Chapter 30: The Big Short
Like a majestic general, Livermore gave an order, and the overwhelming short positions poured out instantly, charging towards the stock market one by one, and the United Trust traded 500 million shares within 9 minutes, not only bringing back all the short positions harvested yesterday, but also expanding the short positions to more than $3.5 billion, and the index that was struggling at 425 points just now was quickly broken down, 420 points were lost, and 410 points began to be urgent.
At that moment, he seemed to have the feeling that the world was under control, but he quickly calmed down - this is the president's career, he is just a person responsible for management, but don't put it in the wrong position, don't look for him Livermore, the president can find other investors, but without the United Group, he can't get such a favorable position and abundant capital, just the president can effectively shout to the market is a huge wealth, not everyone has the capital to open such a big press conference and introduce many reporters.
"Buy, buy, buy!"
Seeing the flood of the index like a burst embankment, the traders of the stability maintenance fund woke up like a dream and began to buy in large quantities. The rally at the start of this morning was just a rhetorical blow to the Stability Fund, which has not bought a dollar of stock so far – is it true that these bankers can't see that the stock points are at a high level? They are just to protect their own interests, and they can use their mouths to fool and never use real money to invest, but now they are overwhelmed, and their posture is more fierce than yesterday, and they can't do it if they don't invest.
At 10:46, the stability maintenance fund has received almost 500 million US dollars - at least 200 million of which are empty orders of the United Trust, and now the two sides have become rivals.
At 10:54, the short position of the United Trust has reached $3.8 billion, which is very close to the ideal state of $4 billion, Francisco walked in and asked Livermore, "How's it going?" ”
"Someone is sucking goods, I guess it's the handiwork of the stability maintenance fund."
Francisco smiled: "Can this rabble work together?" The president has authorized that if you feel that the market is about the same, you can continue to reduce your shareholdings, first reducing your holdings in United Petroleum Algeria......"
"How much can I reduce my holdings?"
"Clearance allowed!"
"Clearance?" Livermore's whole body stiffened, there were almost $600 million in stocks here, and he asked cautiously, "Doesn't the president want this oil field?" ”
"You think too much...... "Francisco laughed, "where is the Algerian oil pipeline?" Where is the port of shipment? And where are the oil reserve depots built? ”
It dawned on Livermore: these are all in Libya and Tripoli, and even if Contini doesn't have a stake, no one else can easily take control - the president can make you not get a drop of oil out! Even if the United Group lets you out, the rental fee for these essential facilities will be staggering.
What the? You say you don't want to start anew? Yes, you go to the French and talk to Algiers and see if it can be fixed for you in 2 years. Two years means that more than 10 million tons of crude oil cannot be extracted, and hundreds of millions of dollars will slip away.
After figuring out this joint, he immediately began to call for the smashing of the market with United Oil: the $20 million shell was instantly discharged, smashing Algerian oil shares below the conversion price, and then driving a number of oil, energy and exploration stocks to dive; The stability maintenance fund is just about to pick up, and another 30 million goods are overwhelming, and in the face of the high-level dive of the energy sector with a market value of nearly 7 billion, everyone no longer knows what to take.
Five minutes later, Francisco told Livermore that he could also reduce his holdings in United Pharmaceuticals.
"Is this also going to be reduced? It's a real performer...... "Livermore exclaimed, "it's unique in the world." ”
The president thinks that the price-to-earnings ratio of 157 times is too high, and it takes 157 years to continue to earn to recoup the cost, but this patent is only 5 years...... Five years later, generic drugs will be worthless when they hit the market in a big way. Francisco smiled, "If you like, I'll give it to you at 140 times P/E." ”
"Don't, don't ......," Livermore said with a hippie smile, "We have a saying in our industry, don't fall in love with stocks, no matter how good a stock is, it's just a symbol." ”
"That's right, charge......"
"Brothers, rush ah......" A trader threw to the climax, and couldn't help shouting out, with the 40 million United Pharmaceutical sell orders pouring out, a bunch of so-called high-performing stocks and technology stocks on weekdays collapsed across the board - leading stocks, the most authentic, and the most in short supply United Pharmaceutical were all sold, and they had no reason not to fall with these pseudo technology stocks and concept stocks.
