After listening to the question of the bookrunner, Ding Xu smiled and said: "The second trick of my analysis is to integrate some analysis methods of technical and fundamental schools, and try to analyze a stock in an all-round way. The fundamentals mainly include the main business, industry prospects, profitability in recent years, chip changes, shareholders and so on. The technical side is mainly analyzed from the moving average, K-line, trading volume and other aspects. ”

"We also pay attention to these, but the analysis is a little confusing, such as the financial statements and various announcements, which seem to be laborious. As for all kinds of technical indicators, they are like stars in the sky, and sometimes the technical indicators fight with each other, and I really can't complain. "Miracle, you might as well give an example." ”

"That's right, let's talk about my gold mountain." If you don't eat fat, you quickly seized the opportunity and interjected, "Today and tomorrow will be able to verify your judgment, whether it is right or wrong." ”

"Well, three feet of ice is not a day's cold. To learn to understand the fundamentals and technicals of a stock quickly, there is no other shortcut if you do more research and practice makes perfect. Okay, let's try to analyze Jinshan Kai. ”

Ding Xu said, "Let's take a look at the situation of the high and low positions first. When Jinshan Kai was listed in 1993, the market price was 6 yuan, and now 15 years later, its post-compounded stock price is only more than 14 yuan, which is only more than double the market price. Compared with the price increase in the past decade, this double increase is really pitiful. You know, more than ten years ago, a 10,000 yuan household was rare, but now, 10,000 yuan can be spent casually. Therefore, the stock is relatively safe overall. Although the main force has recently doubled. But eat not fat now intervenes. Compared to the long-term holding cost of the main force, it is not too high, so it is not dangerous. ”

Ding Xu said as he made a historical trend chart of Jinshan Kai in the group.

From the perspective of post-compounding, Jinshankai's stock price is a typical roller coaster trend. In 1993, the daily closing price was 15.1O yuan, and then it fell to 4.o2 yuan, which was lower than the market price of 6 yuan. After that, it consolidated at the bottom for many years. After a low of 5.96 yuan in January 1998, it began to rise sharply, starting a wave of bull market, and the highest price in 2oo1 was 54.21 yuan, an increase of more than 8 times.

After that, Jinshan opened at a high level for nearly two years, and the main force completed the shipment, and then began to dive sharply in the form of a cliff-like decline, and continued to consolidate at the bottom, falling to 4.88 yuan in 2oo5 years.

With the big bull market that started in 2oo5. Jinshan Kai rose sharply again, rising to 44.48 yuan in 2oo7 in one go. The increase is the same as the previous bull market, which is also 8 times.

With the opening of a new round of bear market, Jinshan Kai fell off a cliff again, falling to 7.48 yuan on November 7, 2oo8 in one breath, and then with the improvement of the market, and other Disney concept stocks danced, in early December 2oo8, one breath pulled out five price limits, the highest rose to 18 yuan, and then doubled, and then called back, the current post-compounding price is 14 yuan, 23% from the high.

"These two waves of large-scale roller coasters, I don't know how many retail investors have been put on the top of the mountain." Ding Xu sighed with emotion, and at the same time took a few pictures of the chip distribution column in different periods.

This time, Ding Xu adjusted the K-line chart to the trend of the past two years and switched to the pre-weighting method to express the stock price more conveniently.

The chip distribution column shows that when the high point of 18 yuan in March 2oo8 fell to 7 yuan in September 2oo8, although the stock price fell by more than half, most retail investors still adopted a dead cover method, and most of the chips on the chip distribution bar were concentrated in 1o to 18 yuan, forming a dense hedge plate. But when it fell to the low price of 2.99 yuan on November 7, 2oo8, the chips of 1o-18 yuan were reduced by most of them, indicating that when the stock price fell to only one-sixth, most retail investors were completely desperate, worried that the stock price would fall to two or even more than one, so they cut their positions with tears. Only about one-fifth of retail investors are still holding on.

But as the stock price rose from 2.99 yuan to 7.4o yuan, especially after five consecutive price limits, it suddenly made the fifth of the nail households panic, for fear that some of the costs that had come back would be dropped again, so they surrendered and completely handed over the chips in their hands. On the chip distribution bar, the chip bar above $7 has almost completely disappeared. At present, most of the chips are concentrated in the area of 6-7 yuan, and there are a small number of chips of 4-5 yuan below, which should be the bottom position of the main force.

