Chapter 29: The Big Short (16)
"We just got the news that Standard and Moody's have downgraded the credit ratings of the United Group long-term bonds, what is your comment on that?"
"This is their right, and we have reservations about it, and the United Group has the confidence, ability and determination to defend his market position." Contini disagreed, "As for what the specific measures are, it is inconvenient to disclose them for the time being, but they are the trade secrets of the group." The group has made many achievements in Europe, and the president is also considered to be experienced in a hundred battles, what kind of scene have I not seen? You reporters don't hear a little wind is rain, at least we don't care about these rating adjustments! ……”
There was a boo and laughter below, the president really didn't know how to be modest at all compared to the old tycoons, such as Rockefeller and Morgan, but this is in line with the president's personality - he is still young, he is only 26 years old this year, what are these tycoons doing when they are 26 years old? I'm afraid I won't even know my name, right? At the very least, it is enough for the president to be on a par with them now, and even more suitable than them to be the representative of market leaders and public opinion leaders in some cases.
"Last question, you have expressed your disbelief in the stock market, but the vast majority of people hold the opposite view, what do you think about this?"
Contini smiled: "Isn't that normal? There is always a different opinion on everything, and the same is true for the stock market – if everyone is bullish on the price of the stock, who is selling it to you? ”
This sentence made many people fall into contemplation, and also made the topic controversial, journalists, who doesn't want news, controversial news is good news!
In the evening, Hoover and Mellon received the content of Contini's speech at the press conference, and couldn't help frowning: "What does he mean by this?" United Group wants to reduce its shares? ”
Mellon said: "I don't think it's like it, he's just showing confidence in stabilizing depositors at the expense of reducing his holdings - in fact, there is no problem with the liquidity of Union Bank, I have to say that there is a problem, it's just a mismatch of terms and regions, but who doesn't have this kind of thing?" I received news that he had also ordered a lot of industrial equipment in Germany, and it was impossible for the Germans to lend him money, so he had to rely on the Union Bank to arrange the money, so as long as the run pressure was eliminated, he could close the stall. Of course, he will definitely reduce his holdings of the $500 million, after all, there is a very good price. ”
"But this threat to reduce holdings will cause instability in the stock market......"
"Your Excellency, the most important thing now is to let the run pass."
"How do you get there? Let the Fed give up? ”
"It's impossible, the Fed exists for U.S. financial stability, not for a high-point stock market in the U.S.......," Mellon shrugged, "Isn't it nice to be like this today?" Take a swoop and then pull up, wash the plate by the way, and carry out some risk warnings, according to common sense, slow rise and fall is a bull market, if you really fall slowly, you should pay attention. ”
"Okay, I won't talk about the stock market for now, how do you say to let the run pass?"
"1-2 days is not enough, you have to let these people queue for 3 days, and then find that they can take out the money, and the run pressure will naturally be reduced." Mellon explained, "The Fed did issue a risk warning, and the United Group responded adequately, and both sides were right." ”
"So who's wrong?"
"That's right! The Fed is worried that the Union Bank will not be able to withdraw the money, but now that the Union Bank has reduced its holdings of stocks on the one hand, and on the other hand, it has the United Group as the backing, so it is not important whether it can withdraw the money; The United Group is worried about the damage to its credibility, as long as it can cope with the run and domestic capital flows, its credibility will only increase, and the funds will come back. Mellon comforted him, "It's good to wait and see, the other big banks are discussing the establishment of a stabilization fund tonight, and when the United Bank is almost out of cash, I will ask the other banks to lend a hand." ”
This sentence seems to be impartial on the surface, but in fact, other banks have already greeted Mellon: let the Treasury not get involved in the bailout of Union Bank so quickly, and should first put a little pressure on the bank, and then everyone will reach out again, and Mellon also agreed - he is also a big consortium behind him, and the Minister of Finance is only part-time, if it is not for the rights, with his identity and status, the ghost will come to work for this salary.
At the same time as the United Group's press conference, Citibank managing director Mitchell, Chase National Bank president Albert Wiggin, Guaranty Trust Company president William Porter, Morgan & Co. partner Thomas Lamont, First National Bank president George Baker Jr., and Bankers Trust President Sward Prosey were gathering to discuss how to set up a stabilization fund. The most typical of these investment companies in today's decline is the batch of shares of the United Group's debt-to-equity swap, which has touched the conversion price many times today, and although it finally barely closed on the conversion price, it means that the year's gains have been wiped out.