410 points, 400 points, 390 points, the three passes instantly broke down.
Contini looked at the numbers on the telex and received a report from the trading seat that more than $10 billion had been traded in stocks all morning, equivalent to 15% of the entire stock market value, which is more than yesterday's trading volume, and according to this posture, it is possible to break through $20 billion today.
"Add more fire, break through yesterday's low, and go to United Motorcycle, Union Bank ......"
As the ferocious sell-off continued, the entire trading and telex channel was blocked, and the overall delay was more than an hour, and the stock index was only knocked on the door of the 380-point mark by the former enemy's telecommunications department.
After another 6 minutes, the United Trust traded 700 million again, and now the index has been below 380 points, the lowest has reached 376.25 points, and the short position of the United Trust has successfully exceeded 4 billion, and the book floating profit has been as high as 1 billion.
"Prepare for the harvest, first collect a little Union Bank shares, and then a little more bonds......"
"Dear depositor friends, the Bank has just received the news, the stock market fell sharply again today, has broken through yesterday's lowest point of 383 points, due to the blockage of the exchange channel, the telex system data lags by 70 minutes, the current actual point is 376 points, in order to protect everyone's interests as much as possible, the Bank will be announced, please inform each other, if there are depositors who need to sell stocks, please contact your broker as soon as possible......"
As if the situation was not serious enough, the loudspeaker of the Union Bank suddenly broadcast, and many people fell again as if nothing had happened...... And there are still many people who are pale and have fallen more than yesterday? Many people have already made a margin call, so should they do it again today?
Lose your marbles!
Mitchell and the others quickly gathered to discuss countermeasures, and he roared hysterically in his office: "Why did you fall so easily? Didn't we just announce a bailout? ”
"It should be that yesterday's selling momentum has not been fully released, so while it opened high this morning, someone sold again."
"I always felt that something was wrong in there...... "George Baker Jr. said, "it seems that the joint stock fell first, and there are big players selling it-for-tat?" ”
"Yes, I can see that it was Algerian oil that took the lead in diving, and then energy, machinery, performance and even steel began to fall."
"Ask little Ziano ......," Lamont said, "he threatened to sell his stock yesterday, so he won't sell it today, right?" ”
Mitchell immediately dialed the phone, but it was Francisco who answered, and he cautiously asked about the word selling, but he didn't expect the other side to answer very cheerfully: "Yes, we reduced our holdings today, almost more than $300 million...... Why reduce holdings? …… Isn't that obvious? You don't know the situation to deal with the run and the maturity of the loan, yesterday a total of 120 million US dollars were withdrawn, and from this morning to now, another 25 million US dollars are gone, which almost drains our liquidity, but fortunately, the 500 million US dollars from the last reduction can still be handled, and the rest depends on these......"
Mitchell said with a gloomy face: "If you don't have enough money, you can borrow from us......"
"Your interest rate is too high, we can......'t afford it," Francisco laughed, "Besides, the stock market is too high, and appropriately reducing some holdings is conducive to suppressing the overheated atmosphere, reducing the pressure on the Federal Reserve, and saving them from staring at us every day. I want to give President Hoover a little face......"
Contini next to him gave a thumbs up - this pot is well shaken!
"But we just set up a fund today to maintain stability, so you will take the lead in selling......"
"You can't say that." Francisco said, "It's not me who took the lead, the market volume this morning is more than 10 billion, someone is selling early in the morning, and we only started to follow the trend after 10 minutes to reduce the ......"
Contini gave another thumbs up – it was Livermore who took the lead!
"You ......" Mitchell was said that there was no way, the interest rate nobles were unwilling to borrow and rather reduce their holdings, which hit everyone's weakness, but if he lent it out at a low interest rate, he was unwilling - why?
"It's okay if you don't participate in stability maintenance, but you can't take the lead in sabotage," Mitchell finally said helplessly, "Everyone should have the same goal............
"Understood, understood, I'll go and persuade the president to buy some and come back......"
"That's good, that's good, why don't we have a drink together in the evening?"
