Chapter 309: Value Speculation I
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In March 2004, the small partner company was reorganized to a certain extent, and the investment and financial management personnel who were originally subordinate to the financial department were transferred to another newly established subsidiary, the small partner value investment management company. Pen ~ fun ~ pavilion www.biquge.info
This company came out because the finance department confuses investment with daily financial management, which is easy to cause risks. Therefore, the partner company has set up a financial investment department. Originally, the finance department could only carry out day-to-day financial management and was allowed to get involved in investment.
The small partner value investment management company has starting assets equivalent to 300 million yuan, and the number of employees is tentatively set at 5, and the team will not increase much in the future.
After all, there are only a handful of people in the world's best investment teams who play a role. For example, Warren Buffett's team is expected to be irreplaceable only by Buffett and Munger, and the others are not so important. At the same time, for decades, Buffett's team has been a dozen people, and the number of teams has not increased as assets have grown tens of thousands of times.
The investment team, many times, is not more than people, and sometimes, it only needs to be reduced to one person! For example, Wang Qinian alone can kill almost all the investment teams in the world in seconds!
The reason why we want to set up an investment and financial management team is because the two driving forces for the growth of enterprises are the ability to operate and manage their main business, and the other part is the vision of investment.
Making the most of your investment may be more rewarding than running your own business honestly, c,w□ww. At the same time, the vision of investment is also an effective means to test the strategic vision of an enterprise.
If a company can have the ability to invest in the arts, it can repeatedly find the outlet in the capital market and obtain a huge return on investment. Then, the company often has a long-term strategic vision and knows where the future direction is.
Maybe in the future, the main business of the small partner will not work, and it will be necessary to invest in a more promising subsidiary. as the direction of transformation.
It is for this reason that an exclusive investment company has to be established.
Wang Qinian is self-aware, and his investment talent is fake and time-sensitive. In another ten years, his investment vision will not be so accurate.
Therefore, Wang Qinian is also deliberately cultivating and discovering talents in investment. If he develops a true grandmaster-level investment genius, then he will be carefully cultivated and will take over his class in the future.
The office is in the country. However, it opened an account overseas, and its investment scope was mainly in the financial markets of Hong Kong and the United States.
Because, Wang Qinian only has a slight idea of the financial markets in Hong Kong and the United States. As for financial markets such as the United Kingdom, France, and Japan, what are the companies listed, and those companies are awesome. He was not impressed at all by the greatness of those companies.
Wang Qinian is generally only familiar with some speculative opportunities in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, especially Chinese concept stocks, which are listed overseas, are undervalued. More impressive.
For example, Hong Kong's stock market is relatively open. Most of the companies that went public later were mainland enterprises, and their market capitalization accounted for half of the Hong Kong stock market.
Because Hong Kong stocks have less money and more listed companies, the stock price is easy to be depressed. It has long been one of the cheapest stock markets in the world. Foreign capital, which often speculates on stock markets around the world, uses the Hong Kong market as a safe haven. bought a bunch of Hong Kong stocks, and then, speculated on arbitrage and left.
Participants in Hong Kong stocks. The mainstream capital is overseas capital. The hype arbitrage of the first ** is gone, and a stubble is harvested. Even so, Hong Kong stocks are still best invested in the market.
Why, cheap is the last word, a large number of undervalued companies, if the price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio are low enough, but the dividends are enough, there is no need to speculate on stock price arbitrage and leave. It is completely possible to hold it for a long time and share the company's growth and dividends.
Hong Kong stocks are not only a paradise for speculators, but also a paradise for value investment.
Take U.S. stocks as a range, because there are many investment targets in U.S. stocks, although there are often crazy and irrational bubbles, you can always find undervalued varieties.
As for the A-share market, since it is relatively young, the mainstream investment style is naturally speculative. The existence of a large number of investors has caused the market stock price to fall very cheaply, and the time period of gold everywhere is very long, but many leeks have cut their flesh and left, and they dare not pick up gold everywhere. When it rises, it is often very urgent and fierce, and it will create a huge continuous increase in a short period of time, and countless speculators chase the rise when they see it, and more leeks rush up, chasing expensive stocks, and they are over-rally, and they collapse again. After the crash, it often falls too much, until no one dares to pick up gold everywhere, and some people begin to tentatively pick up bargains, the next round of bull market.