Some people have proposed that the United Group should buy back shares to stabilize the stock price, while others have expressed different views, the former is aimed at maintaining vested interests, and the latter is aimed at being able to find ways to control a part of the United Group's industries.
Mitchell has received a clear instruction from the board of directors to take the latter attitude: "Union Bank is currently dealing with a run, so it is impossible for the United Group to use the funds from the reduction for share repurchases, and you should pay attention to the fact that Ziano Jr. said that he reduced his holdings by 500 million shares, in fact, we know that he has leverage, and after the reduction, it is probably more than 100 million, at most 200 million funds, which I think is only enough for him to deal with the run at most, and it is impossible to take it out to buy back shares." ”
"No wonder they're reluctant to participate in stock market stabilization funds."
"That's because little Ziano himself is not optimistic." Potter pouted, "He'll have to prove himself right, or he'll have endless questions waiting for him at future press conferences." ”
"Do you want to blame the sell-off at Union Bank for the decline?"
"I don't see it that way, on the one hand, such an announcement seems to be a contradiction with our Union Bank, and on the other hand, it inappropriately strengthens the voice of the United Group - they sell the market and fall, is little Ziano the baton of the stock market?"
Lamont analyzed: "This is just a fuse - in fact, the shares of Union Bank have long been in our expected sell-off plan, and it is unexpectedly that they have only sold them now, and President Ziano's follow-up views on the stock market determine what position they will take, and I don't think Union Bank will participate in the bailout - they themselves need to be treated!" ”
"It's not a big deal if you don't have Union Bank involved, and it doesn't matter if Bank of America doesn't participate." George Baker Jr. shrugged, "It's enough for a few of us." ”
Prosey added: "But I think there is some truth in Xiao Ziano's words, the current 10% margin is too low, the slightest wind and grass will cause forced liquidation, today we liquidated more than 20 customers, the headache is not the market rebound after the liquidation and caused customer disputes, the headache is how to protect in the violent market shock not to wear the position - today there are two positions in fact in the biggest decline has been broken, fortunately later pulled up." ”
"Then raise it by 2 percentage points, one this week, and one again next week."
"Agreed!"
"I agree!"
Before the market opened on September 17, the six companies jointly issued a brief press conference announcing the ...... The heads of several of our financial institutions studied the volatility of the stock market yesterday and the trend of selling at low prices, and we believe that the overall situation is fine, it is the technical conditions that caused the adjustment of the day, the overall risk of the stock market is controllable, and the fundamentals are good. Of course, in order to further smooth out volatility and reduce losses, we have developed the following measures:
First, each member contributed US$40 million, a total of US$240 million to form a stability maintenance fund;
second, increase the margin level, from 10% to 11% this week, and another 1 percentage point next week;
Third, strengthen communication with market stakeholders to avoid unnecessary misunderstandings.
The reporter interviewed several tycoons, and their answers were much more boring than Contini's, most of them were slippery, and they could be understood how to understand, only Mitchell said a few words: "It is normal for everyone to have different views on the market outlook, just as the president swore that there was no problem with the Union Bank, but the Fed still issued a risk warning, and the people still went to withdraw money, the same thing, all interest groups have different views, and only time will prove everything......
The time to prove it all was fast in coming, and in anticipation, the stock market officially opened, and everyone held their breath to watch today's market performance.
Due to Contini's stable statement at all costs, there are 6 banks' statements, so the stock market opened with a gap of 413 points, and soon rushed to 420 points, but Livermore saw very clearly, although the stock index is slowly climbing, but the sell-off began to gradually increase, rather than as before as the stock index climbed and triggered more follow-up disks, he knew that after yesterday's decline, everyone's psychological expectations have completely changed. Stocks in the United family have received a lot of boost, but bond prices have fallen steadily due to the downgrade of long-term bonds, and have fallen below the $90 mark.
He tentatively got traders to absorb more than $3 million, and then put it aside - this is not the main battlefield at the moment, and the bonds will only go crazy when the panic is over.
At a quarter of 10 o'clock, the stock index launched a third attack against 425 points: stand up, fall, stand up again, fall down again. There was no 3-minute time to stabilize at 425 points. At this time, Livermore decided that the time was ripe and shouted, "Go on the attack!" ”
Ps: Please ask for a monthly pass, if you pass 1400 today, you will have another one in the evening......