"The trends of Jinshan Kai and Suning Electric are relatively similar, both are wide range shocks, typical roller coaster trends. Moreover, when it continues to rise, the bottom chips continue to move up, and the main line of defense continues to move forward, and when it falls, it is also extremely resolute and falls greatly. Since the two big rises have increased by 8 times, although the main force has used more than ten years to operate this stock, the profits obtained should also be considerable, and the trend of the two roller coasters, as well as the changes in chips are very similar, this should be the same main force, it is a long village. Ding Xu made his own judgment, "And now, not long after it has just come out of the bottom, it is relatively safe, and there should be room for the market to rise in the future." ”

"That's good." He breathed a sigh of relief and said with a smile, "I finally didn't get slapped in the face by a miracle." ”

"Don't rush to conclusions, this is just a rough judgment from the long-term trend and the chip distribution bar, or it belongs to my first move." Ding Xu said with a smile.

"Let's analyze it next." Eat not fat urged, "Tell me about your specific analysis ideas, let's all refer to it." ”

"The second trick is to see more things. First click F1O and take a look at the company profile column to get a general idea of the company. From the public information displayed in this column, we know that Jinshankai's total share capital is 353 million, with 100 million A shares in circulation, which is considered a small-cap stock, and has more than 100 million B shares. It belongs to the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transport equipment manufacturing industries. But it is not included in any index, which means that it should not be doing very well, and it may even be loss-making. ”

Ding Xu checked the information and said in the group, "The registration and office addresses are on it. Haishi. The business scope is relatively miscellaneous. That is, real estate development and operation. Urban and green construction. Renovation of old areas, commercial development, municipal infrastructure construction, property, warehousing, logistics operation and management; Production and sales of bicycles, mopeds, two-wheeled motorcycles, strollers, fitness equipment, bicycle industry equipment and molds; Ancillary products related to the above products. But. Its main business is bicycle and car accessories. ”

"What does this mean?" Asked if you want to eat fat.

"The office is located on the top. The sea belongs to the above. Offshore stocks. Its main business is bicycle and car accessories, from these two industries, Kingsoft Kai was founded in 1993 by the original. The whole of the sea phoenix bicycle restructured, the older stockholders may know that in the seventies and eighties, the bicycle factory produced the phoenix brand, Feida brand bicycles can be described as well-known at home and abroad, once became a necessity for marriage, known as one of the four major pieces. However, at present, with the economic exhibition, the bicycle has been regarded as a sunset industry. The automotive industry is still relatively prosperous. It's just that it only produces car accessories, and it doesn't account for a large proportion. It is estimated that the overall profit margin is not high, and the performance may be relatively poor, and there is no room for theme and imagination. But how exactly, we have to look at the relevant information. ”

Ding Xu said, "Click on the financial analysis column, look at the earnings per share and simple financial statements in recent years, now its profits in recent years are indeed relatively poor, semi-annual reports often lose money, but the magic is that at the end of each year can turn losses into profits, it seems that there must be a mystery in this, may rely on local government subsidies or non-recurring profits and losses to make up for losses." ”

"What is non-recurring profit or loss?" Buying shares and buying the bottom raises a somewhat novice question.

To put it simply, it refers to the income and expenditure of the company that is not directly related to the business operation, and the income and expenditure that are related to the business but affect the normal profitability of the company due to its nature, amount or frequency. This income includes the sale of land, the sale of subsidiaries, grandchildren's companies, and even the sale of shares invested in other listed companies. For example, a listed company bought a lot of the original shares of a securities company, and once the main business was not good and it was going to lose money throughout the year, it suddenly sold some of the securities company's shares in December to turn losses into profits. But what happens when these stocks are sold out? After all, it is not a long-term solution, it can only show that the company's main business is not good and lacks competitiveness in the short term. Ding Xu explained, and then used Baidu to search for the annual reports of the past two years and took a look, and suddenly had the answer in his heart.