"Look at the press conference, it's really hard to get out." Francisco said apologetically, "I'm sorry to say to everyone, it's a bit of a neglect on this eventful time......"
Putting down the microphone, Mitchell's face turned pale: "Sure enough, the United Group reduced its holdings, and it reduced its holdings by more than 300 million shares in the morning, on the grounds that it was prepared to deal with the run - this is what little Chiano publicly announced last night." ”
The others frowned, feeling a little tricky.
"Could it be that Union Bank's liquidity has reached such a critical point?"
"It's really not optimistic, I suspect that Standard and Moody's should also know about this news, and they may downgrade their ratings further, not necessarily today."
"So what do we do? Do you still buy it? Or follow the toss? ”
"You can't throw it, if you throw it, the market will really be over, let's see the wind direction in the afternoon!"
The wind direction was still bad in the afternoon, but after the mass release in the morning, the pressure in the afternoon was not as great. In fact, most of the sell-offs in the late morning are passive sell-offs that follow the trend - because many accounts are below the warning line, or even to the liquidation line, it is not possible to reduce their holdings, and the more they are reduced, the fewer the stock indexes.
By 2 o'clock in the afternoon, the stock index briefly broke through 370 points, to 368 points, and by this time it could barely close at 361 points, which is a very important point for the Dow Jones, not only the 60-day moving average cut in, but also the bull and bear dividing line - if you start from the highest point of the stock market, it will fall by nearly 20% to 361 points, which can no longer be measured by technical adjustments, that is from bulls to bears.
However, all parties in the market tacitly did not continue to fight, but began to rise slowly.
The stability maintenance fund is to defend its own position; The United Group is preparing to recycle it - the leeks can't be cut too hard all at once, and no one will play if it's too ruthless, so it should be closed at the end of the game, giving people a certain amount of confidence, so that they can put the margin in again, and then continue to fight the day after tomorrow, so that they can cut it stubble by stubble. Uprooting is enjoyable, but it's not good for long-term shearing, and Livermore thinks it's worth looking at the wind.
At 3:06, the long-lost buying order finally appeared, at this time the floating profit on the book of the joint trust exceeded 1.3 billion US dollars, and the traders were struggling to buy back the most ruthless stocks according to Livermore's instructions to close the position, and harvested 100 million US dollars in 15 minutes, and then part of it went into the reserve funds, and part of it went to the bond account to buy long-term bonds - bonds also fell sharply when they plunged today, not that there was any emergency situation in bonds, but that many small and medium-sized institutions in order to maintain the stock market space, had to reduce the bond holdings in order to free up margin - after all, the bond range is not as fast as the stock falls, and the fall is fast, so Livermore methodically absorbed 50 million long-term bonds, together with the 40 million absorbed yesterday, almost 90 million has been repurchased, and there is still only more than 100 million outside, and at this rate, it will be absorbed in another 2-3 days.
At 3:38, the United Trust closed one-sixth of its position and harvested another $100 million, and then the $100 million was also divided into two batches, one part was returned to the Union Bank, so that the latter could return the money borrowed from other banks, and the other part was repurchased to buy back the 300 million shares that were reduced in the morning, of course, it was impossible to buy them all back, according to Francisco's request, only symbolically repurchased nearly 80 million and did not move, and the $80 million shares were worth 110 million at the peak of the morning sell-off.
In short, through the means of selling high and buying low, the United Group has steadily pocketed 30 million profits in the case of total reductions - this is enough to cope with the run in the afternoon, as for the stability maintenance fund, Francisco also feels that he can explain, we did repurchase, as for the amount of repurchase, don't be nitpicky, it would be good to be able to repurchase, 80 million US dollars is not a lot, the stability maintenance fund was not a mouth cannon at the beginning? In fact, this is really wrong to blame the stability maintenance fund, they have won nearly 600 million positions, and they went directly to 3 times leverage.
If it weren't for the fact that the scruples had not yet reached the last moment of the general offensive, and that he still needed to make a false deal with these Wall Street tycoons, Francisco would not have paid attention to them at all - we would have seen through your little caution about taking advantage of the fire!