be tempted by the fact that a stock that has risen several times has fallen by 2o%, and you will think about buying the bottom. It's easy to copy halfway up a mountain or even on the top of a mountain. Those stocks at historical highs, even if the main force has not yet been fully shipped, but most of them are pulled out at the same time, and chasing higher is a greater risk. And in terms of yield, it is also far inferior to low-level safety stocks. ”
Ding Xu continued to share his experience, "For example, in the big bull market in 2oo7, many stocks rose tenfold. So, when a stock rises from $1 to $5, you chase it higher. Even if the main force can finally pull up to 1o blocks, your yield will only be doubled. And this is still based on the premise that you can accurately escape the top at the highest point of 1o yuan. In fact, the vast majority of retail investors can't do this, because the highest point is often just a moment, followed by a long yin. When the stock price falls to $9, you still fantasize that this is just a short-term adjustment, and you are ready to patiently cover it to $11 or even more. Then it fell to 8 yuan, 7 yuan, because the yield was less than doubled, you were unwilling to ship, and you wanted to wait, but it didn't take long to fall to 5 yuan, and you couldn't ship at this time? Come out, there is no profit, if you don't get out, the next thing is to trap you. ”
"That's right, that's it!" The bookwalker nodded with feeling.
Ding Xu continued: "And if you bought only about double the safety stock at that time, that is, a stock of 1 yuan, and you bought it when it rose to 2 yuan, then when it rose to 1o yuan, you would have 5 times the profit." Even if you fail to accurately escape the top at 1O yuan, but when it falls to 8 yuan, it will generally fall below the 2O daily moving average. Because at this point you have only lost double the profit, but you still have four times the profit, which is enough to make up your mind. Even if you are too hesitant at this time and dare not make up your mind, then when you fall below all the moving averages, it should be 5 yuan, at least you still have 15o% profit, and then it is still profitable to run. That's the benefit of low-level security stocks. ”
"But the safety of low-level stocks is safety, that is, it starts too slowly, and it may take a long time to wait. The cost of time is also a headache. The bookwalker said with some confusion.
"The safety of funds always comes first, it doesn't matter if you take a little time, as long as you can get the expected returns in the end, you will be successful overall. And we can choose those safe stocks that have signs of starting, such as those that continue to rise in volume and break through the long-term sideways box to participate, so that we can get gains quickly. ”
Ding Xu said, "According to my observation, in a bull market, in the early stage, we must chase those hot sectors that started in advance to maximize profits. Don't dare to chase because of one or two limits, which will miss out on profits, because they are the motivation to lead the market to a bull market, and they are often the leader of this bull market. In the later stage of the bull market, it is necessary to withdraw from the bull stocks that have risen too high in time and turn to those stagflation stocks and safety stocks that have not risen much in the previous wave and are still at a relatively low level, so as to maximize the benefits. ”
Many group friends listened to it with relish, but they were a little anxious if they didn't get fat: "Miracle, you are too good, you have been talking about the resumption of rights and the distribution of chips for almost an hour, and if you continue to talk about it, it is almost closed in the morning, when will you talk about it, can Jinshan open the position?" ”
"Okay, that's all for the chip distribution. All in all, my first trick in analyzing stocks is to call up all the historical trends since the stock was listed, use the post-compounding method to understand the historical increase of the stock price, whether it is currently high or low, and use the chip distribution column indicator to cooperate, so as to understand the approximate position of the main chips, whether it has collected chips at a low level and is ready to pull up, or has been sold at a high level and is smashing, etc. ”
Ding Xu concluded, "In this way, you can understand the general trend, and you can know whether the stock price is going uphill or downhill now, or whether it is going to go flat." Once we can see the trend of large, long-term chip changes, we can call up the recent trend and analyze the small, short-term chip changes, so that we have a greater certainty. Even if there is a mistake in judgment, it is a small mistake and there will be no major problems. This trick is my most commonly used trick, and it can be regarded as the thing at the bottom of the box. ”
"It's really practical, enlightening a lot, thank you for sharing." The book walker sighed and asked, "What about the second move?" ”
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(Heartfelt thanks to "pkaga5o", opit2oo2, Wu Zhongzihao, extreme yy26o325, Mao Zuchang, Flying Immortals outside the sky, stolen numbers can only be re-applied, "Xiao Wu Storm" and other 8 hardcore book friends generously rewarded as the leader of this book, welcome to the alliance leader group (miracle group) family exchange.)
Special thanks to the first hardcore alliance leader of this book, "Book Road Walker", for another million starting coins of the huge reward, gratitude beyond words, I wish you a happy and great profit......
With everyone's strong support, our book won the top of the best-selling list for the fifth time today, and Xiao Li Feidao regained the champion, thank you. But I looked at it in the morning, there are only 1,000 monthly passes, ranking low, yesterday the 19 alliance leaders had nearly 200 votes, and there were 300 100 monthly tickets for the 100 people who added books to the road, and 600 according to the double monthly pass. Is there a friend who forgot to vote, or is not a senior member, please check if there are any votes in the next monthly pass folder, 1-7 is double the monthly pass time, there is only the last day left, please hurry up and vote if you don't vote. The method is to click on the reward work on the page of the book, and click on the "I vote for a monthly pass" in the upper left corner after entering, and see if there is a monthly pass, thank you. In the past two days, individual stocks have risen and made a good start, which is a good time to make money, and I wish you all to continue to make big profits tomorrow. (To be continued......)
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