"You see, Jinshan Kai's 2oo6 annual report, the total profit is 8.65 million, the net profit is 6.46 million, but the net profit after deducting non-recurring profits and losses is a loss of 26.91 million, and the overall operating profit is also a loss of 9.22 million. Among them, the investment income was 3.23 million yuan, and the subsidy income was 7.97 million yuan, adding up to more than 1100,000 yuan. ”

Ding Xu said while extracting some key content into the group, "In the 2oo7 annual report, although the net profit is 5.96 million, the operating profit is a loss of 470000, and the net profit after deducting the non-recurring profit and loss is a loss of 59000000. The reason why the loss was able to turn around at the end of the year was due to the profit and loss on the disposal of non-current assets of 64.43 million. Although I didn't check whether it was a land sale or something to sell, it was obviously just a way to turn around the loss. Just like cutting meat to feed a tiger, sooner or later the meat will have to be cut. In addition, the semi-annual report of 2oo8 achieved a net profit of 120,000 yuan, which was better than the loss in the same period last year, but it was mainly due to the increase in non-operating income from the relocation and liquidation of fixed assets of the company's Huacao production base. Although the third quarter report of 2oo8 continued to maintain profitability, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit was a loss of 1.86o. The annual report has not yet come out, but there will always be some government subsidies at the end of the year, and it is estimated that it can still maintain meager profits and continue to support it. ”

"I'll go, this is the legendary garbage stock. I just took a cursory look at it, and saw that it has been profitable every year in the past few years, but I didn't expect that there are so many twists and turns, no wonder more than ten years have passed, and the stock price has only risen so little compared to the market price. Alas, I didn't even look closely at its main business, I can't imagine that it is the production of bicycles, and who still rides bicycles now. Phew, bad luck! After listening to Ding Xu's analysis, whether he ate fat or not felt that he was as disgusting as eating a fly, he settled down, and asked unwillingly, "Then does it have any theme?" ”

"It's very simple to look at the theme, click the right mouse button on the K-line chart, select the plate to which it belongs, and see what plate it belongs to to to know a rough idea." Ding Xu glanced at the screen and said, "It belongs to the upper . The sea sector, the cultural, educational and leisure sector, the transportation equipment manufacturing industry and other sectors, but it also belongs to the financial reform and shareholding in the financial sector, and the participation in finance, which can be regarded as a hot spot in recent years, and there are some themes. In addition, it is also the Disney concept plate. ”

"Seeing that it likes to sell land so much, maybe there will be a lot of land near Disney Park in the future, after all, this is an old state-owned enterprise, and the places it occupies are generally wider, and most of them are prime locations." When the book walker heard this, his eyes lit up, and he immediately searched on the Internet and posted a paragraph, "Jinshan Kai is on . The only listed company under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Haijinshan District, the company closely focuses on the functional positioning of Jinshan District, and has obtained new exhibitions in the construction of industrial parks, infrastructure transformation, and construction of commercial and cultural facilities. Disney's settlement on the entrance. The sea is expected to promote the company's asset appreciation! ”

"Well, presumably this factor is the one that has driven this wave of rapid doubling of the market." Ding Xu nodded and said, "Let's put this concept away first, let's continue to look at its basic situation." ”

……………………………………… Dividing Line.......................................

(Heartfelt thanks to 8 hardcore book friends such as "Book Friends 141212177O117, Yiyi Quest, RSNMB, Sniper Board, GBZO, Xuehai Wuya 63, Xiaohe Flowing Water Family, "Rising Three Crazy" and other 8 hardcore book friends generously rewarded as the alliance leader of this book, welcome to enter the alliance leader group (miracle group) family exchange.) 、

Thanks to "Shuo? The two alliance leaders of the world and "haonetg" once again gave a large reward of 1,000 yuan, thanks to Zhimalu, Haibin and other alliance leaders for their re-rewards.

As an aside, during the one-hour discussion time of the alliance main group this afternoon, stocks such as the brokerage sector and PetroChina were discussed. I think in fact, stocks like PetroChina and Agricultural Bank of China have been rising in turns recently, and they are also medium and long-term stocks, so it's good to be patient and hold them. As for the question of whether PetroChina will fill the shortfall, there is really no need to worry, just let the profits run.

There's something to do tonight.,I'm just coding a chapter now.,Immediately go write a disk analysis.,And then upload it to the group text jiàn.。 You don't have to stay up late and wait, let's watch it tomorrow morning.

I wish you all continued great earnings tomorrow. (To be continued......)

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