Although A-shares are speculative markets, they are mainly value investments. Analyze the economy and industries from the top down, and analyze the business from the bottom up. Choosing investment targets based on valuation and business philosophy, rather than chasing up and down based on market sentiment fluctuations, can also stand on the side with a high winning rate.
Graham, the originator of value investing, referred to value investors as smart investors.
Smart investors will choose to stand on the side with a higher long-term winning rate, that is, value investing. The winners and losers of speculators are determined by the wins and losses of other speculators on the casino.
A smart value investor is determined by the operation and growth of the enterprise.
In this way, they are out of the category of gamblers and naturally receive positive returns in the long run.
Of course, Graham is not alone in being a smart investor. He was not alone in the theory, but most of the co-workers, and in the end, after summarizing, Graham spoke comprehensively and thoroughly.
Although value investing is advertised, small partner companies are not limited to Graham (the originator of value investing, with a margin of safety, growth, value and risk control), Fisher (the grandmaster of growth stocks), Warren Buffett (Graham + Fisher's heir), Windsor Fund (investment in unpopular stocks with low price-earnings ratios that have not been paid attention to for a long time), and the Davis family (a family of stock gods, long-term value investing for generations, and the family's investment theory has been written into the textbook of Wall Street) and other concepts.
In fact, there are also Soros (hedging), Simmons (founder of Renaissance Technology Company, quantitative investment master, return on Lynch, Buffett, Soros), David. Svensson (founder of portfolio rebalancing theory) and so on.
It's called value investing, but it's actually a typical value speculation.
Of course, investment and speculation, as long as they are within the scope of reason, there is no need to distinguish so clearly. Even some value investing gurus can be short-term speculators when they are young. For example, when Warren Buffett was young, he was a speculator.
In Buffett's early years, it was not actually an investment, but a speculation. The two years at Graham can be described as Buffett's most profitable two years, with frequent arbitrage and trading almost every day. According to Warren Buffett's own account, in 1954, he worked at Graham & Co. to arbitrage the experience of Rockwood, a company that produced chocolate in Brooklyn, in principle, the company had adopted a last-in-first-out inventory evaluation method since 1941, when cocoa beans were 50 cents per pound, and in 1954, the price of cocoa beans rose to 64 cents due to temporary out-of-stock, so Rockwood wanted to sell the valuable cocoa bean inventory on its books before the price fell, but if it was to sell the goods directlyRockwood decided to cease its cocoa butter business and return 13 million pounds of cocoa beans to shareholders, and the company was willing to exchange cocoa beans for a portion of the shares. Each share can be exchanged for 80 pounds of beans.
For several weeks, Warren Buffett was busy buying stocks, exchanging beans, and then selling beans, and often went to the Schroeder Trust Company to exchange stock certificates for warehouse custody notes, and the profit was not bad, and the only cost was the subway ticket.
This is purely speculative, but in a few weeks, the speculative rate of return has been set several times.
It can be seen that as long as it is profitable, value investors are also very willing to speculate.
Warren Buffett was the happiest when he was selling beans, working in the world's most powerful investment firm, and learning from Graham, the most powerful investment guru. But the good times didn't last long, Graham wanted to retire, and felt that after his retirement, Graham's company would not exist. As a result, Graham & Co., the largest investment institution on Wall Street at that time, was dissolved. Ge Lao, after dissolving the company, leisurely enjoy retirement.
And Buffett was very uncomfortable back then, he seemed to want to work for Graham for the rest of his life, and wanted to be Graham's heir. As a result, Graham felt that if he retired, the company would lose its soul and be meaningless, so he simply disbanded the company and ignored that there were actually investment masters in the company who were no less than Graham himself, and could be trained to become an heir.
Warren Buffett left Graham & Co. before he began to create his own legend. The company founded by Warren Buffett is almost the same as Graham's company back then, mainly relying on Buffett's investment ability to continue to snowball.
The only difference is that Buffett has been healthy and has no plans to retire. In addition, he does not plan to dissolve the company after quitting his post, but has been observing and cultivating his investment masters before his death, hoping that after he leaves, Berkshire Hathaway will continue to exist and continue to create returns for shareholders who hold shares.
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